SPX / SPY - Update - No China Deal

OANDA:SPX500USD   S&P 500 Index
SPX confirming downtrend this morning - NO RETRACEMENT :)
Filter Dots show trend is already mid-level. We can get to blue support line without a break.
Watch for price to stop at 10WeekMA zigzag line. Will update chart around this time.

Looking at previous downtrends, we see that RSI normally goes to 30 before any price pause/small retracement.
We should expect a downtrend without pause until we hit RSI 30.
If we are not at support blue line or white line before we get to RSI 30, we should pause and continue downward.

I do not expect the market to tolerate this stall tactic from Trump. Article - Trump says it might be better to wait until after 2020 election for a China trade deal

Jeff Gundlach - “In 2018, GDP grew by 5% while national debt grew at 6%. This implies the entire economic growth of 2018 was debt based.” He goes on to say that the “problem that causes the next recession will be interest rate manipulation (going to zero interest rates/QE money printing)” 7mins15sec into video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPr7QbXS...

Let's not forget the taxpayer bank bailouts. Goldman Sacs ruined the housing market, got a $10billion taxpayer loan never to be payed back, outsourced 1000 jobs right after getting the money screwing American's further, and NOW Goldman Sacs is having one of the biggest stock buybacks EVER ....WITH OUR TAXPAYER DOLLARS!

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I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts.
Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC , BTCUSD , GDX , VIXY .
Short SPY and AAPL .
Al Brooks thinks today's bear trap and there will be a new ATH. What do you think?

"The Emini opened with a big gap down and sold off initially. It then rallied in a broad bull channel for the rest of the day. Today is now a buy signal bar for tomorrow for a 2 day bear trap. A gap up tomorrow will create an island bottom. Today’s gap down formed a 5 day island top.

The selloff was strong enough so that a trading range is more likely over the next week. But the bull trend on the daily and weekly charts are strong. Remember, I have been saying for the past month that the buy climax would probably result in a 50 – 100 point pullback that would begin by the end of November. Also, I said it would probably last only a week or two. The pullback began on November 27 and it has fallen about 85 points. It therefore has met my minimum objective.

The selloff is strong enough so that the bulls will probably need at least a micro double bottom. That means traders should expect at least a small 2nd leg sideways to down within a week.

But the 2 month rally was strong. Therefore, this 2 day selloff might be a bear trap and the end of the selling. That increases the chance of a strong reversal back up this week."
jbird7839 mappycarol
@mappycarol, I read the pattern and make my own determination. Not follow others.
I think Al is wrong. We have a bear flag on lower time frames. Al probably has several thousand shares or something, who knows.
We are in no mans land with gaps below. Relax and enjoy the show. I expect we go down into Xmas, as I have said before.
mappycarol jbird7839
@jbird7839, I believe your reading on the chart. I hope this Friday is a big red bar to close the week. Then we have nothing to worry about.
jbird7839 mappycarol
@mappycarol, I know it is hard to read through all the fear in the media out there. But most of the time, if you do opposite then you are better off.
Week ago CNBC was pumping to buy ATH's. Now they are saying buy the dip. I think they are getting to unload shares for dollars more.
If you have millions of shares, another .50 cents can be $500k.
But then again I am a very risk tolerant person. Each person has to asses their own circumstance.
If you do get worried, I recommend 2 things:
1-Write your exits down - Example - "SPY Sell to Close 2 Contracts at $8.25 or greater" Then you can estimate your exit if price goes against you, guestimate.
2-Set stop loss if you don't set your exits daily.
Hope this helps. I think SPY has till Friday at least probably to go down before any pause. But I will watch as we go and report :)
+1 Reply
mappycarol jbird7839
@jbird7839, Thank you for the great tips! Just do the opposite :)
jbird7839 mappycarol
@mappycarol, Exactly. Just double check chart before making any decisions. At least recently this has been working really well. lol
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