S&P500 Index. TimeFrame = 4H. Judging by the available material, a large Wedge is being formed, which began in September 2020. Now we are in the last, 5th wave, both locally and globally. At the moment, a reverse H&S is being formed (by Friday, the right shoulder will be formed on a small correction), after which the target of this local pattern will be the target at 4800, after which the index usually forms a bull trap, going above the limits of the Wedge pattern, followed by the execution of Wedge with targets , indicated on the chart, with the characteristic price movement according to the red arrows. The expected drop is up to 13%, which cannot be called a simple correction, it is a fall. Many papers will fold decently.
The timing of such a movement - a downward reversal will occur by the end of the year, after the quarterly December expiration and will last until the next quarterly March expiration. The Wedge pattern on such TFs is considered strong and tends to be fully executed. Since March 2020, many smaller wedges have been broken or partially filled, but this is a completely different case. I can be wrong with the timing of events - this is the most difficult to do. Perhaps this fall will happen a little later.
On the expected upward movement, unload all trading positions in long and gain positions in short, if you know how to short correctly. If you have investment positions, you do not need to do anything, wait for the bottom and get positions long, since the Wedge pattern is considered an entry pattern, after which the uptrend usually resumes.
Remember that this is just a forecast and may be broken.
The timing of such a movement - a downward reversal will occur by the end of the year, after the quarterly December expiration and will last until the next quarterly March expiration. The Wedge pattern on such TFs is considered strong and tends to be fully executed. Since March 2020, many smaller wedges have been broken or partially filled, but this is a completely different case. I can be wrong with the timing of events - this is the most difficult to do. Perhaps this fall will happen a little later.
On the expected upward movement, unload all trading positions in long and gain positions in short, if you know how to short correctly. If you have investment positions, you do not need to do anything, wait for the bottom and get positions long, since the Wedge pattern is considered an entry pattern, after which the uptrend usually resumes.
Remember that this is just a forecast and may be broken.
Trade closed: target reached