S&P500 Short Term Outlook and Long Term Thoughts

OANDA:SPX500USD   S&P 500 Index
Short term, I believe we are in the last leg of a correction that will top out at around $2970 (D point of XABCD pattern, or point C of the ABC pattern) before continuing the bear move towards the $2200 region in the near long term. While a drop to $2200 seems large and can be attributed to the ongoing Trade War, I believe there will be one more leg up from that point to around $3200-$3300 (or higher due to Euphoria); a bull move which could be triggered by Trump successfully reaching a deal with China and ending the Trade War. This would also help his case to secure a second term. This would also complete the Ending Diagonal pattern we've been in since the end of January 2018. It is from this peak I believe the real recession move down will start, perhaps mid to late next year, which would make sense since the 10YR and 2YR Treasury Bond yield curves just inverted, which has historically indicated a bear market can follow within 1-2 years. As TOOL would say, I know the pieces fit!

So basically, short term Buy up to $2970, then long term Sell to around $2200, at which point I'll be looking for Buys up to at least $3200, possibly higher. From that point, I'll be shorting the market during the coming recession, perhaps depression.
Sep 04
Comment: Entering my target zone :)
Sep 05
Pivot coming soon. Looking to take Sells anywhere from $2990. Can even start taking sells now if you want to get in on the longer term play.
Entering my target zone :)
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