$SPXL - Bulls Still In Charge; Eye 106.93 near 01 AUG 2016


1 - Per Predictive/Forecasting Model, underlying force continue to favor bulls
2 - Support near the 77.61 handle offers a probable rebound level
3 - Forecasting Model eyes 01 AUG 2016 vicinity as probable timing in rally
4 - Invalidation: Break of 68.99


David Alcindor, CMT             Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
David Alcindor
Alias: 4xForecaster

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Now that your target had been met , is the bull run over?
4xForecaster AmitKumareb
Hello, @AmitKumareb - The run is not done, at least not the secular bull run. However, a significant retracement is afoot. I post $SPX chart in my service if interest in following. Check out #CROWSignalService on Twitter for recent performances.

Thank you,

David Alcindor
CMT Affiliate #227974
Is this violated?
+1 Reply
Hello @2use:

Item #4:

"4 - Invalidation: Break of 68.99 "

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
2use 4xForecaster
Not sure if i understand that it should be in line with the IWM forecast that is bearish all the way to 2018?
+1 Reply
@2use: ... Cut/paste from above ... There is nothing "in-line" about these two. Instead, there are foretelling correlations that allow the trader/investor to "foresee" a probable turn in the heavier capitalized index, compared to the lesser one - Russell-2000 represents the latter, SP-500 the latter - See the quote of the secon article, and the content of both articles to answer your important question.

There's A Rotation Underway Out Of Small-Cap Stocks That Could Be Bad News For Everyone
(Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/djia-russell-2000-ratio-versus-sp-500-2013-4 )

Here is an article that refers to this leading indication of smaller caps versus larger ones - And a quote from therein:

Why Small Caps Are Better Than Large Caps
- "To some investors, the underperformance of small caps in the last few weeks is a canary in the coal mine for blue chips and the market in general."
(Source: http://investorplace.com/2011/01/small-caps-beat-large-cap-stocks/#.V29nv6LGDmo )


David Alcindor

+1 Reply
2use 4xForecaster
Thanx, now i see how you viewed the two. I do agree that in the riskier markets, small caps will suffer although not sure if that will happen that fast, and if it will, how high can the SP500 go with that. But then, the general trend you see is up for the markets in general? in other words, you are bullish given one is out of small-caps?
+1 Reply
@2use - I don't see a general trend. I look at the particular predictive analysis and forecast for each market (here, we are talking indices) on their own - The Predictive/Forecasting Model is not aware, nor is it implying any correlation between indices, and the data is chews upon is not considerate of any implied correlation either.

The correlation I addressed earlier is simply one that is recognized, where the smaller companies (which are not necessarily the riskiest) tend to fold first - I presumed based on the fact that they are in fact less risk-tolerant, since their capitalization implies that they sit on less cash to support staffing and other costs to maintain business. In contrast, the large companies might in fact be riskier, since they have more risk tolerance, and thus are likely to be more obstinate in the face of a market downturn, in which they would tend to fold at a later date, once the losses are posted and the investors are informed much later, than would happen in smaller companies that decide to fold and announce shortfalls sooner - Plus, as mentioned before, there is a perceived ego, being a Russell-2000 vs a SP500 vs a top-30 blue chip company.

In any case, the charts I post only formulate a predictive analysis (i.e.: current trend, strength and extent of price) and forecast (target, either a quantitative as in the TG-1, TG-2, ... TG-n, which implies a temporary retracement, as opposed to a qualitative target, which implies a significant headwind, and high-probability reversal, as in the TG-Hi and TGHix). They do NOT reflect my "opinion" or perception of the market - They are simply the product of a composite analysis of indicators, geometries, non of which involves price.

As a shameless plug, this is in fact what I teach: A proprietary method that allows the advanced trader to look at a set of conditions that occur outside of the price field. Most of my most successful students end up never setting eye on price at all, and yet can define the trend, strength and extent the market, and look at price only so that they can assign a specific dollar value to the forecast - This is the CROW Code, which sands for Constant Rescaling Of Waves, which integrates fractal geometries, redundant proprietary patterns and basic Fibonacci coefficients - The product is never shown, and the charts do not contain any of this internal information, since nothing happens in the price field.

It takes one lesson to get it, and I coach, teach, tutor and provide amples signals in all and any requested markets for a year and beyond - My course is full for the month, as I take only 1-3 students per month, but if interested in finding out more, feel free to request information at admin@KADAInstitute.com..

I apologize for this self-promoting insert, but I am very passionate about a field which I am not aware is taught anywhere else - I mean predictive analysis and forecasting of the financial markets, that is.

Thank you for your initial query and for letting me digress a bit.



+1 Reply
2use 4xForecaster
Thanx for the explanation and i i can only add that i see now how this is in line with the other chart you posted

+1 Reply
You can't chart a 3x leverage etf for more than short term swings. It has decay. You always chart the underlying. Flawed chart.
+2 Reply
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