4xForecaster
Long

$SPXL - Bulls Still In Charge; Eye 106.93 near 01 AUG 2016

AMEX:SPXL   DIREXION DAILY S&P 500 BULL 3X SHARES
SYNOPSIS:

snapshot


1 - Per Predictive/Forecasting Model, underlying force continue to favor bulls
2 - Support near the 77.61 handle offers a probable rebound level
3 - Forecasting Model eyes 01 AUG 2016 vicinity as probable timing in rally
4 - Invalidation: Break of 68.99

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
Nando PRO
5 months ago
Little confusing, you are bullish SP500 after some more donwside but ultra bearish on Rusell 2000?
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Nando
5 months ago
Hello @Nando - Two points:

1 - The predictive analysis and forecasting is expressed from a model that leaves me no discretion in terms of interpretation - I simply post what it tells me to post. This is a quantitative system that speaks, and I do the typing

2 - historically, the more junior companies which are typically listed on the Russell 2000 will provide early signals of total market direction. In my own observation, and perhaps in that of other traders keeping an eye on broad-based indices, Russell 2000 will move counter SP-500, and counter US-30 ("Blue Chips"), in such a manner that SP-500 will then move in the direction of the Russell 2000, and finallt, the Dow (US30) will move in the direction of the SP-500 - This has a lot to do with market capitalization of the underlying companies, whereby the smaller remain swifter in directional moves compared to the larger ones which remain proportionately laggards.

Is this making sense?

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
5 months ago
@Nando - Here are two easily found and interesting articles on the topics of divergence between smaller and larger cap indices, and how relative price action is interpreted in terms of risks aversion and position rotation:

There's A Rotation Underway Out Of Small-Cap Stocks That Could Be Bad News For Everyone
(Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/djia-russell-2000-ratio-versus-sp-500-2013-4 )


Here is an article that refers to this leading indication of smaller caps versus larger ones - And a quote from therein:

Why Small Caps Are Better Than Large Caps
- "To some investors, the underperformance of small caps in the last few weeks is a canary in the coal mine for blue chips and the market in general."
(Source: http://investorplace.com/2011/01/small-caps-beat-large-cap-stocks/#.V29nv6LGDmo )



Best,

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Sunny88 4xForecaster
5 months ago
If so, can we long spy and short iwm at the same time for a short period?
Reply
Nando PRO 4xForecaster
5 months ago
Thank you for your reponse, yes
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Nando
5 months ago
The way I look at it is that smaller cap companies are swifter to respond to deleterious market conditions, having to lay off sooner since they do not carry the cash/assets to weather adverse market conditions which the larger cap companies are capable of withstanding. Plus, there is ego: The smaller cap do not have the same luster that larger caps are carrying, so they are more likely to "fold" than the more complex, heavier playing companies who perceive themselves have bellweather of the entire market in the industry and often countries they might represent.

In any case, I do not use these indices other than foretellers - For instance, a decline in the Russell 2000 may foretell something of an upcoming resistance in SP500, which in turns is likely to tell me something about the behavior o the $USD vs. $JPY pair, since the two are more often correlated than other Forex pairs.

So, the rational here is to have some light degree of insight into intermarket correlations, and see whether the bar brawling in one corner of the street can carry over to my neighborhood.

Best,

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
PKA
5 months ago
You can't chart a 3x leverage etf for more than short term swings. It has decay. You always chart the underlying. Flawed chart.
+2 Reply
2use
5 months ago
Is this violated?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 2use
5 months ago
Hello @2use:

Item #4:

"4 - Invalidation: Break of 68.99 "

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
2use 4xForecaster
5 months ago
Not sure if i understand that it should be in line with the IWM forecast that is bearish all the way to 2018?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 2use
5 months ago
@2use: ... Cut/paste from above ... There is nothing "in-line" about these two. Instead, there are foretelling correlations that allow the trader/investor to "foresee" a probable turn in the heavier capitalized index, compared to the lesser one - Russell-2000 represents the latter, SP-500 the latter - See the quote of the secon article, and the content of both articles to answer your important question.

--------------------------
There's A Rotation Underway Out Of Small-Cap Stocks That Could Be Bad News For Everyone
(Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/djia-russell-2000-ratio-versus-sp-500-2013-4 )


Here is an article that refers to this leading indication of smaller caps versus larger ones - And a quote from therein:

Why Small Caps Are Better Than Large Caps
- "To some investors, the underperformance of small caps in the last few weeks is a canary in the coal mine for blue chips and the market in general."
(Source: http://investorplace.com/2011/01/small-caps-beat-large-cap-stocks/#.V29nv6LGDmo )



Best,

David Alcindor
-----------------------

David
+1 Reply
2use 4xForecaster
5 months ago
Thanx, now i see how you viewed the two. I do agree that in the riskier markets, small caps will suffer although not sure if that will happen that fast, and if it will, how high can the SP500 go with that. But then, the general trend you see is up for the markets in general? in other words, you are bullish given one is out of small-caps?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 2use
5 months ago
@2use - I don't see a general trend. I look at the particular predictive analysis and forecast for each market (here, we are talking indices) on their own - The Predictive/Forecasting Model is not aware, nor is it implying any correlation between indices, and the data is chews upon is not considerate of any implied correlation either.

The correlation I addressed earlier is simply one that is recognized, where the smaller companies (which are not necessarily the riskiest) tend to fold first - I presumed based on the fact that they are in fact less risk-tolerant, since their capitalization implies that they sit on less cash to support staffing and other costs to maintain business. In contrast, the large companies might in fact be riskier, since they have more risk tolerance, and thus are likely to be more obstinate in the face of a market downturn, in which they would tend to fold at a later date, once the losses are posted and the investors are informed much later, than would happen in smaller companies that decide to fold and announce shortfalls sooner - Plus, as mentioned before, there is a perceived ego, being a Russell-2000 vs a SP500 vs a top-30 blue chip company.

In any case, the charts I post only formulate a predictive analysis (i.e.: current trend, strength and extent of price) and forecast (target, either a quantitative as in the TG-1, TG-2, ... TG-n, which implies a temporary retracement, as opposed to a qualitative target, which implies a significant headwind, and high-probability reversal, as in the TG-Hi and TGHix). They do NOT reflect my "opinion" or perception of the market - They are simply the product of a composite analysis of indicators, geometries, non of which involves price.

As a shameless plug, this is in fact what I teach: A proprietary method that allows the advanced trader to look at a set of conditions that occur outside of the price field. Most of my most successful students end up never setting eye on price at all, and yet can define the trend, strength and extent the market, and look at price only so that they can assign a specific dollar value to the forecast - This is the CROW Code, which sands for Constant Rescaling Of Waves, which integrates fractal geometries, redundant proprietary patterns and basic Fibonacci coefficients - The product is never shown, and the charts do not contain any of this internal information, since nothing happens in the price field.

It takes one lesson to get it, and I coach, teach, tutor and provide amples signals in all and any requested markets for a year and beyond - My course is full for the month, as I take only 1-3 students per month, but if interested in finding out more, feel free to request information at admin@KADAInstitute.com.

I apologize for this self-promoting insert, but I am very passionate about a field which I am not aware is taught anywhere else - I mean predictive analysis and forecasting of the financial markets, that is.

Thank you for your initial query and for letting me digress a bit.

Best,

David


+1 Reply
2use 4xForecaster
5 months ago
Thanx for the explanation and i i can only add that i see now how this is in line with the other chart you posted
$NASX - Interim Correction; Bulls Eye 5859.51 | #nasdaq $NQ

+1 Reply
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