Now that I am not spending nearly as much time on the BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE it looks like I will have more time to post analysis of the traditional markets and alt coins. All of the higher time frames are showing confluence on the S&P 500 and that should provide us with a high probability entry.
Yesterday’s analysis: Pulled buy order, primarily due to daily TD Sequential and recognizing much better areas to enter.
Patterns: 12h c&h. Pitchfork.
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $2,803 S: $2,790
EMA’s (12 & 26): Recent bullish cross on daily. 3d: starting to diverge. Bullish 1m-1w.
MA crossovers: bullish 1m-1w
FIB’s: 0.786 at $2,692 and 1 at $2,883
Candlestick analysis: daily hanging man + TD 8. 3d marubozu + green 3 just took out shooting star. Weekly marubozu + green 1.
Ichimoku Cloud: recent h&s looking pattern got support from 3d cloud and TK made a bullish crossover in that area. Daily has been support and has a recent bullish kumo twist.
TD Sequential: 1m: Green 2 above a green 1 1w: Green 1 3d: green 3 1d: Green 8
50 & 200 MA’s (calculate % difference): 50: +1.89% 200: +3.81%
Bollinger Bands: 1d and 3d are piercing through top band. 1w and 1m are nearing top band.
Trendline: Pitchfork drawn
Daily Trend: bullish since 7/11
Fractals: Just broke weekly up fractal. Down is $2,675.
Conclusion: TD Sequential and horizontal resistance are most important indicators for me right now. Waiting for 1-4 candle correction on daily and/or green 2 on weekly to line up with green 2 on the monthly.
Yesterday’s analysis: Pulled buy order, primarily due to daily TD Sequential and recognizing much better areas to enter.
Patterns: 12h c&h. Pitchfork.
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $2,803 S: $2,790
EMA’s (12 & 26): Recent bullish cross on daily. 3d: starting to diverge. Bullish 1m-1w.
MA crossovers: bullish 1m-1w
FIB’s: 0.786 at $2,692 and 1 at $2,883
Candlestick analysis: daily hanging man + TD 8. 3d marubozu + green 3 just took out shooting star. Weekly marubozu + green 1.
Ichimoku Cloud: recent h&s looking pattern got support from 3d cloud and TK made a bullish crossover in that area. Daily has been support and has a recent bullish kumo twist.
TD Sequential: 1m: Green 2 above a green 1 1w: Green 1 3d: green 3 1d: Green 8
50 & 200 MA’s (calculate % difference): 50: +1.89% 200: +3.81%
Bollinger Bands: 1d and 3d are piercing through top band. 1w and 1m are nearing top band.
Trendline: Pitchfork drawn
Daily Trend: bullish since 7/11
Fractals: Just broke weekly up fractal. Down is $2,675.
Conclusion: TD Sequential and horizontal resistance are most important indicators for me right now. Waiting for 1-4 candle correction on daily and/or green 2 on weekly to line up with green 2 on the monthly.
Comment:
Prior analysis/position: Long from $2,807.06 and $2,811.30. Feeling very good about position despite hanging man on the daily. Did not think we would pullback today but I am not worried yet.
Patterns: Higher highs and higher lows forming trend/pitchfork
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $2,815 S: $2,800 and $2,790
9 & 21 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 9: +3.57% 21: +10.80% with bullish crossover
50 & 200 MA’s: 50: +1.88% 200: +3.92%
FIB’s: 0.786 = $2,549 1 = $2,877
Candlestick analysis: Bearish engulfing after hanging man. Fractal will print if we close below $2,816
Ichimoku Cloud: Tenkan and 50 MA are on top of each other with Kijun approaching the same level. Could be a high probability long entry.
TD Sequential: Red 1 following green 3 on daily. Green 2 on weekly. Green 2 on monthly
Bollinger Bands: Pulling back from top band. MA at $2,763 on daily. MA at $2,719 on weekly.
Trendline: Pitchfork has been drawn. Currently testing the MA after pulling back from 0.5 (green)
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: DOWN = $2,695 UP = Expected to print at $2,817
Conclusion: Do not like that we are forming an up fractal at the local high. However the overall market is much too bullish to get worried just yet. Hoping for MA on the pitchfork to hold. Stop loss is set at $2,689 which is just below the most recent down fractal on the daily.
Patterns: Higher highs and higher lows forming trend/pitchfork
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $2,815 S: $2,800 and $2,790
9 & 21 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 9: +3.57% 21: +10.80% with bullish crossover
50 & 200 MA’s: 50: +1.88% 200: +3.92%
FIB’s: 0.786 = $2,549 1 = $2,877
Candlestick analysis: Bearish engulfing after hanging man. Fractal will print if we close below $2,816
Ichimoku Cloud: Tenkan and 50 MA are on top of each other with Kijun approaching the same level. Could be a high probability long entry.
TD Sequential: Red 1 following green 3 on daily. Green 2 on weekly. Green 2 on monthly
Bollinger Bands: Pulling back from top band. MA at $2,763 on daily. MA at $2,719 on weekly.
Trendline: Pitchfork has been drawn. Currently testing the MA after pulling back from 0.5 (green)
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: DOWN = $2,695 UP = Expected to print at $2,817
Conclusion: Do not like that we are forming an up fractal at the local high. However the overall market is much too bullish to get worried just yet. Hoping for MA on the pitchfork to hold. Stop loss is set at $2,689 which is just below the most recent down fractal on the daily.
Comment:
Here is the pitchfork mentioned above
Comment:
Previous analysis/position: Worried about up fractal at local high. Long from $2,807.06 and $2,811.30.
Patterns: High high and higher lows are forming a trend/pitchfork.
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $2,817 S: $2,800
9 & 21 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 9: -0.08% 21: +7.55% Recent bearish cross on 1h
50 & 200 MA’s: 50: +1.56% 200: +3.62% 50 could be a good area of support for this draw down.
FIB’s: 0.786 = $2,539 1 = $2,875
Candlestick analysis: Pull back off hanging man. Wicked of $2,800 support Bearish spinning to on the weekly.
Ichimoku Cloud: Daily is fully bullish, Tenkan and kijun are very close to 50MA.
TD’ Sequential: Green 5. Next candle needs to close > $2,813.4 to continue setup. Green 2 didn’t stay above a green 1 on the weekly for very long.
Visible Range: Last resistance should be $2,820. Showing very good support above my stop.
Bollinger Bands: MA = $2,768 on daily. MA on weekly will be apart of support cluster with MA/Tenkan/Kijun/Trendline
Trendline: Connect 4/2 and 4/30
Daily Trend: bearish for two days
Fractals: UP just printed at $2,816 3 DOWN fractals at $2,691
On Balance Volume: Shows a serious bearish divergence (why is nobody talking about this). Indicates smart money getting out since 6/16/14. Steady downtrend since 1/22/18 on weekly.
Chaikin Money Flow: h&s on monthly. Found support above 0 on weekly. Found support above 0 but significant lower high. Will it W or create a lower low?
Conclusion: The divergence in the OBV is alarming and is a very strong indication that this rally is not sustainable for much longer. Support cluster from MA/Tenkan/Kijun/Trendline/Bollinger band at/around $2,755 will be key. Stop remains at $2,689 for now and I will consider moving it up if we do not support above that cluster.
Patterns: High high and higher lows are forming a trend/pitchfork.
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $2,817 S: $2,800
9 & 21 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 9: -0.08% 21: +7.55% Recent bearish cross on 1h
50 & 200 MA’s: 50: +1.56% 200: +3.62% 50 could be a good area of support for this draw down.
FIB’s: 0.786 = $2,539 1 = $2,875
Candlestick analysis: Pull back off hanging man. Wicked of $2,800 support Bearish spinning to on the weekly.
Ichimoku Cloud: Daily is fully bullish, Tenkan and kijun are very close to 50MA.
TD’ Sequential: Green 5. Next candle needs to close > $2,813.4 to continue setup. Green 2 didn’t stay above a green 1 on the weekly for very long.
Visible Range: Last resistance should be $2,820. Showing very good support above my stop.
Bollinger Bands: MA = $2,768 on daily. MA on weekly will be apart of support cluster with MA/Tenkan/Kijun/Trendline
Trendline: Connect 4/2 and 4/30
Daily Trend: bearish for two days
Fractals: UP just printed at $2,816 3 DOWN fractals at $2,691
On Balance Volume: Shows a serious bearish divergence (why is nobody talking about this). Indicates smart money getting out since 6/16/14. Steady downtrend since 1/22/18 on weekly.
Chaikin Money Flow: h&s on monthly. Found support above 0 on weekly. Found support above 0 but significant lower high. Will it W or create a lower low?
Conclusion: The divergence in the OBV is alarming and is a very strong indication that this rally is not sustainable for much longer. Support cluster from MA/Tenkan/Kijun/Trendline/Bollinger band at/around $2,755 will be key. Stop remains at $2,689 for now and I will consider moving it up if we do not support above that cluster.
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Patterns: Higher highs and higher lows starting to form a trend
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $2,810 S: $2,806
9 & 21 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 9: +0.78% 21: +1.48%
MA crossovers: 50 & 200 are fully bullish and starting to diverge again.
FIB’s: 1: $2,974 0.786: $2,549
Candlestick analysis: bullish engulfing on daily. Bullish marubozu on the monthly
Ichimoku Cloud: Fully bullish
TD Sequential: 1 candle pullback after green 9. Green 2 above a green 1 on the weekly. Green 2 above a green 1 on the monthly.
50 & 200 MA’s (calculate % difference): 50: +2.14% 200: +4.22%
Bollinger Bands: Starting to hug top band on daily and weekly. Approaching top band on monthly.
Trendline: Connect 2/9/16 to 2/6/18 (blue line) | Angling upward more sharply than it has over the last decade. Is it starting it’s next leg of the parabolic move?
Daily Trend: Bullish since 7/4
Fractals: 5 up fractals broken on most recent move. Down fractals at $2,696
Conclusion: Starting to look like we are getting ready to make another parabolic move. TD Sequential on the monthly shows at least 7 more months to the upside and is currently providing an entry along with the weekly green 2. Time to get fully position (before the end of this week). Stop loss is set at $2,689.