Morning Notes: 04/29/19 Trading Environment-Short Term: Current Environment-Neutral/Bearish
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Hi Everyone,
Futures are flat and not a lot went on in overnight trading. The pattern does have another small bull flag look, suggesting we could have yet another pop higher within a larger ending dialog wedge. The wave structure is very mature, meaning a turn down anywhere up here would fit the profile. But something I have been saying for quite some time, the bulls will not leave the party until they are forced out. But when forced out, they are all looking at the same exit and why we continue to see these all in all out moves. The "Kill Zone" still has some time to bake, but that doesn't mean we can't get a quick nail biter to the downside that gets bid back up into the "Kill Zone?" time period. But let's cross that bridge when we get there. For now, the bulls remain in control and the first sign we could get some type of backing and filling, would be a break below 2929 for the spx.
There are bearish divergences on all time frames, but they have pretty much been ignored besides a couple 50-100 point moves lower that were bid back up as fast as they fell. As I mentioned above, a break of 2929 is the first sign of weakness, but confirmation would need to see 2915 taken out, which is the new short term bull/bear line. Below that, we should get a reaction trade down to the 2903/2892 support zone.
I would normally say that is where bulls will be waiting with high odds, but as I said before, every bull is looking at the same exit door, so a minor pullback could quickly turn into a nail biter that heads lower than many are expecting. I am not saying that is going to take place, just how these market moods change so fast-when nothing has really changed. Sometimes when we get these non-stop moves higher, even the bulls become a bit jittery, as everyone knows we won't go straight up. When we are in this type of extended move higher, sometimes just the littlest thing can have everyone running for the exits. A break of the moving averages, (where every dip has found buyers), would have some thinking it's time to take profits. So far, every test of the 50 day moving average the hourly chart, has marked the low. Can you see how a break of that line could cause a mad rush for the exits, even though nothing may have changed? Sometimes it is just a psychological break that causes panic selling. I still am on the side of shorting any strength up to the 2950 level, which is the top of the wedge.
The range SPX range for today is 2940 high and 2936 low. A break of 2940 the spx should try for 2945/2950. A push below 2936 we could see 2929/2918. G
SPX CASH 60 Minute Technicals
Stochastics: Overbought
Divergences- Bearish Divergences
Resistance Levels: R1-2940 R2-2945 R3 2950
Support Levels: S1-2936 S2-2929 S3 2918
Trending Pivots: Higher
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1.) like our post with a thumbs up (each post)
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Hi Everyone,
Futures are flat and not a lot went on in overnight trading. The pattern does have another small bull flag look, suggesting we could have yet another pop higher within a larger ending dialog wedge. The wave structure is very mature, meaning a turn down anywhere up here would fit the profile. But something I have been saying for quite some time, the bulls will not leave the party until they are forced out. But when forced out, they are all looking at the same exit and why we continue to see these all in all out moves. The "Kill Zone" still has some time to bake, but that doesn't mean we can't get a quick nail biter to the downside that gets bid back up into the "Kill Zone?" time period. But let's cross that bridge when we get there. For now, the bulls remain in control and the first sign we could get some type of backing and filling, would be a break below 2929 for the spx.
There are bearish divergences on all time frames, but they have pretty much been ignored besides a couple 50-100 point moves lower that were bid back up as fast as they fell. As I mentioned above, a break of 2929 is the first sign of weakness, but confirmation would need to see 2915 taken out, which is the new short term bull/bear line. Below that, we should get a reaction trade down to the 2903/2892 support zone.
I would normally say that is where bulls will be waiting with high odds, but as I said before, every bull is looking at the same exit door, so a minor pullback could quickly turn into a nail biter that heads lower than many are expecting. I am not saying that is going to take place, just how these market moods change so fast-when nothing has really changed. Sometimes when we get these non-stop moves higher, even the bulls become a bit jittery, as everyone knows we won't go straight up. When we are in this type of extended move higher, sometimes just the littlest thing can have everyone running for the exits. A break of the moving averages, (where every dip has found buyers), would have some thinking it's time to take profits. So far, every test of the 50 day moving average the hourly chart, has marked the low. Can you see how a break of that line could cause a mad rush for the exits, even though nothing may have changed? Sometimes it is just a psychological break that causes panic selling. I still am on the side of shorting any strength up to the 2950 level, which is the top of the wedge.
The range SPX range for today is 2940 high and 2936 low. A break of 2940 the spx should try for 2945/2950. A push below 2936 we could see 2929/2918. G
SPX CASH 60 Minute Technicals
Stochastics: Overbought
Divergences- Bearish Divergences
Resistance Levels: R1-2940 R2-2945 R3 2950
Support Levels: S1-2936 S2-2929 S3 2918
Trending Pivots: Higher
