SP weekly preview and another look at the bigger picture
All in the video, I talk about this week and FOMC coming, and also the possibilities into 2024-2025. I do think tech will sell off more strongly than the SPX for the next few months.
Comment:
Good morning, the Market creeps up overnight, the top of wedge is around 4340-4350 depending on the timing
Comment:
the red line indicate the support I'm watching. If it breaks then it will likely become strong resistance on any kickbacks.
Comment:
an alternate view of the upper trendline is this. I don't like it as much, but if we breach 4300 impulsively, the move up may be finished, we'll see. FOMC still a wild card.
Comment:
this smaller time frame trendline has been broken, a retest of it is an objective short, but it may not work for anything other than a smaller pullback.
Comment:
they are trying to hold on to the line. If there is a sell off I think it will be brief - rsi on small time frames already quite low.
Comment:
false breakdown and now shorts getting squeezed. SPY has breached the high back in last august, so bulls should be even more confident now.
Comment:
another bear divergence on the 4 hr time frame. Could still go higher to 4360 area.
Comment:
top of the rising wedge on futures.
Comment:
QQQ has filled the gap from april of 2022. Daily bear divergence now, but it could go a little higher.
Comment:
Good morning, hourly rsi looks like it wants to go higher, so I expect a spike up to the weekly BB at 4360 after CPI, then a sell off back into the wedge. If something else happens, I will update but I will be away from my desk most of the day.
Comment:
bonds may be breaking out here. Bonds have been totally ignored but ratio charts with SPY says they should get a surprise bid sometime soon. Not sure if this is it or not.
Comment:
on SPX futures, one more high on an overthrow would be ideal. RSI looks like it needs a little higher.
Comment:
throw over right into weekly BB area, I expect selling today, no guarantees though...
Comment:
Bonds false breakout, bearish - yields are going higher - bad for tech esp.
Comment:
ending diagonal looks complete to me.
Comment:
SPX needs to get under the rising wedge, as the algos keep buying it there. IF they are under it algos should flip to selling. I'll be back after 5pm, good luck!
Comment:
good morning, no sell off yesterday, they simply tested the wedge and went higher. We've reached the weekly BB target and we are at the extremes of the resistance zone. If they don't turn soon and get under 4300, i'll have to rethink the bear case. Right now I'm still thinking we will get the turn.
Comment:
closer look, if the count is correct....
Comment:
hourly rsi looks like it wants to go higher after FOMC at 2pm, watch for a large move fueled by whatever shorts are left.
Comment:
Comment:
Spy daily rsi at extremes, we should see at least a pullback from here.
Comment:
hourly rsi now sufficiently reset with more bear divergence. COming into FOMC I really have a hard time seeing this go much further, but they may push to the absolute extremes after the announcement. I'm looking for a quick sell off, and then a reversal to a higher high, then selling from there.
Comment:
sell off as i thought with fomc but hourly rsi is way oversold, I think it's a trap, but we'll see soon enough usually the market is not this easy....
Comment:
one more high tomorrow is likely, maybe at open we are above 4400 on spx
Comment:
good morning, the futures are selling off, but with important economic numbers at 830 we still have a chance at a higher high today. The 4hr rsi is already quite low as is the 2 hr, so I'm expecting at least a move up to try and get higher after the numbers. Will update if incorrect.
Comment:
this channel looks better, so if they rally, I will use this.
Comment:
from yesterday's rising wedge, they are finding support at it's top. I still think higher.
Comment:
looks good for top of the channel today or tomorrow, probably today.
Comment:
ok, so while i was away they did run it up a bit as the hourly rsi was too low and we were at structural support. My feeling is we'll go higher into tomorrow to around 4410 and then sell. If I'm wrong I will update in the morning.
Comment:
back from a small vacation, QQQ has broken support. It may pop up and backtest it but otherwise I think it will continue to 350. From there another bounce would create a larger head and shoulders. Tech so far showing more weakness than other sectors since Jun 16.
Comment:
