SPY SPX SP-500 Jan 18th turn forecast looks good!
Previous market turn forecast for Jan 18 2019 looks good so far. Market turned exactly on the date. Now with the Pesky Gap! completed, the C= 1.27 A looks completed. The +1 power level completed. The Harmonic butterfly pattern completed. The turn should and is working nicely.
So where do we go from here?
As the turn was forecasted, we are now in a down trend as shown in the chart.
But how far do we go?
Well, these "Old Fart " eyes see the green zone as the "Decision Maker". If we are in a new bull market "P5" as some call it, then we should expect a big 5 wave move up toward 3000+. The first big wave 1 of 5 could be a leading diagonal from the Dec 24 2018 lows. In fact the market does look like the start of a diagonal with the red labels shown. The ratios for a 3rd wave of the leading diagonal to terminate, hit the 123.6-127% area nicely as labeled in red. So an expected wave 4 (in the diagonal pattern) should terminate in the green "Decision Maker zone". That would forecast a choppy ABC down to wave 4 of the leading diagonal. Then up to finish wave 5 of the bigger wave 1 and complete the red Bat Pattern. hmmm... good math and good story to watch for! Let's see.
The other (and my preferred) is the pink trail. I have been looking for the completion and a capitulation sell off for the big wave "A" down. So far, since the Sept highs, I only see 3 waves down. That could be all of it as wave A as some are saying and we have just finished wave A of "B" up, (or was that was all of "B")....
I know confusing counts, right? Many ways to label this sucker, but the "Freaky 4th" helps me keep it straight in my old brain.
So I'm looking for a deeper and more pronounced down trend to go below the "decision maker" zone shown in green.
Also notice the major, major, crack and break, below the long term trend line supports from 2009-2016 lows. That looks like a simple OFP trade where we broke the reaction line from the Feb 2018 lows. Keep it simple. We have just finished a major "Bear Market" retracement last week, I think.
If the ""Old Fart" is correct we should begin to see this rally up from the Dec 24 lows begin to crumble. It should begin to put in 5 wave moves to the downside. I would really like to see a "panic" and a capitulation low breaking Dec 24 and even lower below the -2 power level below 229 in the next couple of months. That's where my money is (literally)
So for now, we could see a choppy abc (in red) to the red diagonal wave 4 target and then reverse back up to complete the Bat Pattern, but lets watch for more clues as we get closer to the decision maker zone.
Or 5 wave moves down starting a 12345 wave move down to finish the BIG "A"
Are you a Bull or a Bear? .... we'll soon find out what the market thinks, regardless of our opinions :)
So where do we go from here?
As the turn was forecasted, we are now in a down trend as shown in the chart.
But how far do we go?
Well, these "Old Fart " eyes see the green zone as the "Decision Maker". If we are in a new bull market "P5" as some call it, then we should expect a big 5 wave move up toward 3000+. The first big wave 1 of 5 could be a leading diagonal from the Dec 24 2018 lows. In fact the market does look like the start of a diagonal with the red labels shown. The ratios for a 3rd wave of the leading diagonal to terminate, hit the 123.6-127% area nicely as labeled in red. So an expected wave 4 (in the diagonal pattern) should terminate in the green "Decision Maker zone". That would forecast a choppy ABC down to wave 4 of the leading diagonal. Then up to finish wave 5 of the bigger wave 1 and complete the red Bat Pattern. hmmm... good math and good story to watch for! Let's see.
The other (and my preferred) is the pink trail. I have been looking for the completion and a capitulation sell off for the big wave "A" down. So far, since the Sept highs, I only see 3 waves down. That could be all of it as wave A as some are saying and we have just finished wave A of "B" up, (or was that was all of "B")....
I know confusing counts, right? Many ways to label this sucker, but the "Freaky 4th" helps me keep it straight in my old brain.
So I'm looking for a deeper and more pronounced down trend to go below the "decision maker" zone shown in green.
Also notice the major, major, crack and break, below the long term trend line supports from 2009-2016 lows. That looks like a simple OFP trade where we broke the reaction line from the Feb 2018 lows. Keep it simple. We have just finished a major "Bear Market" retracement last week, I think.
If the ""Old Fart" is correct we should begin to see this rally up from the Dec 24 lows begin to crumble. It should begin to put in 5 wave moves to the downside. I would really like to see a "panic" and a capitulation low breaking Dec 24 and even lower below the -2 power level below 229 in the next couple of months. That's where my money is (literally)
So for now, we could see a choppy abc (in red) to the red diagonal wave 4 target and then reverse back up to complete the Bat Pattern, but lets watch for more clues as we get closer to the decision maker zone.
Or 5 wave moves down starting a 12345 wave move down to finish the BIG "A"
Are you a Bull or a Bear? .... we'll soon find out what the market thinks, regardless of our opinions :)