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SPY Inverse H&S Bull Trap?

SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST (AMEX:SPY)  
imzeeshan  
AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
Trend Analysis Chart Patterns Technical Indicators SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Inverse Head and Shoulders heikin-ashi
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trendanalysis chartpattern indicator spy inverseheadandshoulders heikin-ashi
Rule #1 of Head & Shoulder pattern, entry should be only after the pattern has been established.

The SPDR trapped a lot of bulls in October. Is is getting ready to trap more or is the web too heavy?

Everyone is excited about the Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern that is forming and they are waiting for the SPY to climax above 280.

But all other indicators are speaking a different story.
  • Close < EMA20 < EMA50 < EMA100.
  • Close < EMA200. EMA200 has repeatedly failed to support the bulls.
    snapshot
  • On the DMI, +DI (green) is sinking indicating a bearish movement.
    snapshot
  • MACD is going to cross downwards onto the Signal line. Histogram continues to shrink and submerge. RSI continues to dip.
    snapshot
  • Heikin Ashi Candles indicate bearish trend
  • Awesome Oscillator indicating bearish trend
    snapshot

The only way the Inverse H&S pattern plays out as everyone expects it to is by SPY gaining 10$ with conviction in the next 3 days. Not cheating by gapping up, but by steady growth in volume and neutral/bullish candles on a Thursday and a Friday! Usually by end of week, the big guns sell off and party.

I'm expecting strict average bullish volume and price action by the end of this week for the Inverse H&S to succeed and a reversal/correction to conclude, else I will continue to short SPY.

What do you think?
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