dereckcoatney
Long

Strong Like Temporary Bull

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
Boy, the market is just not ready to sell off yet. The rising wedge that I have been tracking is just no longer a good classical chart pattern to use because the market just has no follow through selling at any time.

As an alternative, given today's bear stomp into the close on such high volume , I just have to assume that the market wants to challenge the February gap, if not even the all-time highs. We may have a channel that has developed, and I will not be surprised if we now endeavor to reach the top of the channel in a great hurry.

The two blue lines represent the perimeter of the February gap, and there is just no volume in there to support much selling, I would suppose. When we entered it before, there was some initial resistance, but now that we have entered it a second time, I will not be surprised to see us gravitate right through it, and in fact I think it's probable.

Given the many risks facing the economy and the extremely overvalued nature of equities, I do not believe we can stay at these lofty heights for very long. But, bears may now need to wait another week or even two before looking forward to a top, I now believe.

Comments

I'm bearish as well but it can run to 3314 which is 1.272 or 3413 the 1.618 which are extensions of the 4th wave. It is still in the 5th wave which should be about the same length of the first wave Had some success shorting intraday but got my ass handed to me Friday. Should have made some cash but was sure I would get a breakdown after the first hour. Back to the drawing board, had a great week trading till Friday. Too much confidence or maybe just being greedy got me my ass handed. Good luck trading all!
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Capitulation via TradingView idea
God bless
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@svansi1, Spoofing the algos. :) Nah, I do want to warn people that they may need to wait another week. That gap scares me. We entered it on such volume today, and I really do think we could shoot right through it now. I see no bearish structure for the moment. I don't like that.
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Wow, the market has even made you bullish now? Let's see what happens the next few weeks.
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dereckcoatney subhra987
@subhra987, Super short-term.
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Dougbneal dereckcoatney
@dereckcoatney, I'm not shorting too many index etfs. I'm focusing on stocks that Robinhooders are selling after big ramps and stocks with poor technicals and poor fundamentals. Here's my list of active shorts going in to the weekend: MGY, PLUG, QFIN, NIO, WFC, IWM, ACAD, DIA, XOP, INO, CTXS, BYND, HSBC, KSS, LYFT, SKYW.
)
The amount short is slightly larger than my defensive longs like Muni bond CEFs NAD, EVN, PKO, PDI, UTF, UTG, CTL,BCE, T, NLY, MO, ABBV, RFI, RQI, RNP, CONE, and a bunch of BKT and VCSH.

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tuongvy0501 Dougbneal
@Dougbneal, how do you think about NLY. I bought but sold because it didn’t move much
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Dougbneal tuongvy0501
@tuongvy0501, NLY is a big dividend payer. Old guys like me hold it for retirement income.
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tuongvy0501 Dougbneal
@Dougbneal, yah i bought it because of the dividend. Maybe i will wait another good entry again
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Dougbneal tuongvy0501
@tuongvy0501, remember, high dividends mean high risk.
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