timwest

SP500 - SPY - Daily - Rolling over might be too obvious here

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
1939 19 32
a year ago
Mysterious "Island Gap" bottoms in the S&P500             is a odd sign. It is a sign of overnight news driving major price moves.

What I want to see is if the market can hold onto the gains since all of these basing patterns. I will be watching for what happens after the same amount of time here in the base expires. I measured 28 bars over 39 days (see the bottom of the chart). If the price begins to roll over after that amount of time expires, then I would imagine that we are going to go BELOW those levels. Why? Well, I've seen a lot of stock market bottoms in my nearly 30 years career of using technical analysis in the markets and I don't recall seeing a bottom as unusual as this one, so I am suspect of it.

It looks like we could go a little higher to challenge the 203-204 area where there is very little volume traded, which is where there are a significant number of sellers, and see what happens there.

SO - I'm suggesting to Hold Off here at 200 and leave this "roll-over" signal alone and instead to sell at 203-204 with additional sales going back under previous day's lows. Also sell on range expansions down once we reach 203-204.
(SEE SHORT POSITION ENTRY ZONES ON CHART WITH STOPS)

We are just entering the Earnings Season and we can expect unusual movements as these companies provide guidance on how the quarter is progressing. The market has been without guidance for the past couple of weeks as many stocks are in their "QUIET PERIOD" leading up to their earnings reports.

Remember to use your "COUNTDOWN TIMER" in the quote box to show you how many days remain until the next earnings report on each DJIA             item.

Tim 8:50AM EST 10/14/2015



a year ago
Comment: Approaching sell zone ... a bit more upside to get there...
a year ago
Comment: ENTRY SHORT ON FIRST POSITION 11:15AM EST 10/20/2015
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timwest PRO
a year ago
Here is what I see happening.
snapshot
+3 Reply
2use timwest
a year ago
This would have been a better posting i think :) It deserves one
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timwest PRO 2use
a year ago
I will put that one out if we get up to that level to short.
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Excellent Tim, thanks.
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jangseohee
a year ago
sound like a inverted right shoulder... let's see ^+^
+3 Reply
could there be support @ 199.28?

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pipercolt mitchell.morris.96
a year ago
Holding for now. Good call
+1 Reply
B120626
a year ago
Today we saw SPY get up to 202.35. On the Volume Profile, this is a low volume cleave with no balance from the waterslide down from Aug 20th. But we have special situations here with earnings affecting how the market reacts. The NFLX miss was semi-troubling in the morning, but after noon the market just stepped higher into close. So it will be interesting to see if Friday turns into a range bound day because of Options Expiration, or if we get further movement upward. If we march higher next week, we have a nip at 205 and a large nip at 208+. It sure seems quite the opposite from how it felt a few days ago :)
+1 Reply
Reekardo B120626
a year ago
they wont let this market drop.... feds will prop it... they cannot do another QE - no way. so the alternative is to prop the market and prevent panic even tho the bond market is beggin for a collapse
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This should be a nice gap up and short situation today.
+1 Reply
Gap up, no fill yet.
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TomPip
a year ago
Nice chart. I'm also looking for a short entry with the gaps at 19x as possible targets. I'm considering the risk here for a long put position a market that stagnates and/or grinds higher till December from 204 to 210ish.
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Hey Tim, Still long, waiting to see if we can get a close above the 100, (better yet 200 AVG.) and use it as the line in the sand. Should be (or could be) interesting few days..............
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Excellent!
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Thanks for the great info and updates Tim!
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keshavreddi
a year ago
Thanks Tim, entered short
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Reekardo
a year ago
forcing every fund to stay long. forcing shorts to cover. not going to let this market do another 2008 crisis.
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Chief_Tardis
a year ago
Looks like we are in the Max resistance zone the red area ... will be interesting to see if we fall from here or go sideways for while to test true resistance. Nice chart !
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Reekardo Chief_Tardis
a year ago
do you know how many people blew up on thursday and friday? they are going to destroy every short until they have to go long with their last dollar and then flush the market down to new lows. it may take a few months, but they will do it.
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