Long to 417 area then look to re-short D leg to 394 area

there is a lot going on w/ the sp500... Long term Im bullish to 475 (not saying 475 happens this year) but lets focus on the short term the next 3 months. I'm anticipating a retrace back to 392 because of what the AD and Money flow has already shown me. Im a buyer of the dips back to 417 area, after we sold off from this area yesterday... This is a bear trap now for those that are still short, and that didnt take profits.

But lets focus on price action.. There is an Bearish ABCD pattern set up. The D leg of this pattern would cause a bearish 3rd Elliot wave down to B leg of the bearish cypher pattern near 394. I'll breakdown this forecast w/ a serious of charts.

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this is where I went short at 417+

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this is a serious concern

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if we fail to breakout of this channel again at 417-420, the likely scenario is 392... also there was massive contract reported yesterday by Fintell $2,713.96k block of put contracts on the spy etf w/ a strike of $392 expiring 80days out on July 21, 2023.. Premium spent was 2.08 sigmas above the mean, placing it in the 97.94 percentile of all recent large trades made in spy options.

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see how this abc wave structure sets up another bearish cypher pattern?

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I should also make this another public post... but folks be funny on Trading view...

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this is correlating well with this theory

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that C leg of the bullish cypher set up is a sell leg

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not only is it potential C leg sell off, but D leg sell off of the bearish cypher pattern and a 3rd Elliot Wave down. Im focusing on the 1hr chart. The real test is to see who wants to hold over the weekend.

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The AD is attempting to cross over the 18 ema bottom chart

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you can see the double bottom by the AD on the 1hr. Im look for resistances on the 30min chart

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long entry on the 30min chart.. however, focus on the long exits/resistances level. and run your ema/sma through them or count your fib levels

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if we get the 18/50 ema cross set up by the AD on the 30min chart, we push to 415 and i'll take profits

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chart w/ indicators on

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this is why I love the AD, this is the 15min chart of SPY... The AD has already crossed over the 50 day moving avg.. measuring the height and low.. its now looking to cross over the .236 fib level, and when it does it will spike even higher

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the 15min resistances level shows 413.46, but my focus is on the 30min chart

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413.40-413.50 is a resistance area... 415 is my intraday target still .. Power hour is going to tell a lot. if you're in profits. expect more volatility a lot folks will be looking to take profits..

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your call to hold or take profits... I may trim half, and sell the other half at 415 and call it a day

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4160 is close, 4176 likely target still.. I wont hold over the weekend

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taking half the profits off the table here, now we're up 2% on spy etf.. letting the rest ride to 415

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these are your levels. decide for yourself.. if you want to hold or take profits

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20min left. im taking profits regardless. 50% of position sold, looking to see if the 50 day moving avg crosses over the spike level (green arrow) looking for a push to 415 into close. monitoring for the possibility

Trade closed manually:

taking profits here, i'll look for my short set up over the next week or two... not a bad week, was some roughness at the beginning but we up nicely.. Not about being right or wrong just be profitable. And we're just that PROFITABLE

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theres a bull flag on the cup/handle on the futures

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thats inside the handle

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It hasn't broken out yet, Im only a buyer if it breakouts above 4150.. and even then the scalp probably wont be much.. because my max for this move is 4176... 4200 would be my preference . No position established after profits were taken last Friday. Probably be a monitoring day for me on the spy and spx500 unless I see something concrete

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be mindful of this resistances level

30min chart

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tempted to go short here, but im look for another rejection

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im only a buyer if the AD breakout above the resistances level

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bearish bat spotted

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that retrace sends spy back to 411.18 area at minimum

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1hr Accumulation/distribution for spy etf. I want to be wrong here, but dont believe I am.

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going to rule out any significant decline for the rest of the week, until I see 418.. futures chart alone shows me 4154-4160 and the AD showing me 418 on spy . this takes me back to the original ideal bullish cypher back to 418 w/ technicals start to breakdown and cause another short