SPY S&P500 ETF - Lack of Fear, Sell if Range Expansion

1209 8 15
The lack of fear on this decline is still a major warning flag. IF we see the market drop by greater than today's range, look for the market to accelerate down. I left the forecast on here from over a week ago. The correction has been less than I had forecast so far, since I had looked for a drop to the 200 day moving average followed by a large bounce, but that didn't happen.

My catalyst for a drop is two-fold; first, complacency during the decline and the start of the new quarter can often be a "get into cash" move as portfolio managers dump some of their window-dressing positions and then shop for bargains with their cash.

For now, we have a long weekend with no trading Friday, which means to me that the selling will start next week.

If I'm wrong, we can cover. If the market just sits here, that will set up an even lower projection as it means there are sellers sitting on top of the market here.

Time will tell.

Tim 4/2/2015 4:16PM EST 206.44 last SPY            
Subscribe to my indicator package KEY HIDDEN LEVELS $20/mo or a discount for a year and join in the trading room KEY HIDDEN LEVELS here at TradingView.com
What do you ALL think of bad job report on market...will it sink or go up from here? Looks like interest rate may not hike till Sep. Another fear is Greece.
timwest LetsBeMillionaire
Any other good news/bad news items you think are relevant?
It's a good time to be selling upside premium. It's been hard getting filled some days at mid. but I sold yesterday and glad I got filled right near the highs on the closing bell
+1 Reply
I hear you TW and agree with your idea. The market is ripe for a big drop but my thoughts are that there are other hands supporting these markets and blurring the true picture. 'They' are trying to manage the descent imho
+1 Reply
some one else pointed out that 200 MA when i did my gap chart for the SPY , guess that makes at least 3 of us watching it :-{)
{ is my mustache
+1 Reply
Hi Tim, just a question, so when you said if we goes sideway from here, it will set up an even lower projection means sellers are sitting on top of the market here. But wouldn't that mean a rally would be more fierce because there'd me more shorts getting scrambling to cover?
timwest Jakeccc
I think there are sellers sitting on top of the market, which means I think they are "longs" who are looking to sell. The short sellers are a different story. I think we have a much bigger "margin-long" situation than a "short-covering" situation, but in reality it is a fight between those two elements - the margin longs and the short sellers. Only time will tell.
bought UVXY today. I feel the same market has to go sideways or down. There isnt any major catalyst to bring this market up. If IRAN news will come, oil and other commodities will go down and it will bring down rest of the market.
+1 Reply
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
SV Svenska
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 简体中文
ZH 繁體中文
AR العربية
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Cryptocurrency Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing My Support Tickets Contact Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out