My catalyst for a drop is two-fold; first, complacency during the decline and the start of the new quarter can often be a "get into cash" move as portfolio managers dump some of their window-dressing positions and then shop for bargains with their cash.
For now, we have a long weekend with no trading Friday, which means to me that the selling will start next week.
If I'm wrong, we can cover. If the market just sits here, that will set up an even lower projection as it means there are sellers sitting on top of the market here.
Time will tell.
Tim 4/2/2015 4:16PM EST 206.44 last SPY