timwest
Short

SPY S&P500 ETF - Lack of Fear, Sell if Range Expansion

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
1200 8 15
The lack of fear on this decline is still a major warning flag. IF we see the market drop by greater than today's range, look for the market to accelerate down. I left the forecast on here from over a week ago. The correction has been less than I had forecast so far, since I had looked for a drop to the 200 day moving average followed by a large bounce, but that didn't happen.

My catalyst for a drop is two-fold; first, complacency during the decline and the start of the new quarter can often be a "get into cash" move as portfolio managers dump some of their window-dressing positions and then shop for bargains with their cash.

For now, we have a long weekend with no trading Friday, which means to me that the selling will start next week.

If I'm wrong, we can cover. If the market just sits here, that will set up an even lower projection as it means there are sellers sitting on top of the market here.

Time will tell.

Tim 4/2/2015 4:16PM EST 206.44 last SPY            
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JigneshRathod
2 years ago
bought UVXY today. I feel the same market has to go sideways or down. There isnt any major catalyst to bring this market up. If IRAN news will come, oil and other commodities will go down and it will bring down rest of the market.
+1 Reply
Jakeccc
2 years ago
Hi Tim, just a question, so when you said if we goes sideway from here, it will set up an even lower projection means sellers are sitting on top of the market here. But wouldn't that mean a rally would be more fierce because there'd me more shorts getting scrambling to cover?
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timwest PRO Jakeccc
2 years ago
I think there are sellers sitting on top of the market, which means I think they are "longs" who are looking to sell. The short sellers are a different story. I think we have a much bigger "margin-long" situation than a "short-covering" situation, but in reality it is a fight between those two elements - the margin longs and the short sellers. Only time will tell.
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G13Man
2 years ago
some one else pointed out that 200 MA when i did my gap chart for the SPY , guess that makes at least 3 of us watching it :-{)
{ is my mustache
+1 Reply
Olu
2 years ago
I hear you TW and agree with your idea. The market is ripe for a big drop but my thoughts are that there are other hands supporting these markets and blurring the true picture. 'They' are trying to manage the descent imho
+1 Reply
nathanielT
2 years ago
It's a good time to be selling upside premium. It's been hard getting filled some days at mid. but I sold yesterday and glad I got filled right near the highs on the closing bell
+1 Reply
JigneshRathod
2 years ago
What do you ALL think of bad job report on market...will it sink or go up from here? Looks like interest rate may not hike till Sep. Another fear is Greece.
Reply
timwest PRO JigneshRathod
2 years ago
Any other good news/bad news items you think are relevant?
Reply
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