Note the exceptionally low level of VIXY , which indicates market players are not looking for a volatile move down from here, when this looks to me to be the time when it is HIGHLY probable.
Look for the 200 day moving average to provide some support and a decent bounce, but then it will very likely give way and lead to an accelerated decline that clears out many longs (margin longs). It looks like speculation needs to be wrung out of the market, but time will tell.
Tim 4:13PM EST 206.43 SPY March 31, 2015
If nothing else, lower high in recent months implies rangebound until we can get to the upside of the range, or worse, as you suggest.
Still intrigued by IWM. My thesis for end of 2014/FY2015 is that IWM is the equity exposure play bc low exposure to oil, low exposure to rate sensitive cos, low exposure to FX, and a chance to catch up over 2014's underperformance relative to SPX/QQQ.
And yeah this year has been airlines time to shine. Shoulda woulda coulda space for me, but the Peter Lynch play of "just find co with highest operating leverage bc when major cost input comes down, YoY comps/Earnings explode" would have been great there. Thinking that might be a similar driver for the food/restaurant space. You got JACK, and WWAV (the latter of which I am just waiting to get bought out, which is funny bc it was only recently spun-off from DF)