790 7 12
To add to the previous sell signal of 9 days generated back on the 24-25th of March, there is a new 10-day sell signal that triggered at today's close. The sell signal will be enhanced if SPY             is down on the day tomorrow, and additionally if it is down by at least 1.8 pts (which sounds obvious, but it can accelerate down from that level).

Note the exceptionally low level of VIXY             , which indicates market players are not looking for a volatile move down from here, when this looks to me to be the time when it is HIGHLY probable.

Look for the 200 day moving average to provide some support and a decent bounce, but then it will very likely give way and lead to an accelerated decline that clears out many longs (margin longs). It looks like speculation needs to be wrung out of the market, but time will tell.

Stay tuned!

Tim 4:13PM EST 206.43 SPY             March 31, 2015

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timwest PRO
2 years ago
I realize some of the comments and triangles in the graph are not explained. The green triangles are "range expansion up bars" and the red triangles are "range expansion down bars". I have put a few other comments in the chart that could be explained too. For example - the red-triangle followed by the green-triangle in January shows that the market didn't follow through on the decline despite the appearance that it had. The purple triangle on the right is a copy of the last "green triangle" to compare the strength of the market's advance. The market may "LOOK STRONG" but it is "relatively weak". Either way, my notes may make the chart more understandable. One quarter done for 2015. Tim
+2 Reply
good stuff Tim.

If nothing else, lower high in recent months implies rangebound until we can get to the upside of the range, or worse, as you suggest.

Still intrigued by IWM. My thesis for end of 2014/FY2015 is that IWM is the equity exposure play bc low exposure to oil, low exposure to rate sensitive cos, low exposure to FX, and a chance to catch up over 2014's underperformance relative to SPX/QQQ.
+1 Reply
timwest PRO SPYderCrusher
2 years ago
I like the concept of IWM/SPY. Last year certainly that was the red flag waving about the advance in SPY. Take a look at the long term return of the RAILS/AIRLINES (10+ years, weekly) if you want to see an even more interesting sector pair. Rails outperformed airlines in an almost linear fashion for 10+ years and now that ratio has turned the corner as of last year. Interesting.
+1 Reply
SPYderCrusher PRO timwest
2 years ago
definitely! That is a good one I hadn't looked / thought of that. One of my better trades last yr on r;r basis was CP, man what a beast.

And yeah this year has been airlines time to shine. Shoulda woulda coulda space for me, but the Peter Lynch play of "just find co with highest operating leverage bc when major cost input comes down, YoY comps/Earnings explode" would have been great there. Thinking that might be a similar driver for the food/restaurant space. You got JACK, and WWAV (the latter of which I am just waiting to get bought out, which is funny bc it was only recently spun-off from DF)
claydoctor timwest
2 years ago
Today we... breached the gap of March 29, powered down through the 50 day MA, and IMO we head for next stop 204, and then, if we don't bounce into another three driver pattern, to 198. If we bounce, bounce to the peak of the third peak of the drivers, but the third peak will be smaller with less volume, and then the big down turn.
suchir timwest
2 years ago
This change in ratio is purely due to oil...playing it is taking a stance on oil price...shale play resulted in rail sector outperforming...incentives gone in cheap oil...cheap oil obviously significantly lowers cost to airlines....
2 years ago
how do u form each tri?
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