goodguy

SPY:LONG TERM Speculation based on EWT and US Politics

Short
AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
Elliot Wave Theory basically says there are 5 waves up and then a correction. The size of the correction depends on the time frame and size of the waves. The chart gives my interpretation of the price action. This is subjective and like all complex images different folks see it various ways.
IF my interpretation is correct we are at a major critical point. If the last 5 waves up (since 2009) is 55 then we are in for long term major turmoil and depression. IF this is just the first wave of 55, then after a recession we may then move again toward prosperity, and peace.
In the USA our politics are at a major critical change point. Basically will we have one party rule or continue to have a balance of power (Congress, Executive Branch, and Judges.) ?? Will we continue to have peaceful transfer of power where the losing Party concedes a loss and just works to win the next one? Socialistic ideas and people have now basically taken over the public education system, many of the judges, many Churches, and much of the Democratic Party. Anti President Trump groups have stated that if Biden doesn't win "We will burn it down". I have no reason to think they won't do it. If the Democrats would win the House , the Senate, and the Presidency then have already indicated changes they could make to basically control everything for years to come. For all of us I truly hope I'm wrong. But we are in dangerous times so be careful, be loving, and be prayerful ( if you pray).
As always process your way. And have a great week ahead.

Comments

What a load of B.O.L.O.G.N.A.
+3 Reply
goodguy wileycoyote955
@wileycoyote955, Could you clarify. Are you saying my ideas all all BS.? Not that it would bother me. I'm just trying to understand what you are saying?
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Welp, up or down don't matter to me. Short the market or buy it up.

With that said, I do believe we are headed downwards. I don't think the SPY will reach the bottom of the expanding triangle. I have a put in the market and plan on selling them when I see higher highs and higher lows again, or when price action reaches a specific Fibonacci retracement level in retracing the big move from March to September. I suspect we'll reach a market bottom around the end of October to mid November.

Then, I'm hoping we launch onto another bull market, but it's all about waiting and seeing. It might head downwards after the election. It could trade sideways. I'm not going to try and predict that. My trading strategy will be reactionary.

But hey, "bulls take the stairs, bears take the window." Now's a good time to buy some puts and make some money $$$ (this is not financial advice lmao)
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goodguy trufeats
@trufeats, Thanks for taking to take the time to share your ideas with me. I didn't see that expanding triangle possible pattern. Expanding triangles are tough to see and trade.
+1 Reply
Most people want stocks to go up, it's in their own holdings, retirements, it's tied to every piece of wealth they have. Consequently they will support any policy that keeps the ponzi going. The retirement-age class with most of the wealth is in control. No doubt there's a lot of downside risk, but for a complete collapse we need a scenario so bad that when it happens, nobody gives a hoot about stocks anymore.
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activechamp06 MarkBench
@MarkBench if most people want the market to go up, expect massive pain.
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goodguy MarkBench
@MarkBench, I agree. I am one of those folks at "retirement age" . I never thought I would see what is now happening in America. The lost of love for capitalism and embrace of socialism, etc. the vicious hate, and lies being used for political power. The loss of love for freedom, the years of government expansion from both parties, the massive graft in politics. The loss of respect for all people of authority. The loss of knowledge about history and the constant indoctrination of young people by propaganda. The almost total loss of respect for human life. I hope that "so bad" scenario never happens but for the first time in my like I think it is possible. I can't predict what will happen. I just like complex images like charts. We all are guessing what will happen from this charts. I am just suggesting one possibility .
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good job
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Thats a nice work & thanks for the explanation..
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