jbird7839
Short

SPY - Fib Levels and Gap Fills

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
The 0.618 Fib Level on recent price spike will fill top gaps down to $304.
The 0.618 Fib Level from February 2009 until Present (10 Years+) coincides with past resistance/future support levels from August 2016.
The lower 0.618 Fib Level would have SPY at $214 roughly.
Next week we should find out if we have a small correction.
It may take into January to see if we significantly lower.

I am watching the breakdown of the current price pattern in the white ascending wedge .
Once price breaks from here, I am watching to see if the pink channel fails.
Below pink channel, there is a big drop down to the blue 10 year line support.

News:
While 2Yr/10Yr is not inverted, it is headed back towards zero.
It took from August 1, 2029 to August 14, 2019 to go negative. We are at the same level now. Two weeks is not much.
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=10Y2...

On CNBC Sri Kumar says the reason why unemployment is so low is because everyone needs two jobs because no one job will pay enough. 8mins into video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJCETcFF...

Fed Repo (Repurchase) thru 12/12 is preventing natural market dynamics by funding the problem through "Not QE"
New York Fed Reserve below shows Repo Operations through 12/12/2019 are about $35 Billion DAILY
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domes...

Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing.
I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts.
Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC , BTCUSD , GDX , VIXY .
Short SPY and AAPL .
Tyvm for post- very insightful. Been looking at those gaps myself- short SPY/QQQ/DIA/IWM; long VIX/UVXY!
+1 Reply
jbird7839 DaddySawbucks
@DaddySawbucks, You got it bro! Was trying to find some other opportunities, scanning earnings two weeks out.
All the charts look overbought, overpriced, or indecisive (gaps above and below price).
Either I am turning bearish, or because 70%+ of SPY, or all the charts are looking ready for correction.

I also agree that QQQ and IWM are both ready for correction - as in next week :)
I think Christmas will come in on time.

Found this today so I will give to you early (going in on next SPY chart).
https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_pe_ratio_forward_estimate
Forward looking EPS for SPY is going DOWN. From now until February there is a 12% EPS decrease forward estimate.
So we have more confirmation that from December into February we should continue downtrend. Also, we are 14 days or less from 2yr/10yr inversion..again in 2019.

Thanks for commenting. I also like tickers to follow trends for later, so I appreciate that in your comment as well.
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@jbird7839, Agree but we migh both be wrong so be ready for disappointment; I'm hedging all my bets with at least $10 spreads.
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jbird7839 DaddySawbucks
@DaddySawbucks, Still not sure if we might be ready for disappointment, or computers are in charge playing this to the last millisecond literally.
We were up at 3158 on SPX this morning, and retraced back to 3143.
Price will cross my channel support line (pink line) by tomorrow.
Large topping tail on SPX this morning. Undecided if I will add additional January Put, or reposition current Put for small loss.
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