That was aggressive.
I don't really have much to say besides it looks like what i was seeing yesterday in the markets was us getting frontrun. Not sure how you frontrun jobs numbers but for VIX and price to be down majority of the day today as well as the 10 yr for as far as it came down; it looks like traders were closing out haven positions to either reduce downside exposure or to free up cash/leverage. I heard on Bloomberg (can't find the data) that over 2.3 million calls were traded yesterday which was a record. Futures were up overnight a solid 20 handles before the numbers even came out.
What a day huh? Even if i had kept my long exposure my targets were hit Wed and yesterday at $310, and $312. My next target was $320, which i absolutely did not expect to hit all in the same week. This is insane.
The amount of overbought stocks we have in the market now is crazy. All of my leading indicators are cooked. Hertz is back to it's pre bankruptcy levels, AAL is up 72% for the week after being up well over 110% today. IWM had an 8% weekly gain, transports had a 10% move. This is mania/euphoric type behavior. We're 6% away from the Feb top in SPX. SIX PERCENT. While we still have a 13% unemployment rate with a projected GDP print of NEGATIVE 53% coming. I get we had a surprise to the upside today with numbers but the reaction we had today was not copacetic to where we are on the chart in my opinion.
Now as we all know this type of behavior can last... as long as it wants really. Just look at TSLA a few months back. But i do expect to see some profit taking especially after the move today. In my leading indicators (IWM, XLF, DJT) you could see a fade basically into the end of the day. That's not saying we're due for a huge correction. But i think everyone was taken by surprise today and will start to reposition/rebalance next week. Will that mean weakness. It should. The move today was extreme for the circumstances.
We did close below $320 though in SPY, and $3200 in SPX. Also closed below my noted resistance in IWM of $150.53. But DJI closed well above it's 200 period MA and NDX has literally anywhere to go because it's back to ATH's.
SPY showing the fight for $320
Anemic rejection
But resistance is resistance
Well outside of the BBands
I don't even have words for this
IWM showing the fight for $150.50
Gave it up at the end
Daily looking like it's needing a break - note volume (exhaustion?)
Resistance is resistance. Weekly is now above it's 200 period MA
VIX. Let's talk about the VIX. Today, again, while price was moving downwards, so was the price of the VIX. This is something i've never really seen before but this is the second day in a row i've noticed it. We also closed directly on the 200 period MA. We didn't retrace to the $24.50 close until AFTER the bell.
Divergences printing already on NDX weekly
Resistance is resistance. Look at where it closed. Also had a huge pop in volume today. We did close above all major MA's even on the weekly
XLF tagging it's 100 period, and DJT it's 200 period MA's on the weekly
But dailies looking a little overdone
Took a look at the Put/Call ratio today which also printed a pretty extreme reading
For strictly the SPX
Havens confirming trend with Gold actually breaking down out of it's consolidation range
Silver may be bullflagging
Gold closing outside of it's consolidation triangle
The 10 yr getting a good reaction off of resistance
Remember what i said about DXY? We'll see if it bounces or if this is just to burn some time to let the BBands catch up
A look around the broader market real quick
If you were short you just got BTFO. Like, taken out back and double tapped to the back of the head. But i do see profit taking coming. I don't know what the ultimate destination for the market is for when it decides to turn around. But i do know that we're pretty far extended and looking pretty frothy.
Have a good weekend everyone.
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA.
I don't really have much to say besides it looks like what i was seeing yesterday in the markets was us getting frontrun. Not sure how you frontrun jobs numbers but for VIX and price to be down majority of the day today as well as the 10 yr for as far as it came down; it looks like traders were closing out haven positions to either reduce downside exposure or to free up cash/leverage. I heard on Bloomberg (can't find the data) that over 2.3 million calls were traded yesterday which was a record. Futures were up overnight a solid 20 handles before the numbers even came out.
What a day huh? Even if i had kept my long exposure my targets were hit Wed and yesterday at $310, and $312. My next target was $320, which i absolutely did not expect to hit all in the same week. This is insane.
The amount of overbought stocks we have in the market now is crazy. All of my leading indicators are cooked. Hertz is back to it's pre bankruptcy levels, AAL is up 72% for the week after being up well over 110% today. IWM had an 8% weekly gain, transports had a 10% move. This is mania/euphoric type behavior. We're 6% away from the Feb top in SPX. SIX PERCENT. While we still have a 13% unemployment rate with a projected GDP print of NEGATIVE 53% coming. I get we had a surprise to the upside today with numbers but the reaction we had today was not copacetic to where we are on the chart in my opinion.
Now as we all know this type of behavior can last... as long as it wants really. Just look at TSLA a few months back. But i do expect to see some profit taking especially after the move today. In my leading indicators (IWM, XLF, DJT) you could see a fade basically into the end of the day. That's not saying we're due for a huge correction. But i think everyone was taken by surprise today and will start to reposition/rebalance next week. Will that mean weakness. It should. The move today was extreme for the circumstances.
We did close below $320 though in SPY, and $3200 in SPX. Also closed below my noted resistance in IWM of $150.53. But DJI closed well above it's 200 period MA and NDX has literally anywhere to go because it's back to ATH's.
SPY showing the fight for $320
Anemic rejection
But resistance is resistance
Well outside of the BBands
I don't even have words for this
IWM showing the fight for $150.50
Gave it up at the end
Daily looking like it's needing a break - note volume (exhaustion?)
Resistance is resistance. Weekly is now above it's 200 period MA
VIX. Let's talk about the VIX. Today, again, while price was moving downwards, so was the price of the VIX. This is something i've never really seen before but this is the second day in a row i've noticed it. We also closed directly on the 200 period MA. We didn't retrace to the $24.50 close until AFTER the bell.
Divergences printing already on NDX weekly
Resistance is resistance. Look at where it closed. Also had a huge pop in volume today. We did close above all major MA's even on the weekly
XLF tagging it's 100 period, and DJT it's 200 period MA's on the weekly
But dailies looking a little overdone
Took a look at the Put/Call ratio today which also printed a pretty extreme reading
For strictly the SPX
Havens confirming trend with Gold actually breaking down out of it's consolidation range
Silver may be bullflagging
Gold closing outside of it's consolidation triangle
The 10 yr getting a good reaction off of resistance
Remember what i said about DXY? We'll see if it bounces or if this is just to burn some time to let the BBands catch up
A look around the broader market real quick
If you were short you just got BTFO. Like, taken out back and double tapped to the back of the head. But i do see profit taking coming. I don't know what the ultimate destination for the market is for when it decides to turn around. But i do know that we're pretty far extended and looking pretty frothy.
Have a good weekend everyone.
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA.
