Bearish in the short term - negative outlook

On the daily, or the 4 hour as in this case, you can easily see what's going on from a technical standpoint. The top of the consolidation sits right at the 61.8 fib level measured from all-time high to recent lowest point, and is a point of GREAT resistance/interest as it has been tested many times previously. Within the consolidation, and from the recent bounce off the bottom of it, we are hovering around the 61.8 fib level measured from top of consolidation to recent low (bounce), which happens to be right at the 100 MA. Also, volume seems to be contracting on up days, implying there is little buying interest left. Fundamentally, there isn't much to be optimistic about in my opinion... the trade war is up in the air without a clear direction, the yields are falling with the 30 year hitting an all-time low this morning, and the 10/2 inversion seems to be widening, with the 10 year falling even on the up days. In addition to the yields falling on up (green) days, gold has either stayed flat or just slightly in the red on each green day. Gold is also inching towards a huge level - $1600 per ounce.

Am I saying we are headed for a recession? No. Not yet at least. I am not doom and gloom at the moment, but I do think in the short term (1 to 3 months) we are in for a crazy ride. That is, unless something gives on the trade war in a positive direction. With that said, I think if the trade war gives in a negative direction, the chances of a near-term (6 months to a year) recession increase substantially. However, at the moment, I think we are simply due for a 15% or so correction... something healthy to get the market stable again.