Ok so i have an idea for a SPY play and it looks scary.
For those with longs, good luck
Spy breakdown last week showed weakness and it looks like it will retrace to 434 before it does something again.
I expect it to drop to 415, if that cant hold, its going to 407 then 403.
407 is a critical zone, without it, it is most likely to go to 390.
Pending news, FOMC, the war, earnings.
Don't see how earning can help it for the March period with the war starting on Feb 24th.
Don't see any upside, anyway spy is due for a major major correction.
From backtesting, it looks even possible to go to 340-360 range.
For those with longs, good luck
Spy breakdown last week showed weakness and it looks like it will retrace to 434 before it does something again.
I expect it to drop to 415, if that cant hold, its going to 407 then 403.
407 is a critical zone, without it, it is most likely to go to 390.
Pending news, FOMC, the war, earnings.
Don't see how earning can help it for the March period with the war starting on Feb 24th.
Don't see any upside, anyway spy is due for a major major correction.
From backtesting, it looks even possible to go to 340-360 range.
now retesting the 420-415 breakdown(Fib retrace 0.5- 0.618). If this confirms, it will retest 407 then go to either the gap(400-403) or 390. Normally I would say 390(VPVR) but 400 is psychological.
*390 is the next major target for shorts.
I will be looking at 395 if it rejects 420 zone
Good luck those in shorts, hopefully we can find a bottom and start going long again.