And that old habit is buying the dip.
As we get into what i see as the death thoes of a record bull market the conditioning of market participants to buy up every dip is so far ingrained into the psyche of traders that people are still buying into this bounce.
But I still think big money has been selling into strength for the past week with no follow through on the reversal we had late last week. We're pinned between historical resistance and a tsunami of retail money that has been flooding into the market the past couple months just as the institutions have been cycling out of their positions from the bounce (in my opinion). CICO points to profit taking and volume has been basically stagnant. But there's also no meaningful sellers out there either because the big money has been trying to get out under the rader. We did have that shot across the bow late yesterday with a reversal but at the same time another old habit that is taking a while to die hard is the overnight market movement. I honestly have no idea who this is; but the majority of these moves up and down have been overnight. "They", especially the past week, have been supporting the market and treating the longs to gap ups from buying the dip. Old habits die hard.
Monday we bounced perfectly off of the long term hourly trend line from 08-09 crash. We're running out of steam around the .618 fib retracement and i think reality is set to take precedence once again here in the short term. I still stand by my targets of $279 (hit) - $272/$273 - $242.50 and ultimately a test of 200 area where we had the breakout for this last break long term break out. My long term target is somewhere around the monthly 200MA ($170). I wouldn't be surprised to see a test of the breakout area from 08-09 around $150 by EOY. But the other side of that coin is that we're just entering into a mania phase and we see a move to $400 before ultimately retracing back down to $150 area as the bubble pops in a spectacular blow off top.
Another thing to pay attention to is the daily BBands are tightening, usually signaling an outsized move in either direction
Keep your heads on a swivel. Happy trading.
This is not trading advice, this is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA
As we get into what i see as the death thoes of a record bull market the conditioning of market participants to buy up every dip is so far ingrained into the psyche of traders that people are still buying into this bounce.
But I still think big money has been selling into strength for the past week with no follow through on the reversal we had late last week. We're pinned between historical resistance and a tsunami of retail money that has been flooding into the market the past couple months just as the institutions have been cycling out of their positions from the bounce (in my opinion). CICO points to profit taking and volume has been basically stagnant. But there's also no meaningful sellers out there either because the big money has been trying to get out under the rader. We did have that shot across the bow late yesterday with a reversal but at the same time another old habit that is taking a while to die hard is the overnight market movement. I honestly have no idea who this is; but the majority of these moves up and down have been overnight. "They", especially the past week, have been supporting the market and treating the longs to gap ups from buying the dip. Old habits die hard.
Monday we bounced perfectly off of the long term hourly trend line from 08-09 crash. We're running out of steam around the .618 fib retracement and i think reality is set to take precedence once again here in the short term. I still stand by my targets of $279 (hit) - $272/$273 - $242.50 and ultimately a test of 200 area where we had the breakout for this last break long term break out. My long term target is somewhere around the monthly 200MA ($170). I wouldn't be surprised to see a test of the breakout area from 08-09 around $150 by EOY. But the other side of that coin is that we're just entering into a mania phase and we see a move to $400 before ultimately retracing back down to $150 area as the bubble pops in a spectacular blow off top.
Another thing to pay attention to is the daily BBands are tightening, usually signaling an outsized move in either direction
Keep your heads on a swivel. Happy trading.
This is not trading advice, this is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA
