YEAR LONG ANALYSIS. DON'T BE FOOLED, THINK RATIONAL.
I am not a fan of conspiracy theory so here is the logical deal. Most of you who had investments before the crash will benefit for this going to previous levels to recoup your losses. Traders also picked up on this idea and use it in their favour to make some money, helping the stock market to go up. It is logical to go with the trend, irrational is to stay on the sidelines. Again, please be careful here because markets reflect two things:
(1) - people's needs and desires
(2) - the economy
Now, everyone knows it is a time bomb, but it is reasonable to grow until it is not. That is when earnings and Q2 reports start coming in. The current financial indices are based on information from Jan, Feb, March, where March was slightly affected. Thus, I emphasise, WE HAVE YET TO SEE THE ECONOMIC IMPACT of April and May, where the majority of us were in lockdown. We should expect reports to be catastrophic in terms of numbers. This reports should come around late JULY.
A bit before this, the narrative in the media will be directed towards "doom and gloom" scenarios and I expect late June or early July people will start predicting that shit will hit the fan. Action markets are always proactive. So, we can expect a sell-off before the actual news come in. A third-grader can see it coming. IF you ask me why not earlier, it's because as I said, something is reasonable to go up UNTIL it is not. Thus, we can expect a sell-off mid-July and for a while, we will have a lot of bad news. (July- bad, August - bad, September- neutral?, November- DING!)
I think here is the time a new wave of bulls can set the scene. We got bored with the bad news and we know what is going on. Unemployment, not enough money, bla bla. But, here humans get optimistic because it "has been a while". Greatly timed with US elections, the re-election of Trump could be a great move to buy as I believe he will be able to push it further during his stay (we're talking 2024). It is logical to buy at that step since:
(1) He is pro-market
(2) Stocks were down for a while = a good price to go in
I hope you like this analysis. I am a rational trader and I do not believe in "dark forces" who move the markets. Markets are people.
(P.S. Psychology student here)
Please like and follow me!
(1) - people's needs and desires
(2) - the economy
Now, everyone knows it is a time bomb, but it is reasonable to grow until it is not. That is when earnings and Q2 reports start coming in. The current financial indices are based on information from Jan, Feb, March, where March was slightly affected. Thus, I emphasise, WE HAVE YET TO SEE THE ECONOMIC IMPACT of April and May, where the majority of us were in lockdown. We should expect reports to be catastrophic in terms of numbers. This reports should come around late JULY.
A bit before this, the narrative in the media will be directed towards "doom and gloom" scenarios and I expect late June or early July people will start predicting that shit will hit the fan. Action markets are always proactive. So, we can expect a sell-off before the actual news come in. A third-grader can see it coming. IF you ask me why not earlier, it's because as I said, something is reasonable to go up UNTIL it is not. Thus, we can expect a sell-off mid-July and for a while, we will have a lot of bad news. (July- bad, August - bad, September- neutral?, November- DING!)
I think here is the time a new wave of bulls can set the scene. We got bored with the bad news and we know what is going on. Unemployment, not enough money, bla bla. But, here humans get optimistic because it "has been a while". Greatly timed with US elections, the re-election of Trump could be a great move to buy as I believe he will be able to push it further during his stay (we're talking 2024). It is logical to buy at that step since:
(1) He is pro-market
(2) Stocks were down for a while = a good price to go in
I hope you like this analysis. I am a rational trader and I do not believe in "dark forces" who move the markets. Markets are people.
(P.S. Psychology student here)
Please like and follow me!