A weekly Long term SPY chart can tell a lot, would not at all consider myself a "bear" but I do think that people should be aware of not only this chart but a lot of the current factors and economic situations we are in right now, from chip shortages, lumber prices, to inflation, the reasons to hedge accordingly against a correction continue to show everyday. Patterns like to present themselves in strange ways.
We can look at SPY ATH from 2018, to its low in December 2018 and show retracement levels respectively. From the lows, we saw a 161% retracement from ATL's and then a correction. Considering where we are now, from ATH's in early 2020, to the lows of March 2020, Spy has retraced yet again, 161%. Obviously the correction was not purely technical based, because of the pandemic, but I do see continuing reasons on why as a whole the market is "overvalued". A healthy correction IMO is imminent, timing it is the hard part, I think we can see a continued SPY run towards 430-435 range, but at that point I would monitor positions closely and have cash ready.
Hedges for me makeup a small percentage of my portfolio, but i will continue to allocate profits from short term swing trades I make towards these hedges. Hedges can be as simple as inverse SPY ETF's, to commodities, to long term options positions. In my opinion, and for my investing strategy, the hedges I am using and will continue to add to these positions as we move higher are the following:
$GLD Call Options 6M-1Y Expirations
$UVXY $40 Call Options with various ranges of expiration dates, as early as July and late as December
$IEF 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Yield ETF Call Options
We can look at SPY ATH from 2018, to its low in December 2018 and show retracement levels respectively. From the lows, we saw a 161% retracement from ATL's and then a correction. Considering where we are now, from ATH's in early 2020, to the lows of March 2020, Spy has retraced yet again, 161%. Obviously the correction was not purely technical based, because of the pandemic, but I do see continuing reasons on why as a whole the market is "overvalued". A healthy correction IMO is imminent, timing it is the hard part, I think we can see a continued SPY run towards 430-435 range, but at that point I would monitor positions closely and have cash ready.
Hedges for me makeup a small percentage of my portfolio, but i will continue to allocate profits from short term swing trades I make towards these hedges. Hedges can be as simple as inverse SPY ETF's, to commodities, to long term options positions. In my opinion, and for my investing strategy, the hedges I am using and will continue to add to these positions as we move higher are the following:
$GLD Call Options 6M-1Y Expirations
$UVXY $40 Call Options with various ranges of expiration dates, as early as July and late as December
$IEF 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Yield ETF Call Options