benjihyam

$SPY market top? 50%+ correction incoming?

Short
BATS:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
Contrary to what everyone believes is going to happen:

"We're going to see a new ATH by the end of 2024 then we decline after"

"There's no way they're going to let the market fall in an election year"

I think we're about to start a historic correction to retest the lows from covid.

Since October, price action has gone parabolic, and normally when parabolas break we see a large correction.

There's a lot of catalysts that can drive the market lower from here. High rates, other central banks cutting more aggressively than us, policy mistakes, election uncertainty, etc. for those that care about fundamentals.

However, my assessment of the chart is that we're at a market top here and we're going to start our decline lower in the near future.

I think this move is likely to happen in the timeframe that everyone thinks we'll see new highs in (so in the next 6-9 months).

If you're long, I think it's a good idea to hedge here and or set tight stops, because the move down will happen faster than most people think is possible, should it play out.


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