Initial Notes: Didn't trade on Friday, new month begins, SPY confirmed breakout on weekly, and light economic news coming this week.
SPY - (FRIDAY) Unfortunately, my SPY prediction for Friday was off. I underestimated the short term strength of the markets as evident by Friday's big green trend day. I'm not afraid to admit I was wrong on my analysis, because nobody can always perfectly predict the markets, and because ultimately, the markets surprise us once in a while. A good trader knows when they are right, but an even better trader knows when they are wrong. I choose to believe that I was missing info and/or not seeing the bigger picture for Friday's session. Going forward I would like to try to shoot for at least 80% accuracy with my SPY predictions, trades, and general analysis of setups that show up on the scanner. I will document all stats per usual at the bottom of my lists.
(MONDAY) Going into Monday, we have a few things to consider. We broke out of the upper trendline on the weekly chart, which is extremely bullish in my opinion. We also had a really strong and big green day friday with little to no upside wick. This tells me that we are looking very bullish just based on the weekly chart breakout, and the strength of the most recent daily candle. My guess is that we will see a push higher than Friday's high, but I am unsure of how much higher SPY can/will go. We are still at risk of short term exhaustion, and therefore, I am skeptical to see if we will see strong continuation or just consolidation/pullback before making the next real move. The most reasonable expectation for tomorrow in my opinion, is a day where we can be green or red, but regardless see a push higher while staying within a 1% range's movement on the day. Id love to create an inside day tomorrow but I sort of doubt we will be that lucky. Weekly targets are set at 415 and 402 respectively. More analysis to come as the week goes on(Apologies for the super long analysis, just had a lot to say with Friday's fail)
Watchlist + Bias:
SQ - 2-1 Daily and 3-1 Weekly: Slightly Bearish
BABA - 2-1 Daily : Bullish
LULU - 2-1 Daily : Neutral
MMM - 3-1 Weekly: Bullish
DOCU - 3-1-1 Weekly: Bullish
Main Watch:
SQ - Great setup on this one. 3-1 Weekly is the main catalyst I am watching. Would love to play downside on this and get a good entry on a break to the downside tomorrow with the 2-1 setup we have on the daily. My main concern is the bullish strength of the markets currently because another day of bullish movement could invalidate our short entry. I am open to playing both sides, but I would definitely prefer downside as there is better R/R.
Main Watch From Previous Watchlist:
DOCU: (Status:) Loser (Personally Trade?) No
DOCU had a solid setup, but even the best setups can be ruined when the overall markets are incredibly strong in the opposite way as your bias. This was the case for DOCU on friday. What is interesting is that we are now bullish on the daily with DOCU, but still remain in an inside setup on the weekly. Im keeping this on the watchlist for now as I think the weekly breakout could hold a bigger move because DOCU has a pretty large average daily range.
FDX - this wasnt a main watch but was something I watched throughout the whole week, Study the weekly and daily chart because although I missed the move, it played out exactly as we had hoped for. Cons if swung from daily entry went from about 3.5 to 5.85.
Last Week's Watchlist Stats:
3/5 SPY predictions
3/6 Main Watch Winners
Top Winner: NVDA 75%+
Personal Stats:
5/7 on the week (71.4% win rate)
Overall: Green week. Happy with the results, but I know we can do way better than that. Green week is a green week though. Lets do it again.
Best of luck tomorrow everyone !
SPY - (FRIDAY) Unfortunately, my SPY prediction for Friday was off. I underestimated the short term strength of the markets as evident by Friday's big green trend day. I'm not afraid to admit I was wrong on my analysis, because nobody can always perfectly predict the markets, and because ultimately, the markets surprise us once in a while. A good trader knows when they are right, but an even better trader knows when they are wrong. I choose to believe that I was missing info and/or not seeing the bigger picture for Friday's session. Going forward I would like to try to shoot for at least 80% accuracy with my SPY predictions, trades, and general analysis of setups that show up on the scanner. I will document all stats per usual at the bottom of my lists.
(MONDAY) Going into Monday, we have a few things to consider. We broke out of the upper trendline on the weekly chart, which is extremely bullish in my opinion. We also had a really strong and big green day friday with little to no upside wick. This tells me that we are looking very bullish just based on the weekly chart breakout, and the strength of the most recent daily candle. My guess is that we will see a push higher than Friday's high, but I am unsure of how much higher SPY can/will go. We are still at risk of short term exhaustion, and therefore, I am skeptical to see if we will see strong continuation or just consolidation/pullback before making the next real move. The most reasonable expectation for tomorrow in my opinion, is a day where we can be green or red, but regardless see a push higher while staying within a 1% range's movement on the day. Id love to create an inside day tomorrow but I sort of doubt we will be that lucky. Weekly targets are set at 415 and 402 respectively. More analysis to come as the week goes on(Apologies for the super long analysis, just had a lot to say with Friday's fail)
Watchlist + Bias:
SQ - 2-1 Daily and 3-1 Weekly: Slightly Bearish
BABA - 2-1 Daily : Bullish
LULU - 2-1 Daily : Neutral
MMM - 3-1 Weekly: Bullish
DOCU - 3-1-1 Weekly: Bullish
Main Watch:
SQ - Great setup on this one. 3-1 Weekly is the main catalyst I am watching. Would love to play downside on this and get a good entry on a break to the downside tomorrow with the 2-1 setup we have on the daily. My main concern is the bullish strength of the markets currently because another day of bullish movement could invalidate our short entry. I am open to playing both sides, but I would definitely prefer downside as there is better R/R.
Main Watch From Previous Watchlist:
DOCU: (Status:) Loser (Personally Trade?) No
DOCU had a solid setup, but even the best setups can be ruined when the overall markets are incredibly strong in the opposite way as your bias. This was the case for DOCU on friday. What is interesting is that we are now bullish on the daily with DOCU, but still remain in an inside setup on the weekly. Im keeping this on the watchlist for now as I think the weekly breakout could hold a bigger move because DOCU has a pretty large average daily range.
FDX - this wasnt a main watch but was something I watched throughout the whole week, Study the weekly and daily chart because although I missed the move, it played out exactly as we had hoped for. Cons if swung from daily entry went from about 3.5 to 5.85.
Last Week's Watchlist Stats:
3/5 SPY predictions
3/6 Main Watch Winners
Top Winner: NVDA 75%+
Personal Stats:
5/7 on the week (71.4% win rate)
Overall: Green week. Happy with the results, but I know we can do way better than that. Green week is a green week though. Lets do it again.
Best of luck tomorrow everyone !