SPY: there are dozens of factors to consider when comparing these setups individually and trying to cross reference them gets a bit muddy but let's try...
- in 2007 we see the 200ema respected on the initial test, 2018 it was not, it initially failed and was reclaimed
- After the bounce on the 200ema in '07 we see the money cash money flow (CMF) index increasing were as '18 this is not the case, or as strong of the case.
- The duration from the initial test in '07 to the secondary test and breach was ~143 days. in '18 we have an initial breach (which we will use as the test) and this retest was under a much shorter duration
- with the increased range, and shorter duration, but with the volume difference it's difficult to tell from a quick glance if this is mathematically significant and indicative of more extreme conditions
- the distance in '07 from the initial 200ema test to the breach of the 520ema is ~303 days; where we havent tested the 520ema in '18 but tested this 520ema but it's getting dangerously close and when we see the 200/520 cross we see the larger portion of the pullback
In conclusion; while we have already confirmed on the shorter term a recession is pending I am now more curious to see if the duration will be longer than the originally anticipated 8-14 months (getting out of recession around Q4 19 early Q1 2020
- in 2007 we see the 200ema respected on the initial test, 2018 it was not, it initially failed and was reclaimed
- After the bounce on the 200ema in '07 we see the money cash money flow (CMF) index increasing were as '18 this is not the case, or as strong of the case.
- The duration from the initial test in '07 to the secondary test and breach was ~143 days. in '18 we have an initial breach (which we will use as the test) and this retest was under a much shorter duration
- with the increased range, and shorter duration, but with the volume difference it's difficult to tell from a quick glance if this is mathematically significant and indicative of more extreme conditions
- the distance in '07 from the initial 200ema test to the breach of the 520ema is ~303 days; where we havent tested the 520ema in '18 but tested this 520ema but it's getting dangerously close and when we see the 200/520 cross we see the larger portion of the pullback
In conclusion; while we have already confirmed on the shorter term a recession is pending I am now more curious to see if the duration will be longer than the originally anticipated 8-14 months (getting out of recession around Q4 19 early Q1 2020