JLJ002500
Short

SPY Wkly Chart - Long-term Analysis (It's time to be a BEAR)

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
AMEX:SPY            

A few observations:
- Building bear divergences
- Double bottom 181-182
- 9/21 EMA trending down
- MACD Negative (first time since 12/2011)
- First time crossed 100 MA since 12/2011

Even though $181 support held, the strong bull trend is losing momentum . I believe the days of faithfully making a new high following each market correction are history. Their is a high probability we won't exceed $214 this year.

It had a strong bounce off of the $181-182 support, forming a double bottom . It may continue to rise, but I expect it to lose momentum finding substantial resistance, especially between $200-214. I don't see it breaking $214, however if it does, I believe it would be short lived and be followed with an intense move back to $180 and possibly through $180 to $157.

If it doesn't beak $214, it could stay in a temporary range between $214-180.

A break of $180 would signal a fall to $157.52, 2007's high before the market dived.

Long-term...I'm bearish . I see the current price ($197.80) as a possible opportunity to SELL. Over $204 is a strong selling opportunity.

Bottom Line...Technically, a significant drop is coming and it will be sooner than later. I'm forecasting a 26-40% drop from 213.78 May 2015 high.


Killy_Mel
a year ago
I would agree - my analysis also shows its now rangebound and price is kicking down from upper band of the range

Reply
Killy_Mel Killy_Mel
a year ago
snapshot


Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out