DevinBoyle55
Long

$TLRY Tilray Extreme Oversold - RSI sub-15

NASDAQ:TLRY   TILRAY INC
$TLRY Tilray looking extremely oversold with RSI approaching 10 on multiple timeframes. Expecting a near term bounce at least back to the mid-80s within 1-2 weeks.


Note: Informational analysis, not investment advice.
I have 326 shares @ $193. (to my defense, I thought I had my stop limit set being new to trading and the software...thought I executed it but it's a two step - submit, then verify). I don't "need" the money today, however, my fear is be it a year, or two...it may not mature or worse collapse. I don't know if I should take the 75% loss this week and get back into the game (it's my life savings)....or....come back in a year. Very concerned, very frightened. To make matters worse, I invested my friends money as well (was doing well in DayTrading bringing in $15,000 in 10 days) but I have not done anything but simulating trading since September. In hindsight, I should have exited at $170 which was reached once in September and November (ballpark). Reading horror predictions of a $30 stock. I realize any comment is speculation, but, hopefully speculation based upon experience and knowledge. My gut says consider it lost and get a job.
Reply
@Supo, yikes....well #1 this is not investment advice...but if you want my opinion your first and biggest problem is you've practiced zero risk management or diversification. If you only had $60k to invest, it's a cardinal sin of investing to go all-in on one stock....not to mention a highly volatile, speculative, risky stock. I suppose if I were you (and I missed the opportunity to cut my losses at a tolerable price) the best option right now may be to hold and give it some time to hopefully recover a bit...as I wrote before I think we're very oversold right now. At the same time, to buy a little insurance it would probably be a good idea to look into buying some out of the money puts to cover your shares in the case of additional significant price declines. Lastly, once you've moved on from this Tilray debacle...I would suggest taking things a little slower and investing time into educating yourself about investing and risk management much more before diving in again. Good luck

(Note: I am not an investment professional and by no means an expert...this is just my opinion on your situation.)
+2 Reply
DevinBoyle55 DevinBoyle55
@DevinBoyle55, and when I say recover...I mean to a price where you're more comfortable with selling and cutting your losses. I think the chances of us seeing $193 any time soon are very slim. Unless this becomes a long term hold for you...I don't think you're making any money. I think your best hope at this point is to minimize losses as best you can. No offense but you literally bought at the top, your timing couldn't have been much worse.
Reply
Supo DevinBoyle55
@DevinBoyle55, Thank you. In my defense, though week, I thought and believed I set my stop. But, the software required 2 verification steps and I was confused. Thank you for sharing your perspective.
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What are your thoughts on how TLRY regularly disregards RSIs? On the way up the RSI was in the 80s/90s on the hourly/daily charts for weeks
+1 Reply
DevinBoyle55 artemis3234
@artemis3234, First off this would depend on what time frame you're referring to. Up above I have the two hour chart...what are you looking at? Most of the time I use the daily chart.
Secondly, what I've learned is a stock can stay in overbought territory for an elongated period of time but the visits to oversold territory are "usually" brief in "most" cases, obviously there can be exceptions to everything. Think about it this way...the number of new buyers of a stock can be endless and keep price overbought indefinitely. The number of sellers of a stock is a finite number.
Reply
SunnySra DevinBoyle55
@DevinBoyle55, well said. I believe is the case of tilray, we may stay oversold until a bottom is found. RSI is useful most of the time, but sometimes it being oversold or overbought won't make a difference. News is one big factor to that.
Reply
@SunnySra, Agreed, I don't use RSI solely for any trade. I use it in combination with some other factors...news, support level, gap-fills, etc.
+1 Reply
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