Despite continuing equity market weakness today, TLT had a reversal on it's daily candle (not shown). Looking at the resistance line shows that it was violated, but only briefly before racing back below, indicating a reversal of direction. Should easily come back down to around $119 and potentially $116 as a more aggressive target. Could even indicate a reprieve from equity market weakness for a short period. If you don't want to go short or buy puts, you can also buy TBF the short 20+ treasury ETF .
Market has since traded back above trend line, keeping the bull market alive in bonds for now. Treasury shorts will have to wait until the current equity bear market gets closer to its resolution before thinking about re-entering any of those trades. Bonds will provide protection here in a bear market, but will they be has helpful as in 08? Perhaps a good indicator for reversal in this trend would be a capitulation from all those who are short.
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