NASDAQ:TLT   Ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Jan 26, 2012 UPDATE: The last trade didn't generate an "entry" signal, so I am simply updating the chart. What I have done is to shift the price forecast over to the end of CY 2011and the price action is mimicking the action somewhat closely. It certainly looks like the bond bulls are cornered and they are stuck in their bonds. What you will see is every attempt possible to rally bonds in short, sharp moves at times of low liquidity or on overnight gaps as that is when the least amount of buying can create the biggest price advances. Short every 2 pt rally until we see prices under 110.
Read the text on the chart in red for more info.
By: Technical Tim,
10:20AM Friday, Jan 26, 2012
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Hi Tim, it was great analysis!
timwest Filibuster
Thanks gata :) That was very kind of you to say. I hope we can all keep finding decent risk-reward trades that set-up. I've been updating some comments on GLD, GG today, the other "safe-haven" plays. Just in case you were interested. These markets all work together sometimes and this is definitely one of those times. Cheers. Tim
Tim, please post update on this chart. Are you still expecting it at 110? I actually posted the similar idea in the end of 2011:
timwest charttrader
I'm glad we are on the same page. It took Bill Gross to get fully long bonds to help put a top in this market. I'm traveling on business and can do an update when I return and not just on my iPad. I think bonds are heading lower for a long time and selling the 2 pt rallies has worked nicely so far. Thanks for the question and suggestion.
Algokid timwest
Since bond price seem to go down, would it be a good idea to go long JNK ( high yield bonds) ?
admin timwest
We'll fix all Ipad issues in a couple of weeks and will create Ipad app after that.
timwest timwest
Selling 2 pt rallies is really working nicely :-)