BATS:TLT   ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND ETF
446 11 2
TLT             - 20 Year US Gov't Bond ETF

Notice all of the gap-UP green circles. I count 26 gap UPs versus 10 gap downs.

This market has had a tremendous amount of "short-squeeze" to rally up to these levels.

Also, the recent European market turmoil has led to "flight to safety" buying of US Treasuries.

Notice how the rally pattern is indicative of a "euphoria for bonds".

Any bullish economic news could send this market into a tail-spin.

Target 114.50-112.75 by June.
Stop loss 3 average ranges.
Ideal entry: Friday on a rally into the gap.

Technical Tim, Thursday
May 10, 2012 10:29AM EST 117.92 last
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sbokov PRO
4 years ago
yep, that about sums it up. nothing to add really, except a rhetorical - what bullish news do you think might affect it soon? What to watch for?
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timwest PRO sbokov
4 years ago
I would look for the jobs report to signal a typical "Get back to work mentality" that shows up each spring. I saw recent credit reports suggest that consumers are borrowing at the heaviest pace in a long time and that, of course, means that banks are lending (a big change) and that the appetite for spending and investing is increasing (a big change). Employment numbers are more of a lagging indicator, so if we see a big move in bonds on an employment number I may consider taking positions off instead of establishing new positions. I wont be watching home sales too closely, but those numbers are showing a broad improvement. China is cooling off, so I don't expect any tailwinds economically from China. Crude oil has been a heavy tax on the economy, so the recent drop in crude oil from 105 to 95 should bring some economic and psychological relief looking out for the next 3-12 weeks. Cheers. 11:58AM
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deeper
4 years ago
Ouch
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timwest PRO deeper
4 years ago
Gotta love the pain, it makes the pleasure that much better. However, if all you get is pain, then it's time for a change. This idea was a tight one, close stop and great risk/reward. Unfortunately it didn't work out. Fortunately, keeping losses manageable is the most important task of the trader (you, me). Always be mindful of how to exit at or near your desired exit point, whether in options or in outright positions. Thanks for commenting.
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deeper timwest
4 years ago
I am buying TBT Calls TLT puts today ;)
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