CosmicDust

SPY and TLT since last SPY all time high - 5/28/2016

NASDAQ:TLT   Ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Since last SPY             all time high (weekly close, on 5/18/2015 at $212.99), SPY             is still down 1.29%, and same period TLT             gained 7.85%. Even during strong rally between Feb and today, TLT             just dropped a little bit.

With the Fed beating the rate hike drum hard, common sense is that TLT             should be sold off from now on given the expectation of higher rate. It will be a surprise (and will tell us something) if TLT             continues to hold up from current level.

So far SPY             appears to be cheering the perspective of a near future rate hike, or the rally since Feb might just be a countertrend short-squeezed oversold rally.

To put new money into SPY             with the backdrop of next Fed rate hike, I must see SPY             to make a fresh all time high, and TLT             to be sold off. Otherwise I will just keep watching.
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