TNX Appears to have confirmed a base

I posted this chart a while back with the title " Eventually the new cycle is going to worry about this" referring to the fact that 10year yields appeared to be breaking out of a base. With the break above 1.27 today the high of the March 1st pin bar has been breached as well as the June 1st high confirming a base breakout. Although this is good news for financials higher rates are not good for pretty much everyone else. If we see a rapid rise in rates I don't believe the market would be happy. Its not that a percent or two would cripple the economy its that the market would fear that the Fed is losing control despite absolutely massive bond purchases. Think about it...if the Fed can't keep rates down with the current amount of money they are printing what would happen if the global appetite for bonds started to dry up and bond holders start to sell in fear of losing capital. Perhaps the spike in the repo overnight rates not so long ago was foreshadowing of things to come. I am very bullish on the market right now, but the possibility a rapid sell off in bonds scares me and is definitely something to keep and eye on.

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Seems like the news cycle just caught on to the fact rates are rising at a good pace despite massive Feb buying. The Fed will need to talk everyone off the ledge soon.

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Rates continue to rise. If rates reject at the 382 (1.50%) the market should calm down.. If the 382 cannot hold watch out below. Its obvious that low rates are what have been keeping this bull party alive.

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Another gap up on the TNX pushing rates above 1.40. This will make the market very nervous. Means bond market doesn't believe JPOW can or will hold rates down. I am watching the 382 fib level for a rejection and a move back down. Above the 382 rates could really get going which is something I don't think anyone wants.