$TOTAL Potential Bullish Dragon?
Fed day is upon us, and will ultimately decide our fate here more than likely.
We are potentially putting in a major bottom here after backtesting the 2017 peak as support so far. I do wonder if we are going to revist that wick low on a closing basis, and it wouldnt really invalidate the structure here, but i would much rather see the higher low on a closing basis here.
We peaked last year in May with the a 3 peaks distribution pattern, which led us down in the reaccumulation phase last July with the bullish dragon (much smaller than the potential forming here).
The dragon brought us all the way back up to the 1.13 extension, which is a common bull trap, or fake out zone, which gave traders the confirmation that the top was in.
With the ABC correction from the top, we formed a Head and shoulders pattern for the first leg down, followed by a corrective ABC up, and then the last impulsive wave down giving us the alteration in the larger wave.
It looks like we are trying to put in a double bottom here, and with a break above that 1.12 - 1.2 T area, we could begin to call this a dragon.
In any sense, if we maintain these lows, Wave 3 would extend to 1.5 trillion at 1.618 the length of wave 1,
We could anticipate Wave 5 reaching into the 2.0 extension which would be the double bottom measured move and the .886 target of the potential dragon.
We need to see the supply line / spine, breached here and these local highs broken to confirm.
Ive seen the argument for a head and shoulders pattern here and on bitcoin, which is why the confirmation is important, because with a new local high, the bull case for this type of pattern is called a Bullish rounding top, which is essentially a head and shoulders fake out.
I like the idea of the double bottom here because of the rounding nature of the first low, especially if we get a v shape move coming off this low, like and adam and eve.
MFI diverged at the low in July, but has lost the 50 level to the downside, and with STOCH turned down, while Volatility is expanding, there is still a risk to further downside, perhaps for a Wyckoff style spring event. This wouldnt invalidate the MFI divergence, unless the MFI makes a lower low in the process of price making a lower low.
We are potentially putting in a major bottom here after backtesting the 2017 peak as support so far. I do wonder if we are going to revist that wick low on a closing basis, and it wouldnt really invalidate the structure here, but i would much rather see the higher low on a closing basis here.
We peaked last year in May with the a 3 peaks distribution pattern, which led us down in the reaccumulation phase last July with the bullish dragon (much smaller than the potential forming here).
The dragon brought us all the way back up to the 1.13 extension, which is a common bull trap, or fake out zone, which gave traders the confirmation that the top was in.
With the ABC correction from the top, we formed a Head and shoulders pattern for the first leg down, followed by a corrective ABC up, and then the last impulsive wave down giving us the alteration in the larger wave.
It looks like we are trying to put in a double bottom here, and with a break above that 1.12 - 1.2 T area, we could begin to call this a dragon.
In any sense, if we maintain these lows, Wave 3 would extend to 1.5 trillion at 1.618 the length of wave 1,
We could anticipate Wave 5 reaching into the 2.0 extension which would be the double bottom measured move and the .886 target of the potential dragon.
We need to see the supply line / spine, breached here and these local highs broken to confirm.
Ive seen the argument for a head and shoulders pattern here and on bitcoin, which is why the confirmation is important, because with a new local high, the bull case for this type of pattern is called a Bullish rounding top, which is essentially a head and shoulders fake out.
I like the idea of the double bottom here because of the rounding nature of the first low, especially if we get a v shape move coming off this low, like and adam and eve.
MFI diverged at the low in July, but has lost the 50 level to the downside, and with STOCH turned down, while Volatility is expanding, there is still a risk to further downside, perhaps for a Wyckoff style spring event. This wouldnt invalidate the MFI divergence, unless the MFI makes a lower low in the process of price making a lower low.