Testing/tracking elliot wave theory. Please do not trade off idea without S/L. Not financial advice.
Link to previous chart:
If you press play on the previous chart, you'll see that I missed the top. The retracement also went a bit further down than my prediction. We should be going up soon if this new chart is correct. On this new chart you can see that the first wave has about 1080 bars (each day is a bar) and the 3rd wave has about 1060 bars and the 5th wave has about 490 bars (predicted); This is one scenario in which the 3rd wave isn't the shortest, but we never know where the 5th wave top might be. On the chart down below, I'll show another scenario that is a bit more highly possible.
Link to previous chart:
If you press play on the previous chart, you'll see that I missed the top. The retracement also went a bit further down than my prediction. We should be going up soon if this new chart is correct. On this new chart you can see that the first wave has about 1080 bars (each day is a bar) and the 3rd wave has about 1060 bars and the 5th wave has about 490 bars (predicted); This is one scenario in which the 3rd wave isn't the shortest, but we never know where the 5th wave top might be. On the chart down below, I'll show another scenario that is a bit more highly possible.
Trade active:
Wave 1 bars 1080
Wave 3 bars 1635
Wave 5 bars 888
This one is more likely to play out imo since the 3rd wave is usually the longest wave, also these numbers are more reasonable; 490 bars is kind of little. We might enter a minor bear market after if this chart plays out.
Wave 3 bars 1635
Wave 5 bars 888
This one is more likely to play out imo since the 3rd wave is usually the longest wave, also these numbers are more reasonable; 490 bars is kind of little. We might enter a minor bear market after if this chart plays out.
Trade active:
I've adjusted the wave count for both the teal and red one and added a sub cycle
Comment:
Chart Update from the daily to weekly. If you take a look at the white circle, it's where we had the biggest bear market in crypto. Where almost all altcoins dropped in 90% and the crazy part of it is that we still did not hit the oversold territory on RSI. Looking at the RSI, you can see that we've actually never gone to the oversold territory no matter how the market has been. This is a very bullish signal to me. We have always been sitting around the lower end of it, which we are at now or at the overbought territory (above 70). At the peak of 2018 bull run we had around 40B volume, today we are averaging 200B. We have at least 5x more people interested in this market so expect each bull run to get bigger and crazier. Each bull run lasts for at least 3 years. If this one started on march 2020 then it should run until march 2023 at least.