Total Market Cap Likely Dead Cat Bounce
I know all of us are on the edge of our seats waiting to see where crypto is going and if BTC is ready to take off. Let me explain why it won't be that easy and when things seem too good to be true, they likely are.
I have made a previous post on the Total Market Cap explaining the critical bullish trend line it most hold to remain with bullish momentum. A break below this level will signal a Bear Market without question and will decide the direction of crypto for the coming months. Here is that post,
Now to find the devil in the details; In the chart, The RSI is still clearly in the downtrend for momentum. We have seen BTC break out of its Daily RSI resistance but this might have been due to the amount of room the Total had to rise. We see a looming 100MA and 200MA Death Cross approaching on the Daily time frame. We have seen this 3 times prior in the last 7 years and each time it was met with a significant drop. Let me give you some examples and ill start with the one that is almost identical in both circumstance and price action,
We see the exact same 100MA and 200MA Death Cross, a breakdown of the exact key bullish level, followed by a dead cat bounce and then a 40% drop afterward.
Here is a closer look at 2019
Here is another example of the 100MA and 200MA death cross that happened right after the 2017 Bull Run top.
Again this was followed by a substantial 78% drop. I do NOT expect this significant drop again, this only occurred because of just how far it separated from the bullish trendline.
The similarities do not stop at just the Total, it is also present in BTC at the moment as well.
Pay very close attention to just how similar the Moving Averages are and the circumstances involved in the examples above. These are significant things to take note of and really suggest further selling pressure is going to follow.
Here is the Total on the 2 Week time frame where we see a VERY Bearish cross on the MACD and low levels on the Stoch RSI. These signals will very likely carry to the 3 week and monthly time frames next and these have all been indicators of previous Bear Markets.
If the total fails to hold that Bullish trendline there will be no more denying the Bear Market. Another thing to keep in mind is this pump was due to 100 Million shorts being squeezed. Without that, we would not be at this level.
As with the Bulls being liquidated at the bottom and a rise is expected; When the Bears get liquidated at the top is a drop expected?
Thank you for making it this far into the analysis, I hope this was insightful in any way and gave you an alternate perspective on the situation. I appreciate the support greatly, and comments are more than welcome;
I have made a previous post on the Total Market Cap explaining the critical bullish trend line it most hold to remain with bullish momentum. A break below this level will signal a Bear Market without question and will decide the direction of crypto for the coming months. Here is that post,
Now to find the devil in the details; In the chart, The RSI is still clearly in the downtrend for momentum. We have seen BTC break out of its Daily RSI resistance but this might have been due to the amount of room the Total had to rise. We see a looming 100MA and 200MA Death Cross approaching on the Daily time frame. We have seen this 3 times prior in the last 7 years and each time it was met with a significant drop. Let me give you some examples and ill start with the one that is almost identical in both circumstance and price action,
Here is a closer look at 2019
Here is another example of the 100MA and 200MA death cross that happened right after the 2017 Bull Run top.
Again this was followed by a substantial 78% drop. I do NOT expect this significant drop again, this only occurred because of just how far it separated from the bullish trendline.
The similarities do not stop at just the Total, it is also present in BTC at the moment as well.
Here is the Total on the 2 Week time frame where we see a VERY Bearish cross on the MACD and low levels on the Stoch RSI. These signals will very likely carry to the 3 week and monthly time frames next and these have all been indicators of previous Bear Markets.
If the total fails to hold that Bullish trendline there will be no more denying the Bear Market. Another thing to keep in mind is this pump was due to 100 Million shorts being squeezed. Without that, we would not be at this level.
As with the Bulls being liquidated at the bottom and a rise is expected; When the Bears get liquidated at the top is a drop expected?
Thank you for making it this far into the analysis, I hope this was insightful in any way and gave you an alternate perspective on the situation. I appreciate the support greatly, and comments are more than welcome;
Comment:
We have now been directly at resistance on the RSI for a couple of days now, there is now no more room for it to run unless it corrects itself and continues.
Comment:
We also see a local breakdown of the bullish trendline which indicates further weakness from here