Has the Total 1 seen a bottom? (Opinion)
Since the beginning of 2022 we've seen one of the most heinous drops the cryptocurrency space has seen in many years, but this is normal right? 82% average drops before bear cycles end is a normal in our field. To the trained and weathered HODL'r, this isn't anything new and should be expected at this point. Something to note here is that we have not seen 82% yet. We've seen a 75% drop that fell into a consolidation pattern for several weeks, which lead to this current rally. This begs the question, "have we seen a floor?"
Why would I be asking this though? I bet you think I own some Bitcoins and I'm waiting for them to go to $1,000,000 dollars, and then I still won't sell them. Well, if you guys haven't realized it yet, I don't HODL cryptocurrencies. Actually my own positions only are intraday or maybe 3-4 days at most, then converted to a stablecoin and I don't use Tether. HODL'ing is a common term in the crypto space that stands for Holding On (for) Dear Life or never selling. I don't know the entomology of where this term originated, but what it has done is create an extremely bad culture for how we invest in the asset itself. I believe this is one of the main reasons why crypto looks so bad to the outsiders of our space. So many influencers and clueless retail investors just saying to buy an asset and wait for it to go up in value for no reason is obviously going to not do anything productive for anyone. I mean, what are we talking about NFT's here? Don't even get me started with the people who bought Bitcoin at $50,000 or $60,000 USD.
This is one reason of why I'm trying to push more education into this space whether people want it or not. So when looking at my charts, just remember I'm not one of the clueless Bitboys who want a Lambo and a yacht I am a portfolio manager. Stablecoins are great to have as a diversification in any portfolio and it doesn't mean the majority of my portfolio is cryptocurrency either. I just enjoy posting it because of its volatility. I'm a business consultant and financial literacy teacher who's interested in digital currencies because it's obvious that will be the future of finance, I mean even the central banks are working on digital currencies now, so give me a little credit for trying to bridge the gap.
In regards to the rally we've seen over the last 2 weeks, I believe this is a reaction rally and I know the technicals are not supporting me on this. Cryptocurrency has been trading in correlation with the world stock markets in extreme similarity. I've been writing about this for the last couple months. With institutional investors being so heavily involved in our space now, a lot of companies that haven't been investing in not only Bitcoin, but cryptocurrencies as a whole are now collapsing their balance sheets. This is what is leading the massive sell off in markets across the world. The riskiest assets go first, those being cryptocurrencies.
It is historically notable that you can have rallies of 25% or more bare cycles that end up just leading to a more fierce move down and I have to continue to note, our geo-political landscape is on fire right now with the likes of Ukraine and Russia escalating, as well as the fleeting diplomacy between the Chinese and Taiwan nations. Sanctions like we haven't seen since WWII are being put in place day by day. Our world supply chains are breaking down and trade is being disrupted on scales that are going to have severe consequences globally down the line. The longer this goes on the more noticeable and then fierce these market shifts are going to be.
I believe we still have another move down coming, especially if we're talking about before the end of the year. This is one reason why I have a position in SQQQ currently. With rate hikes continuing to be planned there are going to be a lot of companies that will be letting go a lot of their portfolio during this next recession. I cannot say this enough, THIS IS A TRADERS MARKETS. THIS IS NOT AN INVESTORS MARKET. So prepare yourself, make great trades and retire early or take on the HODL mentality and have your money locked up , I guess. One thing I've been really thinking about lately is that recessions can make millionaires, even billionaires now. Don't let any opportunity slip by and make good decisions.
Why would I be asking this though? I bet you think I own some Bitcoins and I'm waiting for them to go to $1,000,000 dollars, and then I still won't sell them. Well, if you guys haven't realized it yet, I don't HODL cryptocurrencies. Actually my own positions only are intraday or maybe 3-4 days at most, then converted to a stablecoin and I don't use Tether. HODL'ing is a common term in the crypto space that stands for Holding On (for) Dear Life or never selling. I don't know the entomology of where this term originated, but what it has done is create an extremely bad culture for how we invest in the asset itself. I believe this is one of the main reasons why crypto looks so bad to the outsiders of our space. So many influencers and clueless retail investors just saying to buy an asset and wait for it to go up in value for no reason is obviously going to not do anything productive for anyone. I mean, what are we talking about NFT's here? Don't even get me started with the people who bought Bitcoin at $50,000 or $60,000 USD.
This is one reason of why I'm trying to push more education into this space whether people want it or not. So when looking at my charts, just remember I'm not one of the clueless Bitboys who want a Lambo and a yacht I am a portfolio manager. Stablecoins are great to have as a diversification in any portfolio and it doesn't mean the majority of my portfolio is cryptocurrency either. I just enjoy posting it because of its volatility. I'm a business consultant and financial literacy teacher who's interested in digital currencies because it's obvious that will be the future of finance, I mean even the central banks are working on digital currencies now, so give me a little credit for trying to bridge the gap.
In regards to the rally we've seen over the last 2 weeks, I believe this is a reaction rally and I know the technicals are not supporting me on this. Cryptocurrency has been trading in correlation with the world stock markets in extreme similarity. I've been writing about this for the last couple months. With institutional investors being so heavily involved in our space now, a lot of companies that haven't been investing in not only Bitcoin, but cryptocurrencies as a whole are now collapsing their balance sheets. This is what is leading the massive sell off in markets across the world. The riskiest assets go first, those being cryptocurrencies.
It is historically notable that you can have rallies of 25% or more bare cycles that end up just leading to a more fierce move down and I have to continue to note, our geo-political landscape is on fire right now with the likes of Ukraine and Russia escalating, as well as the fleeting diplomacy between the Chinese and Taiwan nations. Sanctions like we haven't seen since WWII are being put in place day by day. Our world supply chains are breaking down and trade is being disrupted on scales that are going to have severe consequences globally down the line. The longer this goes on the more noticeable and then fierce these market shifts are going to be.
I believe we still have another move down coming, especially if we're talking about before the end of the year. This is one reason why I have a position in SQQQ currently. With rate hikes continuing to be planned there are going to be a lot of companies that will be letting go a lot of their portfolio during this next recession. I cannot say this enough, THIS IS A TRADERS MARKETS. THIS IS NOT AN INVESTORS MARKET. So prepare yourself, make great trades and retire early or take on the HODL mentality and have your money locked up , I guess. One thing I've been really thinking about lately is that recessions can make millionaires, even billionaires now. Don't let any opportunity slip by and make good decisions.
