This is a slower account that I am using a portion of my TFSA for , the backtest method is to sell 1/3rd at 2R but I am changing this to get more proactive on taking profits , this is its second trade of 2022 and my first trade was a loser but honestly should not have been . The stop was too far imo and I still had a 2R de-risk point .
So , I am doing something similar to my swing account and having a 1R and 2R profit target but instead of selling 1/4 , I am going to sell 1/6 each time . This way a fully de-risked position will still leave me with 2/3rds of my shares . This account focuses entirely on TQQQ that's all it trades and in a good environment it can compound pretty nicely . It is back tested quite extensively , where I manually go over the chart to log the data and compiled about 12 years worth of trades and various different trade management structures , one thing worth noting is that the TQQQ had lots of periods where it made all time highs though these 12 years and I have not tested it through long periods of market underperformance . However , just the same with my swing account , this is precisely why we de risk or at least try to ;)
It has had periods in the last 12 years of data where I have had 6 losers in a row , 5 is more common . Largest amount of winners in a row is 7 .
There is not a huge amount of difference between this TQQQ TFSA account vs my swing account but it takes way less trades and takes much heavier positions , I originally used the whole account to take a position but I have since changed this to 3% risk vs AUM because I know the most lost trade in a row was 6 . So based on the last 12 years , that's a max 12 % account drawdown which is pushing the limits of where the math of what it takes to recover starts to work against you .
Ok so there is a quick explainer of why I have so many TQQQ trades of late lol , I like TQQQ ~
Oh yea , I am pretty sure that a TFSA account is similar to IRA for us Canadians btw for those wondering ...
Entry - 28.43
Stop - 26.57
PT1 -30.31, sell 1/6 , raise stop
Pt2 - 32.18, sell 1/6 , stop same
run balance ..
So , I am doing something similar to my swing account and having a 1R and 2R profit target but instead of selling 1/4 , I am going to sell 1/6 each time . This way a fully de-risked position will still leave me with 2/3rds of my shares . This account focuses entirely on TQQQ that's all it trades and in a good environment it can compound pretty nicely . It is back tested quite extensively , where I manually go over the chart to log the data and compiled about 12 years worth of trades and various different trade management structures , one thing worth noting is that the TQQQ had lots of periods where it made all time highs though these 12 years and I have not tested it through long periods of market underperformance . However , just the same with my swing account , this is precisely why we de risk or at least try to ;)
It has had periods in the last 12 years of data where I have had 6 losers in a row , 5 is more common . Largest amount of winners in a row is 7 .
There is not a huge amount of difference between this TQQQ TFSA account vs my swing account but it takes way less trades and takes much heavier positions , I originally used the whole account to take a position but I have since changed this to 3% risk vs AUM because I know the most lost trade in a row was 6 . So based on the last 12 years , that's a max 12 % account drawdown which is pushing the limits of where the math of what it takes to recover starts to work against you .
Ok so there is a quick explainer of why I have so many TQQQ trades of late lol , I like TQQQ ~
Oh yea , I am pretty sure that a TFSA account is similar to IRA for us Canadians btw for those wondering ...
Entry - 28.43
Stop - 26.57
PT1 -30.31, sell 1/6 , raise stop
Pt2 - 32.18, sell 1/6 , stop same
run balance ..
Trade active:
PT1 reached and sold 1/6 stop up to half risk
Trade closed: stop reached
艾力克~