Tesla Motors - TSLA - Weekly - Elliott Wave (Guess)

1042 15 19
Long term chart after discussing the count with other users here at TradingView.

Don't bet your retirement account on this going to 1100, but that gives it a market cap of just over $100 billion, which may seem far-fetched but we never know.

Keep in mind the next big upleg could start from around the 200 level (down 20% from here). So, it's going to take more than a year to discredit this chart. I'd guess it will take a drop to $150 to invalidate this count.

Tim 251.93 last TSLA             +11.69 today on the "Model-D Sneak Peak" after the close yesterday
Comment: Wave 2 has unfolded into a much longer, more complex pattern given all of the developments with the Model 3, Gigafactory, Driver-Assist/Autonomous, competition ahead from GM's Bolt, accidents, capital needs, 2ndary share sales, losses.... but that's growing pains! Stay tuned.
Comment: Wave 1 is probably best labeled as the build of the Tesla Roadster many years before. To label the IPO as Wave 1 may have been very premature. I'll get the dates from Wikipedia: Produced 2008-2012. So effectively the transition from the start of one model to the next was 4 years. Model-X has had a bumpy start, so that pattern continues. Model-3 is pushing the envelope for a much faster release.
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the resulting update looks like one long distribution /accumulation period
Would you pleas repost this chart updating with the current info and situation?
I can't wait until there is a "REPUBLISH" button - this one is worth republishing at this point in time (6 months later). Published end of September 2014, now April 7, 2015.
+1 Reply
Excellent stuff Tim!
2use timwest
Ill call it - "i told you so" button :)
Not a bad forecast for an "Elliott Wave Guess" -
+2 Reply
Are you still a believe in your old prediction from 3 months ago?
I'm just looking at it today! I stumbled into it after publishing my latest chart on the mimic from 2010-2013 to the pattern now. Thanks for asking. It looks pretty good. I think things look pretty good for the count that I posted 6 months ago. It may just take a little more time to finish the corrective wave 2 here... So far though, the price level is about right! Tim April 7 ,2015
thanks for the response and my apologies for the grammatical errors. I hope you are right on the price action. The price action would require more than car sales. We have to see what type of sale and margin can tesla generate in the energy market.
I agree with you and at the same time I can say that If you told me exactly what they produced and sold and exactly what their margins were, I'd have to still admit that I'd have ZERO idea of where the stock would be. Anything is possible for TSLA stock price, literally. Crowds of people can be crazy and unpredictable at times and other times they can be predictable. I just try to find the path that makes intuitive sense. I think the way TSLA shares have acted tells a story in itself. I don't think profitability is how to predict TSLA, but it could help. I just think we need to see market acceptance and the company keep moving down the price curve to hit more sales. I also think that the stock is affected a lot by its short position. There are a lot of bears in the stock that theoretically have to buy back at some point. They pay a lot of money to borrow shares (that enriches stock brokerage firms), so it isn't "free" to be short TSLA stock (Just adding that side point).
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