Tesla Motors - TSLA - Weekly - Elliott Wave (Guess)

1015 15 19
Long term chart after discussing the count with other users here at TradingView.

Don't bet your retirement account on this going to 1100, but that gives it a market cap of just over $100 billion, which may seem far-fetched but we never know.

Keep in mind the next big upleg could start from around the 200 level (down 20% from here). So, it's going to take more than a year to discredit this chart. I'd guess it will take a drop to $150 to invalidate this count.

Tim 251.93 last TSLA             +11.69 today on the "Model-D Sneak Peak" after the close yesterday
Comment: Wave 2 has unfolded into a much longer, more complex pattern given all of the developments with the Model 3, Gigafactory, Driver-Assist/Autonomous, competition ahead from GM's Bolt, accidents, capital needs, 2ndary share sales, losses.... but that's growing pains! Stay tuned.
Comment: Wave 1 is probably best labeled as the build of the Tesla Roadster many years before. To label the IPO as Wave 1 may have been very premature. I'll get the dates from Wikipedia: Produced 2008-2012. So effectively the transition from the start of one model to the next was 4 years. Model-X has had a bumpy start, so that pattern continues. Model-3 is pushing the envelope for a much faster release.
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Tim I could be completely wrong. However, Starting from 2012 low, I think 5 wave cycle appears to be complete with overall counts suggesting with confirming RSI. If so we could have significant retracement which could also coincide with general market reversal or correction. Not sure what wave count we would have had if we had price action prior to 2011 but it could have shown larger degree wave in which a complete cycle is formed, if not then we may have this as larger degree wave with wave in progress if we continue with the correction as shown on my chart. Not sure how this plays with your fundamental overlay.
+1 Reply
The count can't be right for one reason: Post (V) reaction doesn't violate the 2-4 trend line in a violent way, which suggests (V) isn't the end of the impulsive advance. Also, wave 4 is tiny compared to the smaller degree (iv) before it. The rules of complexity aren't being applied in this chart.
Seems people have different opinions. There was another chart on waves. Not the best counter of waves, but sure is interesting to see these opinions.
5th Wave is on Progress
The very first thing I see with this chart makes the entire count invalid, from my perspective. The logic of that count is defying complexity rules. Notice the red wave 4 (lower level degree) to the green wave (4) is more complex, larger, and takes more time. The entire count has to be re-calculated as a result. I don't understand the a-b-c legs for the 5th of the 5th of the 5th. So, I'd rather just say "Thank you for your time 2use for posting" - I don't know what rules of logic this chart is based on. It's much easier to discuss the methods that I outline (Time at Price, Key Hidden Levels, etc) as they don't require the extremely complex levels of logic needed for Elliott Wave.
2use timwest
Sorry, that is not my chart, but a user did post it. I do find hidden levels lot easier to follow indeed. I just got a good lesson on waves as well . trying to learn as much as possible before the next crash :
Are you still a believe in your old prediction from 3 months ago?
I'm just looking at it today! I stumbled into it after publishing my latest chart on the mimic from 2010-2013 to the pattern now. Thanks for asking. It looks pretty good. I think things look pretty good for the count that I posted 6 months ago. It may just take a little more time to finish the corrective wave 2 here... So far though, the price level is about right! Tim April 7 ,2015
thanks for the response and my apologies for the grammatical errors. I hope you are right on the price action. The price action would require more than car sales. We have to see what type of sale and margin can tesla generate in the energy market.
I agree with you and at the same time I can say that If you told me exactly what they produced and sold and exactly what their margins were, I'd have to still admit that I'd have ZERO idea of where the stock would be. Anything is possible for TSLA stock price, literally. Crowds of people can be crazy and unpredictable at times and other times they can be predictable. I just try to find the path that makes intuitive sense. I think the way TSLA shares have acted tells a story in itself. I don't think profitability is how to predict TSLA, but it could help. I just think we need to see market acceptance and the company keep moving down the price curve to hit more sales. I also think that the stock is affected a lot by its short position. There are a lot of bears in the stock that theoretically have to buy back at some point. They pay a lot of money to borrow shares (that enriches stock brokerage firms), so it isn't "free" to be short TSLA stock (Just adding that side point).
Not a bad forecast for an "Elliott Wave Guess" -
+2 Reply
I can't wait until there is a "REPUBLISH" button - this one is worth republishing at this point in time (6 months later). Published end of September 2014, now April 7, 2015.
+1 Reply
Excellent stuff Tim!
2use timwest
Ill call it - "i told you so" button :)
Would you pleas repost this chart updating with the current info and situation?
the resulting update looks like one long distribution /accumulation period
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