Morning weakness has extended and now this bear flag is taking shape. I would watch carefully any bounces inside this flag. If the bounces are weak, one might consider increasing shorts with a stop above the flag.
I covered my fast shorts from last week. Still holding put spreads expiring in 2 weeks, bought last week so paying nicely.
I covered my fast shorts from last week. Still holding put spreads expiring in 2 weeks, bought last week so paying nicely.
Trade active:
Today's rally on clearly decelerating volume is a good place to add to shorts.
Trade active:
This trade is going well.
With the market weakness, TSLA is threatening to break down out of the flag. I think it will in the days to come. Again, I've covered some of my faster positions and am still holding some "safer" positions (put spreads and short calls). Will look for a bounce today/tomorrow.
With the market weakness, TSLA is threatening to break down out of the flag. I think it will in the days to come. Again, I've covered some of my faster positions and am still holding some "safer" positions (put spreads and short calls). Will look for a bounce today/tomorrow.
Trade active:
This trade is working really well. Yesterday was weaker than expected, and it broke below a horizontal level of 222.50. I added a slug of put spreads on a weak backtest of that level. It's paying very well today, it will be my main position for further downside into next week.
I would consider re-adding shorts on any backtest of 218, 220, 222. But judging from today's action, we might not get it. It looks very weak with volume evaporating.
I would consider re-adding shorts on any backtest of 218, 220, 222. But judging from today's action, we might not get it. It looks very weak with volume evaporating.
Trade active:
After covering most of my shorts yesterday, I'm cautiously re-adding. I think it could rally as high as 230 if next week is "risk-on". I doubt it though, today's rally in SPY and IWM are pathetic volume, especially in light of IWM's break of new lows yesterday. The equity markets are in serious trouble.
Comment:
Trade active:
This stock is going down in flames, just like its cars and solar installations.
I drew out two possible paths from here:
Yellow path = natural death in the markets. (Q3 earnings will completely destroy the stock)
Red path = accelerated death due to Walmart lawsuit blowing up, more lawsuits piling on, Justice Dept getting involved, or black swan market crash. Actually a very significant risk with this company.
I drew out two possible paths from here:
Yellow path = natural death in the markets. (Q3 earnings will completely destroy the stock)
Red path = accelerated death due to Walmart lawsuit blowing up, more lawsuits piling on, Justice Dept getting involved, or black swan market crash. Actually a very significant risk with this company.
Comment:
Wow - just reviewing how these last two weeks played out. I navigated this TSLA trade almost perfectly, selling high and covering low. TSLA did not quite rally up to 230 where I would have "backed up the truck", but came VERY close. I managed to add positions anyway as I saw weakness coming in.
When the rumor about VW acquisition spiked the stock premarket, I laughed. This stock has pumps and this is the weakest, least believable one yet. They truly are out of ammo to prop this up. I managed to hold through the chop.
On Friday's action - I actually did NOT cover much on the lows. I wrapped some of my naked puts into spreads, reducing risk. But still very short.
This is because I think Powell and Trump's actions today is a catalyst for a major acceleration to the downside in markets. This coming crash has been well foretold by tons of fundamental data, but the timing has been difficult. I expect the weakest parts of the bubble market to blow up first, namely TSLA and BYND, followed by NFLX UBER LYFT and IWM.
Short TSLA is the "easy" money on a fundamental perspective, though the high short interest makes it VERY difficult real time. Cover on weakness, sell strength, don't chase don't chase don't chase. It's tough real time, but these two weeks have been a massive winner.
When the rumor about VW acquisition spiked the stock premarket, I laughed. This stock has pumps and this is the weakest, least believable one yet. They truly are out of ammo to prop this up. I managed to hold through the chop.
On Friday's action - I actually did NOT cover much on the lows. I wrapped some of my naked puts into spreads, reducing risk. But still very short.
This is because I think Powell and Trump's actions today is a catalyst for a major acceleration to the downside in markets. This coming crash has been well foretold by tons of fundamental data, but the timing has been difficult. I expect the weakest parts of the bubble market to blow up first, namely TSLA and BYND, followed by NFLX UBER LYFT and IWM.
Short TSLA is the "easy" money on a fundamental perspective, though the high short interest makes it VERY difficult real time. Cover on weakness, sell strength, don't chase don't chase don't chase. It's tough real time, but these two weeks have been a massive winner.
Comment:
I need to be more disciplined and learn to COVER more on the down days. This time, I got greedy and "hoped" for a breakdown of 211. That's okay, I'm mostly playing with profits at this point.
But today, TSLA jumped on China tax cut news... to slam into its 50ma from underneath. This is now starting to look like a good short entry. Had I been disciplined and covered all my shorts at the bottom, I would start to scale in again here.
But today, TSLA jumped on China tax cut news... to slam into its 50ma from underneath. This is now starting to look like a good short entry. Had I been disciplined and covered all my shorts at the bottom, I would start to scale in again here.
However, this is an FOMC week and it's been very low volume and volatile. I think a positive reaction to Powell could send TSLA up to tag the 20 and 50ma from underneath. After all, if they engage QE and negative yields, this whole crop of insolvent fraud companies may go on being zombies forever. I'm talking TSLA, WeWork, BYND, UBER, LYFT. Free money for everyone! And that's why I am long Gold as my main trade.