Today it feels like we have panic buying into XLE.... at the exact prices they found at the 2008 top!
So what if XLE and SPX turn down from here? It would follow the analogue of 2008 where XLE tops into a bull trap for SPX.
Will they let it crash?
If so, nothing will be safe, not even Gold or Bitcoin. Cash and shorts only.
TLT is down 20% YTD. TLT is DOWN on a week where GDP printed -1%. That is very unusual and dangerous for US markets.
If they let it crash, US Treasuries will nominally default - as tax receipts collapse with stocks, the US Gov would have to drastically cut...
I'm sorry but paper money is a ridiculous notion. Even if it were an -OK- solution over some time period, I do not trust our current handlers to manage it well.
Mises said a currency crisis always is the ultimate result of fiat money. The path is, of course, not straightforward. The events of the 70s have long run consequences.
The market is overbought, but honestly does not look that bearish.
Consolidation into next 4 weeks should provide a base for higher into year end.
We are moving into shallow decelerations in growth and inflation for 2H21, which should put a lid on yields and be a boost for Tech, Real Estate, Gold, Utilities.
Divergent lows on 1h MACD here.
We could still see lower to produce a better setup on Daily chart.
But it's pretty damn oversold here, and it's been consolidating for such a long time.
And they need silver to make solar panels, electric cars, widespread physical shortage, yada yada. No need to rehash long term thesis for Silver, just amazing how long they can...
We seem to have a bottom on day 26 of the cycle. It's looking unlikely for it to go back down and make a day 33-36 cycle low.
It makes sense this cycle sees a new all time high, since the prior cycle was extremely right translated.
Bears need to top the next cycle early in its life, so a peak in the first ~14 days of the cycle. And then hold that high as...
I was mentally looking for a crash to 20k btc and maybe 1900 eth.
But short term developments have turned out bullish. I am still open minded for a short squeeze and then crashing.
BTC and ETH charts are fragile.
Not exactly what you'd expect if something were about to crash:
A rally on rising volume.
Watch for pullbacks on low / falling volume. If selling fails to generate increased participation, expect the trend to turn back up.
Just for fun,
Forecasting SPY using some old cycles theory.
Despite the very bullish tape I'm seeing some defects underneath. However, price is price, trend is up until it's not.
But I think they fight the bear case tooth and nail, and bring out Fed bazookas.
Today's drop found support at the 50ma and created the lower trendline of a symmetrical flag.
The volume on this test is lower than prior tests of the trend at the 50ma. That is slightly bullish.
Today's low is a critical line in the sand, any further downside could break the trend for a while.
Personally I'm holding long term, no trading.
I have not posted much lately because I am busy trading. I have been focusing on bigger picture, daily & weekly charts as those have less noise.
But it is remarkable considering the moves in commodities, that gold & silver remain in consolidation. I think this is a significant opportunity.
However, these are highly manipulated markets so always be careful. ...
I rotated out of Gold sometime in Q4 to focus on Tech and Energy.
Now, I've made decent profits. It has felt all too easy in the stock market for months now. It's time to look again at deeply undervalued plays that have been forgotten.
One of my favorites is EQX. I will look for a trip to $9 or below to accumulate and accumulate big.
Can Gold test...