If you haven't been paying attention, global macro data has been HORRIBLE for months now. Bonds and gold have been signaling a massive recession coming.
KOSPI, SHCOMP, DAX all crashing. Caterpillar (CAT) now breaking down.
It's something of a miracle that the S&P and US stocks have survived this long.
Well, if IWM breaks this huge H&S down, look out below. ...
Morning weakness has extended and now this bear flag is taking shape. I would watch carefully any bounces inside this flag. If the bounces are weak, one might consider increasing shorts with a stop above the flag.
I covered my fast shorts from last week. Still holding put spreads expiring in 2 weeks, bought last week so paying nicely.
Instead of chasing the move late last week, one could have waited to see a backtest today. This can be a spot for fast positions.
It can trend toward 31 before hitting larger resistance.
I don't think it stops at resistance, because of the extremely strong gold/silver bull market. But, 31 would be a place to reduce leverage or reduce risk.
I made a bunch of money on the last run up, and then lost a bunch bag-holding it for many months.
Now that the Gold & Silver markets are alive again, an interesting rhyming of history is occurring.
Assuming we are in a Gold & Silver bull market, is this current 1-2 setup complete? Does it really matter if we are in a bull market? The current 2 certainly is a...
Target sold off hard and recently put in a bear flag. It's breaking down out of there now.
I entered short yesterday via some Sept put spreads.
This is a highly inefficient company (relative to AMZN and WMT) running into a coming recession / depression. XLY sector was a short yesterday, but I didn't really want to short AMZN, so I picked what I think is one of...
One of the core holdings in this growth-slowing environment is having a good day.
I'm long shares of VNQ that I don't really touch very often. Sometimes when I see them oversold I leverage up with calls, but I missed this recent bottom.
There was a break downward but that recovered quickly. It's now poking to the upside. I think this can be bought on any...
China stocks are getting destroyed by currency devaluation and (what I think is) the popping of this global bubble. Unlike charts of BABA and BIDU which already look very oversold (I think they go lower but it's a more difficult risk/reward setup for medium term).
Here's QD with a big wedge that's ready to break down.
Double top 9.20 is a good, wide stop level.
Nice wedge pattern on this. Although it's been in a downtrend, it weathered the past week's volatility quite well, so my guess is sellers are exhausted here in the short-medium term.
This is a $75B global pharmaceutical company, makes a bunch of important drugs, that is trading at 12 P/E and pays 3.5% dividend.
They are acquiring Celgene (CELG), a similar...
Compared to the two indices which contain DIS, DIS has held up remarkably well by holding its July 19th low.
Now both indices are pretty oversold. Even in a much more serious decline I would continue to expect DIS to hold up well and pay dividends.
I note that major events in Eurodollar futures coincide with major breakouts in Gold.
If the Fed cuts tomorrow, and they continue to express further dovishness, and the market deems it sufficiently dovish, this chart should find support at the 50ma, and by correlation could result in another big leg up in Gold.
In a bull run, it's a good buy below the 50ma.
Sometimes, it dips to the 100ma where it becomes a really good buy. That would be another 10% dip from here.
Buy some now, buy the rest later, or whatever. It really doesn't matter much in the big picture.
Any skeptics of bitcoin or gold don't understand that there is $13T of negative yielding...
This is similar to the NIO chart I just posted, except on a much larger daily timeframe.
We can see that it's basing over a support level, and moving averages compressing.
As a major bonus, analyst at Hedgeye likes it:
I will probably look...
I'm not at all bullish on the fundamentals behind NIO, its debt load, or the Chinese economy.
Which is why there's a possibility this could rally and rally hard. It has the look of a chart with simply no more sellers. From its lows it popped $1.40 from a $2.50 price. I wouldn't be surprised if it performs another 50% pop, perhaps to remind people that it...
You'd think after a 50% rally in just under 2 months, even a sound profitable company would take a breather.
On the hourly, I see it forming a H&S resistance around 258.30
Earnings tomorrow is a possible catalyst to determine a direction. I think it's mildly possible they beat their expectations (less negative earnings) based on number fudging and/or outright...
Check out this beautiful wedge about to break out.
I've been holding a substantial position for a while now. Earliest position that I still hold is from over 1.5 years ago. I've tried my best to buy the dips and today the entire position finally went green. If a gold bull market manifests, well I'd expect new highs and then some.
Holding Old Turkey.
It certainly seems and feels like KL will run straight up. That weekly chart is nothing to scoff at. Gold is breaking up higher out of a bull flag.
Sentiment is as good as it gets. Jumping "all-in" feels like a great play. KL wants to hit 50 and I should buy 100 call options to grab it. Greed is overflowing all over the precious metals sector.
The long term chart of Silver appears to be firming up and possibly breaking out as of today:
If so, the chart of Fortuna Silver can return to the highs. We can see that the "small" pop to $20 silver in 2016 sent FSM to its highs, almost ten dollars.
If the bull market is back and silver surpasses its 2016 highs, who...