scheplick

My thoughts on Tesla after earnings

NASDAQ:TSLA   TESLA INC
The earnings report was okay to me. I'm not sure I totally get the hype. I mean they did well, but nothing caught my attention and made me say - yes this is the report that send its up another 100% to a $600B valuation! I actually left the report thinking it could chop sideways for a while. But here's the thing...

People have been bearish on Tesla for the longest time and it continues to outperform everyone. So don't make any crazy bets. Don't play hero ball. Just watch it and be happy they are making great electric cars. Today one share of Tesla is equally to an ounce of gold . That's quite the decision to make :)

Going forward, the one big risk is Tesla made $420 million in regulatory credits this quarter and over $1 billion the last four quarters. What are credits? It's money given to the company from the government for not polluting. I love green energy and mother nature. But net income was $104 million. So if those credits go away... but to be fair a lot of companies get tax credits and help from the government. And in this case I do agree with more green energy and green solutions.

Just something to think about.
I work at TradingView helping to build charts, tools, and software for everyone interested in financial markets.

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Comments

I think you make fair points. Definitely something to think about
+2 Reply
@GTB112, Thanks and glad you liked it
Reply
TSLA has been selling futures credits to 'make the books' show a profit for about the last year now, what's new?

Don't get me wrong, I maxed out my position when it was sub 400, but when it broke 1500 I started exiting on the peaks and was watching it very very close with a stop loss in place. That isn't really b/c the company is bad, but the valuation is essentially stealing earnings for the next year+ and has baked in every other avenue for growth they have available (software royalties if they distribute, battery tech to license, and even arguably the transition to compete directly with uber, etc. as a service.

Again, while I agree it is a good company, it won't double from a previous ATH anytime soon and I really don't like babysitting long term investments that could collapse 30% over the weekend to ekk out that last 6% gains. Once it retests some supports and consolidates a bit, I may re-enter.
+1 Reply
scheplick oranjcrush
@oranjcrush, This is a good point:

"but the valuation is essentially stealing earnings for the next year+ and has baked in every other avenue for growth they have available (software royalties if they distribute, battery tech to license, and even arguably the transition to compete directly with uber, etc. as a service."
Reply
Good assessment. Thank you!
+1 Reply
scheplick drewby4321
@drewby4321, 🙌
Reply
Thank you.
+1 Reply
@vnnj85, Glad you liked it
Reply
Cars are just part of the revenue, their solar roofs and power walls will be soon on most of the roofs around the world. The 25 years loan payments on the system is similar to the average power bill in Florida but with the system there will be no power outage in case of a hurricane which is a tremendous plus
+1 Reply
scheplick ZoltanP
@ZoltanP, Yes I agree. Long-term plans are fantastic! But this kind of execution takes time and buying it too high is starting to factor in a lot of these things without it actually being there.
Reply
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