There is a lot going on in this chart tonight, so I am going to start with a ledger of sorts dictating/color coding everything you see. Also, fair warning this will be a long post so be prepared to do a little reading.
1. Dark blue - retracement fib for wave (A)
2. Black - Primary Count / A-B fib extension
3. Red - minor (a)-(b) fib extension
4. Turquoise - ALT count / Bull Scenario
Primary Count - This is all marked in black labels
1. This has all been an extended ABC of (A) of ((B)) of ((2)).
2. MACD thus far states this is all an a-wave of SOME magnitude. I say (A)
3. Structure and MACD are arguing (bear vs. bull) but haven't broken any laws yet. It
appears they may finally come to an agreement tomorrow whatever that may be.
I'm obviously in the bear corner.
4. This move has extended past standard fib levels, hence my surprise by the
strength/duration of this advance up. As said before though, we started out
corrective and are finishing in an impulsive fashion. This is another indicator the
whole move has been an ABC structure.
5. We should head lower for wave (B) of ((B)) in a 3-wave pattern starting tomorrow.
I have marked our (B) wave target where we will hopefully bounce to finish ((B)).
Our first pit stop on the way to (B) of ((B)) is about $190, or around the 0.382 fib
line of this move up. Then up to around $200-$205 and subsequently down
towards the box to finish (B).
ALT - This is all marked in Turquoise
1. I had to FORCE the first micro count into i.
2. I had to FORCE the next move up into wave 1
3. Look how weak that 3 of iii of ((1)) would be. People are trying to say this
ENTIRE move up from $151 is a Wave 3 of iii of ((1)) of III??? (Anyone getting a
sense of how unlikely it is this puny move up is the start of our wave III?)
4. This count dictates we're about to head lower in 3-wave structure for wave (2). It
would look much like my primary count where I am calling it (B) of ((B)). The only way
to tell the difference is how structure presents and how high price goes. The
convenient part of that is, both counts present the same buying opportunity. If you
decide to buy in the target box, should price go there, you will be positioned to profit
no matter what happens.
Problems with ALT count -
1. wave 1 very long (black (a))
2. wave 4 overlaps wave 1 endpoint
3. wave 3 very small
4. Turquoise micro count wave 3 extension not normal
There is a reason I wait for better opportunities. Yes, if I chased prices in the beginning, I could have made a bigger profit then the one I already made. However, what if price didn't push this high and it reversed causing me to take a loss? The possible entry I expect to be coming up will be right at the end of a retrace and have BOTH counts pointing up. The possible downside will be $5-$15 at most with an upside of $20-$30. That is also assuming my count is correct, but only time will tell. I think tomorrow will present many BIG clues.
2nd ALT - Not labeled on chart -- UNLIKELY BUT POSSIBLE
1. Another big jump in price will most likely cause pos div leaving only a bullish
perspective
2. We would be extending well beyond normal fib levels and would have to zoom out to
the 4HR and 1D chart for guidance.
3. For me, I would have to wait for the retrace after we tagged $240ish to buy in.
4. I would expect us to drop to around $200 after that before taking off to around $270
minimum.
MACD cannot cross the blue horizontal line or primary is bust (pos div)
OMH will likely busts primary because I don't see how price gets higher without pos div.
Regardless of if it is the bull count (1st ALT) or bear count (Primary) we should head lower next in a 3 wave move down towards $165-$177 which is the next buy zone. When it hits the next target zone, if structure is as predicted, I will buy back in for another push towards the low $200 range. I would not be surprised if we get a deep retracement towards the $150 range to set up a flat ABC for ((B)). This would also help the MACD reset more for the next wave up. That is why I will wait for structure to tell me when to buy. Once we start carving our downward move I can give more precise targets as usual.
As I Said, I believe tomorrow will be very telling and we should finally get that retrace to set up for another buy opportunity. Good luck everyone, I will be off tomorrow and will give intra day updates as they are needed. Please ask questions and if you haven't already, HIT THOSE FOLLOW/LIKE BUTTONS!!!
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
1. Dark blue - retracement fib for wave (A)
2. Black - Primary Count / A-B fib extension
3. Red - minor (a)-(b) fib extension
4. Turquoise - ALT count / Bull Scenario
Primary Count - This is all marked in black labels
1. This has all been an extended ABC of (A) of ((B)) of ((2)).
2. MACD thus far states this is all an a-wave of SOME magnitude. I say (A)
3. Structure and MACD are arguing (bear vs. bull) but haven't broken any laws yet. It
appears they may finally come to an agreement tomorrow whatever that may be.
I'm obviously in the bear corner.
4. This move has extended past standard fib levels, hence my surprise by the
strength/duration of this advance up. As said before though, we started out
corrective and are finishing in an impulsive fashion. This is another indicator the
whole move has been an ABC structure.
5. We should head lower for wave (B) of ((B)) in a 3-wave pattern starting tomorrow.
I have marked our (B) wave target where we will hopefully bounce to finish ((B)).
Our first pit stop on the way to (B) of ((B)) is about $190, or around the 0.382 fib
line of this move up. Then up to around $200-$205 and subsequently down
towards the box to finish (B).
ALT - This is all marked in Turquoise
1. I had to FORCE the first micro count into i.
2. I had to FORCE the next move up into wave 1
3. Look how weak that 3 of iii of ((1)) would be. People are trying to say this
ENTIRE move up from $151 is a Wave 3 of iii of ((1)) of III??? (Anyone getting a
sense of how unlikely it is this puny move up is the start of our wave III?)
4. This count dictates we're about to head lower in 3-wave structure for wave (2). It
would look much like my primary count where I am calling it (B) of ((B)). The only way
to tell the difference is how structure presents and how high price goes. The
convenient part of that is, both counts present the same buying opportunity. If you
decide to buy in the target box, should price go there, you will be positioned to profit
no matter what happens.
Problems with ALT count -
1. wave 1 very long (black (a))
2. wave 4 overlaps wave 1 endpoint
3. wave 3 very small
4. Turquoise micro count wave 3 extension not normal
There is a reason I wait for better opportunities. Yes, if I chased prices in the beginning, I could have made a bigger profit then the one I already made. However, what if price didn't push this high and it reversed causing me to take a loss? The possible entry I expect to be coming up will be right at the end of a retrace and have BOTH counts pointing up. The possible downside will be $5-$15 at most with an upside of $20-$30. That is also assuming my count is correct, but only time will tell. I think tomorrow will present many BIG clues.
2nd ALT - Not labeled on chart -- UNLIKELY BUT POSSIBLE
1. Another big jump in price will most likely cause pos div leaving only a bullish
perspective
2. We would be extending well beyond normal fib levels and would have to zoom out to
the 4HR and 1D chart for guidance.
3. For me, I would have to wait for the retrace after we tagged $240ish to buy in.
4. I would expect us to drop to around $200 after that before taking off to around $270
minimum.
MACD cannot cross the blue horizontal line or primary is bust (pos div)
OMH will likely busts primary because I don't see how price gets higher without pos div.
Regardless of if it is the bull count (1st ALT) or bear count (Primary) we should head lower next in a 3 wave move down towards $165-$177 which is the next buy zone. When it hits the next target zone, if structure is as predicted, I will buy back in for another push towards the low $200 range. I would not be surprised if we get a deep retracement towards the $150 range to set up a flat ABC for ((B)). This would also help the MACD reset more for the next wave up. That is why I will wait for structure to tell me when to buy. Once we start carving our downward move I can give more precise targets as usual.
As I Said, I believe tomorrow will be very telling and we should finally get that retrace to set up for another buy opportunity. Good luck everyone, I will be off tomorrow and will give intra day updates as they are needed. Please ask questions and if you haven't already, HIT THOSE FOLLOW/LIKE BUTTONS!!!
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Comment:
Tesla opened in pre market, according to tradingview, at $201 and then jumped by $14 in the first minute. Talk about a curve ball, we have hit OMH and still on neg divergence thus far. The question I have tonask is what was this open about? Is it a precursor to what's coming next? Today will be interesting, and as I said before, I'm on the sidelines for this one
Comment:
What the heck is that big green bar?? Why did it do that pre market? Is it a glitch or real price action? Also, note the MACD. Things to keep in mind this a.m
What the heck is that big green bar?? Why did it do that pre market? Is it a glitch or real price action? Also, note the MACD. Things to keep in mind this a.m
Comment:
Price hit fib resistance @ $221 and is consolidating with MACD starting to lower again. Somehow, we are still on neg. div...idk how, but we are.
Comment:
Sorry I didn't post an update for today. Yesterday ended up being an exhausting day. We have started retracing to the downside it appears. Once we have some more price action I will make a post with updated targets
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Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
