If TSLA enters the Downtrend Confirmation Zone ( Lower Low), its trend is confirmed with two different Technical Analysis models.
1. Wycoff: Current indicators are that its still in the distribution phase.
2. Elliot Waves. It has finished it's wave pullback and continues with its downtrend.
Stochastic and Strength indicators point to a continuation of the downtrend when seen from a longer time frame.
When considering the Fundamentals (and Economic factors) we have the following headwinds:
1. Supply chain issues with the batteries will persist
2. Potential consumers are scared of an incoming recession, and will refrain from making big ticket item purchases.
3. Electrical supply issues: In the US there are issues with Electricity production, given that Lake Mead and Lake Powell and therefore the Hoover Dam is at precariously low levels.
4. A bad summer is only going to make energy demands skewed.
5. Electricity production using Coal and Natural Gas is heavily compromised.
6. Nuclear Power takes a long time to implement, so do not expect a sudden increase in supply sources.
7. More and more countries are counting on Hydrogen to solve mass transit issues. As we move towards alternative fuel sources, and with more public institutions betting on H2 as a fuel source, the price of H2 will start to decrease, making it a viable source of fuel for personal mobility as well. This would mean that EVs will have a serious competition from other Fuel driven mobility solutions.
8. Tesla is facing increasing competition from other EV manufacturers.
Agreed that TSLA is not just an EV manufacturer, but also a Energy Supplier, Battery Solutions supplier, and has potential to launch additional business lines that will take advantage of their current technology portfolio, it still has to operate within the current socio-political-economic paradigm. In this paradigm, we are going to face increasing issues with Fuel, Food and Energy availability.
Expect TSLA to have a tough weeks/months ahead.
If you have comments or questions, feel free to address them via the comments section or send me a DM.
Cheers:
The Rational Investor.
1. Wycoff: Current indicators are that its still in the distribution phase.
2. Elliot Waves. It has finished it's wave pullback and continues with its downtrend.
Stochastic and Strength indicators point to a continuation of the downtrend when seen from a longer time frame.
When considering the Fundamentals (and Economic factors) we have the following headwinds:
1. Supply chain issues with the batteries will persist
2. Potential consumers are scared of an incoming recession, and will refrain from making big ticket item purchases.
3. Electrical supply issues: In the US there are issues with Electricity production, given that Lake Mead and Lake Powell and therefore the Hoover Dam is at precariously low levels.
4. A bad summer is only going to make energy demands skewed.
5. Electricity production using Coal and Natural Gas is heavily compromised.
6. Nuclear Power takes a long time to implement, so do not expect a sudden increase in supply sources.
7. More and more countries are counting on Hydrogen to solve mass transit issues. As we move towards alternative fuel sources, and with more public institutions betting on H2 as a fuel source, the price of H2 will start to decrease, making it a viable source of fuel for personal mobility as well. This would mean that EVs will have a serious competition from other Fuel driven mobility solutions.
8. Tesla is facing increasing competition from other EV manufacturers.
Agreed that TSLA is not just an EV manufacturer, but also a Energy Supplier, Battery Solutions supplier, and has potential to launch additional business lines that will take advantage of their current technology portfolio, it still has to operate within the current socio-political-economic paradigm. In this paradigm, we are going to face increasing issues with Fuel, Food and Energy availability.
Expect TSLA to have a tough weeks/months ahead.
If you have comments or questions, feel free to address them via the comments section or send me a DM.
Cheers:
The Rational Investor.
