Using a Gann Fan and Gann Box to predict $2,000 on Jun 21, 2022
This post is a follow up from my post on Dec 20. I am humbly submitting it for your review. In this chart I use three Gann boxes, one Gann fan, one reverse Fibonacci retracement box and numerous trend lines. The predictions are as follows - $1,433 on Feb 22 and $1,975 on Jun 21.
How did I arrive here?
First off, Telsa created a base from Jan 25 - Oct 21 (188 trading days over 269 days). It was during this initial decline starting Jan 25 that the Gann geometry was created. I drew a Gann box and Fibonacci retracement box over this period and another one over the uptrend from $545 to $895. Please look at these very closely, especially the date Aug 5 where the price of TSLA hits the Gann 0.5 / 0.5 squarely on the nose. If you do not use Gann, give it a try. Gann uses price and time. Most importantly, TIME.
Tesla broke out on Oct 21 on big volume after reaching the all time high set on Jan 25 and completing the 188 day base (Wyckoff Accumulation Base) - $895. But unfortunately during the breakout, the huge gap was created. That gap was destined to be closed. And it took 41 trading days to close it. But those 41 trading days are incredibly important to predicting the future price because it left us with 41 data points of price and time. So, I started with a Gann Fan, anchoring the 0/0 at the breakout on Oct 21 at 895. And then moved the fan around and around until I found the 1/8, 1/4 covering the initial pop to 1245, and finally 1/1 trendline sneaking through the middle touching the candles on Dec 2,3. Once I had the fan set, I drew the new Gann box according to matching the 0.25 vertical to a significant change in trend direction, yesterday Dec 21. Then expand the Gann box out until the end. It ends at $1,975 on June 21. I am also assuming the 1/1 trendline from last summer's base becomes the 2/1 trendline for the new box.
If you like Elliot Wave, then I can see a Wave 1 having been created from Oct 21 - Nov 4 (895-1245) and then the ABC back down to yesterday. So we are starting a long Wave 3 now and there will be 5 waves inside of it. Maybe these Gann timeframes can help with direction change.
If you like drawing wedges and triangles, then turn on "angles" in the Gann box and you will have all of the wedges, triangles, trapezoids and parallelograms you can imagine.
If you like drawing Fibonacci retracement over everything, then I think we need to put the retracement tools back in the tool box and get out the extension tools. We are in a breakout.
Just my thoughts. I did go long here on Dec 21. I put my money where my mouth is. This is not financial advice, just my interpretation of market geometry. Do your own due diligence. I welcome all comments, concerns and angry letters. I am on Trading View to learn and I publish these posts to hold myself accountable to my analysis. Best of luck and happy holidays.
How did I arrive here?
First off, Telsa created a base from Jan 25 - Oct 21 (188 trading days over 269 days). It was during this initial decline starting Jan 25 that the Gann geometry was created. I drew a Gann box and Fibonacci retracement box over this period and another one over the uptrend from $545 to $895. Please look at these very closely, especially the date Aug 5 where the price of TSLA hits the Gann 0.5 / 0.5 squarely on the nose. If you do not use Gann, give it a try. Gann uses price and time. Most importantly, TIME.
Tesla broke out on Oct 21 on big volume after reaching the all time high set on Jan 25 and completing the 188 day base (Wyckoff Accumulation Base) - $895. But unfortunately during the breakout, the huge gap was created. That gap was destined to be closed. And it took 41 trading days to close it. But those 41 trading days are incredibly important to predicting the future price because it left us with 41 data points of price and time. So, I started with a Gann Fan, anchoring the 0/0 at the breakout on Oct 21 at 895. And then moved the fan around and around until I found the 1/8, 1/4 covering the initial pop to 1245, and finally 1/1 trendline sneaking through the middle touching the candles on Dec 2,3. Once I had the fan set, I drew the new Gann box according to matching the 0.25 vertical to a significant change in trend direction, yesterday Dec 21. Then expand the Gann box out until the end. It ends at $1,975 on June 21. I am also assuming the 1/1 trendline from last summer's base becomes the 2/1 trendline for the new box.
If you like Elliot Wave, then I can see a Wave 1 having been created from Oct 21 - Nov 4 (895-1245) and then the ABC back down to yesterday. So we are starting a long Wave 3 now and there will be 5 waves inside of it. Maybe these Gann timeframes can help with direction change.
If you like drawing wedges and triangles, then turn on "angles" in the Gann box and you will have all of the wedges, triangles, trapezoids and parallelograms you can imagine.
If you like drawing Fibonacci retracement over everything, then I think we need to put the retracement tools back in the tool box and get out the extension tools. We are in a breakout.
Just my thoughts. I did go long here on Dec 21. I put my money where my mouth is. This is not financial advice, just my interpretation of market geometry. Do your own due diligence. I welcome all comments, concerns and angry letters. I am on Trading View to learn and I publish these posts to hold myself accountable to my analysis. Best of luck and happy holidays.
Comment:
Beautiful price action today. TSLA price moved right through the 2/1 Gann extension (also now the 50dma) and settled right on the 0.618 Gann extension trend line. If you are wondering why TSLA has moved up so quickly in the last few days, it is because we were not supposed to be down this low right now. Market movers and computers worked overtime to send the price down to close that gap. If my theory is correct, the new Gann 1/1 trendline puts the fair valued price at 1,181 today and the price will race to catch up. Happy Holidays!
Comment:
Look how cute today's candle looks jammed in that little corner of the trendlines. This box might be right, but I have actually been working with a slightly different version of the box this week and it looks good too. That's the trouble with these boxes. With four points of interest made daily in price (high, low, open and close) there are so many connections that look so good. But regardless, TSLA looks good here and I will continue noodling the box until I find something that looks right. Some cool points of contact on the box from the base are how the 20dma intersects the 0.75 Gann and how the 50dma intersects the 0.618. That's spooky.
Comment:
Wow. What a day! What a great company. These huge candles look unreal, but over time they too will look small as the price continues to move up. I still like this Gann box even though it might be slightly off. I am happy I trusted the charts, tuned out the noise in the media and loaded up at $900 when the gap was closed. Best of luck to all TSLA investors.
Comment:
Huge plunge in the Nasdaq today followed by a sharp rebound. TSLA finishing up 3% Wow. This isn't the exact Gann box I am using right now, but it still looks ok. My new one is less steep and more conservative.