Dreams of a bright future and their consequences

Financial markets yesterday continued to dream of a bright future under the influence of magic pills news. The effect was complex: from the decline in the VIX index and the growth of stock markets, ending with the growth of commodity markets and a decline of the dollar.

The latter is under strong pressure, as a result the Dollar Index moved below the base support of 96, which opens the way for a further decline. Moreover, the euro, pound, Australian dollar and a number of other currencies simultaneously break important levels, which again opens the way for them to further growth against the US dollar.

Since we do not share the optimism prevailing in the markets, simply because the reason for the growth is expectations, not facts, we are not in a hurry to sell the dollar, but the recommendation to buy it has been withdrawn.

The earnings season in the US is going pretty well. That is, in most cases, the main reason for joy is the exceeding of analysts' forecasts, and not the actual growth of the financial performance of companies, but this is enough for positive-minded markets.

Today in this regard will be extremely interesting, because of reports from Microsoft and Tesla. Both stocks are extremely overvalued (although even an overpriced company like Microsoft looks relatively undervalued compared to Tesla), so it will be interesting to see if they what they have got and markets reaction.

Oil yesterday also became hostage to a general wave of rising risk sentiments in financial markets and was able to break through key resistance. True, at the end of the day, buyers' sentiment was spoiled by data on US oil stocks from the API, which showed a sharp increase in reserves (by 7.54 million barrels). However, today's official data may bring them back into good spirits. Or not, if the numbers from the API will be confirmed.