TSX: Slow Decline; CDN Dollar To Rise Noticeably through 2020
As we continue to slowly tip-toe in a global recession likely sometime in 2020, with a bear market in the stock market set to happen at anytime within the next year, the TSX will only follow suit. As always, nothing goes up and down in a linear straight line. There will always be fake outs for bulls and bears, but the overall trend of markets around the world will be in the decline - even if we re-test ATHs at some point.
The TSX. compared to the USA indice counterparts are typically delayed by 3-6 months from troughing out, and losses are typically muted somewhat (comparatively speaking).
As history takes us back to 2008, the USA typically sets the bar between Canada and the USA for cutting interest rates. Because the USA cuts rates typically 2-4 quarters before Canada, usually the DXY falls, while the CXY rises. I would not be surprised before the end of Q1 2020 if the Canadian Dollar is back near 90 cents US. By Q4 2020 or Q1 2021 the CXY may be back on par and potentially worth more (again, temporarily) before falling in 2022.
As I have said in many of my ideas: long gold, long silver and buy and hold weed stocks (for now) as they are a sector guaranteed to rebound in the near-term. Which ones do I recommend? CWEB, VGW and Planet 13 for direct players; ENW and GRWG for auxiliary players. Always choose your entries wisely and never chase break-outs; wait for pullbacks.
It is important to hedge accordingly. The overall market has overextended and I would refrain from investing in the big stocks in the Dow, SP500 and Nas100. Pick your entries accordingly and I recommend 50-60% of your portfolio should encompass gold and silver with an additional 20% in weed/weed auxiliaries and 20% held for any potential entries on stocks set to rebound or for shorting leveraged funds like the HUV and TVIX.
- zSplit
The TSX. compared to the USA indice counterparts are typically delayed by 3-6 months from troughing out, and losses are typically muted somewhat (comparatively speaking).
As history takes us back to 2008, the USA typically sets the bar between Canada and the USA for cutting interest rates. Because the USA cuts rates typically 2-4 quarters before Canada, usually the DXY falls, while the CXY rises. I would not be surprised before the end of Q1 2020 if the Canadian Dollar is back near 90 cents US. By Q4 2020 or Q1 2021 the CXY may be back on par and potentially worth more (again, temporarily) before falling in 2022.
As I have said in many of my ideas: long gold, long silver and buy and hold weed stocks (for now) as they are a sector guaranteed to rebound in the near-term. Which ones do I recommend? CWEB, VGW and Planet 13 for direct players; ENW and GRWG for auxiliary players. Always choose your entries wisely and never chase break-outs; wait for pullbacks.
It is important to hedge accordingly. The overall market has overextended and I would refrain from investing in the big stocks in the Dow, SP500 and Nas100. Pick your entries accordingly and I recommend 50-60% of your portfolio should encompass gold and silver with an additional 20% in weed/weed auxiliaries and 20% held for any potential entries on stocks set to rebound or for shorting leveraged funds like the HUV and TVIX.
- zSplit
