TVIX: Start Stock Piling at 15.00 or Less..The WORST is Coming
With geopolitical issues starting to pop-up all around us in contingent with essentially a soon-to-be worldwide humanitarian crisis (migrants) and massive monetary policy easing, I believe the stock market is on its last hooray before likely a massive recession sometime in late 2020. Typically, crashes begin 4-6 months before they actually "show-up" in unemployment numbers and more "average person" data. For this reason, that is why people who use unemployment numbers as a means for "no recession is coming" has 0 credibility and does not understand how economic data works.
A lot of people like to talk about "GDP" numbers - another fake statistic. GDP is over 65% consumer spending orientated with over 18% government spending. Governments around the world are spending more now than ever before (i.e. massive US debt). Consumers with the massive amount of debt are spending more money than virtually ever before. BUT there is a difference between a "healthy consumer" and a "spending consumer". Therefore, GDP, just like unemployment numbers are lagging indicators by at-least a factor of 6 months.
I invite people to go back to 2007-2008 when many many people (including Larry Kudlow and the Federal Reserve) were propping up the eventual 08/09 crash would never happen and everything would be rosey and dandy. EXCEPT, then we had 5.5% interest as leverage, less geopolitical issues around the world, a market that isn't nearly as overextended as it is now, and treasuries that were not virtually negative in 3/4 of the world. This will be Part 2 of the 08/09 recession and Part 2 of a Great Depression from the 30s.
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One of my main thesis' is that I believe the SP will likely short squeeze somewhere in the 3000-3100 range off the backs of more cheap money and fiat currency printing (rate cuts) as a last ditch effort to drive the market higher, in which, and inevitably, fail and trap bulls tremendously. As we can see now, SP is not much off the number of 3000, however, I am not convinced we will get over 3000 again unless Powell cuts in September. If he does, I believe we can short squeeze higher.
The problem is, Powell only has about 2% of leverage left, and once thats gone, its game-over. I believe he will be back down to 0 within the next 6-8 months but at some point (and I believe that to be September/October), whether he cuts rates, eventually the market will no longer respond. Around the world, interest rates are negative, and the ECB is likely to enter further QE.
Key Points
- Recent USA conflict with Taliban/Afghanistan
- ECB likely to enter QE in mid September
- Europe humanitarian crisis from massive swaths of migrants
- Many European nations close to retraction
- USA/China trade likely to never be solved and will remain tit-for-tat as a last ditch effort to boost the USA/Chinese stock markets
- Fiat currencies will lose their value tremendously as a last and final ditch effort to prop-up stock markets (overextended bubble)
- No recession in over 10 years
- Gold will surge over 3000 and Silver over 100.00USD/oz by 2022 and will continue to remain high (or higher) through 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025
Timing
- My thesis supports a world-wide and global major recession in late 2020, although in terms of a stock market crashing I believe we can expect a correction in 2019 or Q1 2020, with a major crash in late 2020 (when interest is at ~0.25%)
- I believe Trump will likely lose the 2020 election which will send the stock market lower based on the premonition. While recessions are a natural cyclical process - its not to say it will be Trumps fault - but rather, he will simply be the one in office when it happens
TVIX Target
- I believe in the near-term (Sept-Dec) we can expect TVIX to bounce back and forth with likely TPs around the 30.00 range. I see any dip at this point in the market as an opportunity to stock-pile TVIX.
- I believe by early 2020 TVIX could be flirting with values seen in Dec of 2018.
- I believe by late 2020 TVIX will be well over 100.00.
Final Points
- People love drawing straight lines that fail to connect with anything feasible to try to be perpetually bullish in this market. There is no question that anyone who completely understands world-wide monetary policy and geopolitics knows that within the next ~2 years we will not only enter a major recession, but rather, a world-wide currency crisis which will lead to a depression.
- I advise no one to be long in this market on equities. Swing trade? Yes if you're experienced. Use every top high near 3000 or above to sell your longs and buy shorts dirt cheap. Start stockpiling Gold and Silver on EVER possible dip and correction. Once they reach and surpass their old highs in 2020, it will be game-over and they will high for a very long time.
2020 will be a very shocking time for many. Money will be lost and there will be massive geopolitical, social and monetary issues. Be prepared and don't be foolish and throw your money away in longs in equities. None of what I have stated is hyperbole or sensationalism. I advise people to do your own research and look back in history.
zSplit
A lot of people like to talk about "GDP" numbers - another fake statistic. GDP is over 65% consumer spending orientated with over 18% government spending. Governments around the world are spending more now than ever before (i.e. massive US debt). Consumers with the massive amount of debt are spending more money than virtually ever before. BUT there is a difference between a "healthy consumer" and a "spending consumer". Therefore, GDP, just like unemployment numbers are lagging indicators by at-least a factor of 6 months.
I invite people to go back to 2007-2008 when many many people (including Larry Kudlow and the Federal Reserve) were propping up the eventual 08/09 crash would never happen and everything would be rosey and dandy. EXCEPT, then we had 5.5% interest as leverage, less geopolitical issues around the world, a market that isn't nearly as overextended as it is now, and treasuries that were not virtually negative in 3/4 of the world. This will be Part 2 of the 08/09 recession and Part 2 of a Great Depression from the 30s.
--
One of my main thesis' is that I believe the SP will likely short squeeze somewhere in the 3000-3100 range off the backs of more cheap money and fiat currency printing (rate cuts) as a last ditch effort to drive the market higher, in which, and inevitably, fail and trap bulls tremendously. As we can see now, SP is not much off the number of 3000, however, I am not convinced we will get over 3000 again unless Powell cuts in September. If he does, I believe we can short squeeze higher.
The problem is, Powell only has about 2% of leverage left, and once thats gone, its game-over. I believe he will be back down to 0 within the next 6-8 months but at some point (and I believe that to be September/October), whether he cuts rates, eventually the market will no longer respond. Around the world, interest rates are negative, and the ECB is likely to enter further QE.
Key Points
- Recent USA conflict with Taliban/Afghanistan
- ECB likely to enter QE in mid September
- Europe humanitarian crisis from massive swaths of migrants
- Many European nations close to retraction
- USA/China trade likely to never be solved and will remain tit-for-tat as a last ditch effort to boost the USA/Chinese stock markets
- Fiat currencies will lose their value tremendously as a last and final ditch effort to prop-up stock markets (overextended bubble)
- No recession in over 10 years
- Gold will surge over 3000 and Silver over 100.00USD/oz by 2022 and will continue to remain high (or higher) through 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025
Timing
- My thesis supports a world-wide and global major recession in late 2020, although in terms of a stock market crashing I believe we can expect a correction in 2019 or Q1 2020, with a major crash in late 2020 (when interest is at ~0.25%)
- I believe Trump will likely lose the 2020 election which will send the stock market lower based on the premonition. While recessions are a natural cyclical process - its not to say it will be Trumps fault - but rather, he will simply be the one in office when it happens
TVIX Target
- I believe in the near-term (Sept-Dec) we can expect TVIX to bounce back and forth with likely TPs around the 30.00 range. I see any dip at this point in the market as an opportunity to stock-pile TVIX.
- I believe by early 2020 TVIX could be flirting with values seen in Dec of 2018.
- I believe by late 2020 TVIX will be well over 100.00.
Final Points
- People love drawing straight lines that fail to connect with anything feasible to try to be perpetually bullish in this market. There is no question that anyone who completely understands world-wide monetary policy and geopolitics knows that within the next ~2 years we will not only enter a major recession, but rather, a world-wide currency crisis which will lead to a depression.
- I advise no one to be long in this market on equities. Swing trade? Yes if you're experienced. Use every top high near 3000 or above to sell your longs and buy shorts dirt cheap. Start stockpiling Gold and Silver on EVER possible dip and correction. Once they reach and surpass their old highs in 2020, it will be game-over and they will high for a very long time.
2020 will be a very shocking time for many. Money will be lost and there will be massive geopolitical, social and monetary issues. Be prepared and don't be foolish and throw your money away in longs in equities. None of what I have stated is hyperbole or sensationalism. I advise people to do your own research and look back in history.
zSplit