The between pricing of oil on an international vs. US domestic bases illustrates quite well the geopolitical changes that have occurred in the oil-producing theaters, not only from disruption of supply in the middle east - likely causing the shift fron under-to-above parity (purple line) around 2009, as well as major US domestic advances in shale oil productions, which has maintained an advantageous spread in US oil prices against that of international sources.
However, with a noted decline in world-wide consumptions (e.g.: China has halved its vessel imports over the past last month; euphemistic reference to diffuse sovereign negative ; demographic-driven shifts in consumption habits; ... etc.) combined by production-dependent economies feeling obligated to continually supply and swell storage reservoire just to keep their industry afloat at the global level has all worked to tilt the supply side of this commodity in excess of demand.
While price of oil is expected to remain low based on the predictive analysis and forecasting model (see linked analyses under "Link To Related Ideas"), the of UK oil versus US oil is also expected to take on a sub-parity destiny.
-- Market Geometries, Fibonacci And Patterns:
Historically, price rose to satisfy a Scott Carney's geometry based on a X-A axis from late 1990 to early 1991, completing at a significant XA x 1.414-Fib = Point-D.
Following a significant decline in the order of a 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci order, price oscillated back up in an W-X-Y-XX-Z pattern.
-- Predictive Analysis And Forecasting Model:
At this point, the predictive/forecasting model sees the following target as a probable top, defined as:
- TG-Hi = 1.22 - 20 FEB 2015.
If and once price rises to that level, model expects a significant reversal in line with a speculated reversed W-X-Y-XX-X (in blue) with a proposed 1.618-Fibonacci extension as a probable target, values at 0.92 in terms.
is expected to return to sub-parity level. Predictive/forecasting model sees nearing of a top, and combined analysis with Fibonacci and suggests a floor at 0.92.
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
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$UKOIL vs $USOIL fell as forecast toward 0.92 rel. strength; Implies $brent < $WTI strength:
Rel. strength btw $UKOIL vs. $USOIL continues to pull to 0.92 target:
@tradingview #ukoil #usoil $brent $WTI
$UKOIL vs $USOIL chart completes symmetry around target. Break < 1.18 opens floor to bearish target: