4xForecaster
Short

$Brent vs. $WTI Nears Top | $UKOil $USOil #oil #crudeoil #wtic

Friends,


GEOPOLITICAL SHIFTS:

The relative strength between pricing of oil             on an international vs. US domestic bases illustrates quite well the geopolitical changes that have occurred in the oil-producing theaters, not only from disruption of supply in the middle east - likely causing the shift fron under-to-above parity (purple line) around 2009, as well as major US domestic advances in shale oil             productions, which has maintained an advantageous spread in US oil             prices against that of international sources.

However, with a noted decline in world-wide consumptions (e.g.: China has halved its vessel imports over the past last month; euphemistic reference to diffuse sovereign negative inflation ; demographic-driven shifts in consumption habits; ... etc.) combined by production-dependent economies feeling obligated to continually supply and swell storage reservoire just to keep their industry afloat at the global level has all worked to tilt the supply side of this commodity in excess of demand.

While price of oil             is expected to remain low based on the predictive analysis and forecasting model (see linked analyses under "Link To Related Ideas"), the relative strength of UK oil             versus US oil             is also expected to take on a sub-parity destiny.


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

-- Market Geometries, Fibonacci And Elliott Wave Patterns:

Historically, price rose to satisfy a Scott Carney's Bearish Butterfly geometry based on a X-A axis from late 1990 to early 1991, completing at a significant XA x 1.414-Fib = Point-D.

Following a significant decline in the order of a 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci order, price oscillated back up in an Elliott Wave W-X-Y-XX-Z pattern.


-- Predictive Analysis And Forecasting Model:

At this point, the predictive/forecasting model sees the following bullish target as a probable top, defined as:

- TG-Hi = 1.22 - 20 FEB 2015.

If and once price rises to that level, model expects a significant reversal in line with a speculated reversed Elliott Wave W-X-Y-XX-X (in blue) with a proposed 1.618-Fibonacci extension as a probable target, values at 0.92 in relative strength terms.


OVERALL:

Relative strength is expected to return to sub-parity level. Predictive/forecasting model sees nearing of a top, and combined analysis with Fibonacci and Elliott Wave suggests a floor at 0.92.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colordo - USA


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Twitter:
@4xForecaster

Linked-In:
David Alcindor
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23 FEB 2015 - update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
-----------
$UKOIL / $USOIL Chart: Rising as forecast from 1.18 rel. strength to 1.19; 1.22 target intact:

snapshot


@tradingview $brent
-----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
26 FEB 2015 - update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$UKOIL vs $USOIL: 1.22 tgt remains intact; Expect rel. strength to reverse to parity line:

snapshot


@tradingview #oilandgas
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
03 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$UKOIL vs $USOIL chart completes symmetry around target. Break < 1.18 opens floor to bearish target:

snapshot


@tradingview
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
24 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
Rel. strength btw $UKOIL vs. $USOIL continues to pull to 0.92 target:

chart
snapshot


@tradingview #ukoil #usoil $brent $WTI
---------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
02 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$UKOIL vs $USOIL fell as forecast toward 0.92 rel. strength; Implies $brent < $WTI strength:

snapshot


@tradingview #oil
-----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
17 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USOIL hit quant. target at 56.79; Expecting further decline as shown:

snapshot


#oilandgas $WTI #wtic $UKOil #brent $Brent
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snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
21 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$UKOIL vs $USOIL still falling from target reversal level; Chart still eyeing 0.92 as support of relative strength:

snapshot

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snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
15 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$UKOIL continues to rise to 38.2 #fibonacci mark, as forecast; Bearish Model sees limited upside:

snapshot


$brent #crudeoil
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
02 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$UKOIL remains subdued < 38.2 #fibonacci; Predictive Model target pending at 39.15:

snapshot


#ukoil $brent #oilandgas $USD
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
10 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
Reply
10 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$UKOIL remains under bearish pressure; Predictive/Forecasting Model still eyeing 39.15:

snapshot


$Brent #brent #oil #ukoil
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
18 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$UKOIL vs. $USOIL rel. strength chart continues to fall as forecast:

snapshot


$Brent $WTI #crudeoil #oilandgas #oilprices
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
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