Friends,
GEOPOLITICAL SHIFTS:
The relative strength between pricing of oil on an international vs. US domestic bases illustrates quite well the geopolitical changes that have occurred in the oil-producing theaters, not only from disruption of supply in the middle east - likely causing the shift fron under-to-above parity (purple line) around 2009, as well as major US domestic advances in shale oil productions, which has maintained an advantageous spread in US oil prices against that of international sources.
However, with a noted decline in world-wide consumptions (e.g.: China has halved its vessel imports over the past last month; euphemistic reference to diffuse sovereign negative inflation; demographic-driven shifts in consumption habits; ... etc.) combined by production-dependent economies feeling obligated to continually supply and swell storage reservoire just to keep their industry afloat at the global level has all worked to tilt the supply side of this commodity in excess of demand.
While price of oil is expected to remain low based on the predictive analysis and forecasting model (see linked analyses under "Link To Related Ideas"), the relative strength of UK oil versus US oil is also expected to take on a sub-parity destiny.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
-- Market Geometries, Fibonacci And Elliott Wave Patterns:
Historically, price rose to satisfy a Scott Carney's Bearish Butterfly geometry based on a X-A axis from late 1990 to early 1991, completing at a significant XA x 1.414-Fib = Point-D.
Following a significant decline in the order of a 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci order, price oscillated back up in an Elliott Wave W-X-Y-XX-Z pattern.
-- Predictive Analysis And Forecasting Model:
At this point, the predictive/forecasting model sees the following bullish target as a probable top, defined as:
- TG-Hi = 1.22 - 20 FEB 2015.
If and once price rises to that level, model expects a significant reversal in line with a speculated reversed Elliott Wave W-X-Y-XX-X (in blue) with a proposed 1.618-Fibonacci extension as a probable target, values at 0.92 in relative strength terms.
OVERALL:
Relative strength is expected to return to sub-parity level. Predictive/forecasting model sees nearing of a top, and combined analysis with Fibonacci and Elliott Wave suggests a floor at 0.92.
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colordo - USA
-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster
Linked-In:
David Alcindor
-----
.
GEOPOLITICAL SHIFTS:
The relative strength between pricing of oil on an international vs. US domestic bases illustrates quite well the geopolitical changes that have occurred in the oil-producing theaters, not only from disruption of supply in the middle east - likely causing the shift fron under-to-above parity (purple line) around 2009, as well as major US domestic advances in shale oil productions, which has maintained an advantageous spread in US oil prices against that of international sources.
However, with a noted decline in world-wide consumptions (e.g.: China has halved its vessel imports over the past last month; euphemistic reference to diffuse sovereign negative inflation; demographic-driven shifts in consumption habits; ... etc.) combined by production-dependent economies feeling obligated to continually supply and swell storage reservoire just to keep their industry afloat at the global level has all worked to tilt the supply side of this commodity in excess of demand.
While price of oil is expected to remain low based on the predictive analysis and forecasting model (see linked analyses under "Link To Related Ideas"), the relative strength of UK oil versus US oil is also expected to take on a sub-parity destiny.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
-- Market Geometries, Fibonacci And Elliott Wave Patterns:
Historically, price rose to satisfy a Scott Carney's Bearish Butterfly geometry based on a X-A axis from late 1990 to early 1991, completing at a significant XA x 1.414-Fib = Point-D.
Following a significant decline in the order of a 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci order, price oscillated back up in an Elliott Wave W-X-Y-XX-Z pattern.
-- Predictive Analysis And Forecasting Model:
At this point, the predictive/forecasting model sees the following bullish target as a probable top, defined as:
- TG-Hi = 1.22 - 20 FEB 2015.
If and once price rises to that level, model expects a significant reversal in line with a speculated reversed Elliott Wave W-X-Y-XX-X (in blue) with a proposed 1.618-Fibonacci extension as a probable target, values at 0.92 in relative strength terms.
OVERALL:
Relative strength is expected to return to sub-parity level. Predictive/forecasting model sees nearing of a top, and combined analysis with Fibonacci and Elliott Wave suggests a floor at 0.92.
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colordo - USA
-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster
Linked-In:
David Alcindor
-----
.
