Predictive/forecasting model suggests a limited upside with a potential retracement target and cap as follows:
1 - TG-Hi = 56.79 - 04 FEB 2015, representing a low-probability, high-reversibility target
2 - 60.75 -- 04 FEB 2015, representing a "terminal velocity" capping value.
The taut value in at 4.8489 corresponded to the recent nadir in price at 43.56. At this point, one would expect a recoiling of back to its 30-line. Were to to occur, there would not necessarily be a proportionate range traveled by price, as bears are likely to continue weighing on price action in a way that may correspond to the Model's defined target overhead.
In fact, a higher low in value would be sufficient to throw price to a lower-low value, at a level that would correspond to the model's target-low at 21.02 - This nominal target carries a low-probability attainment, but high-reversibility potential, if and once reached.
This overall price action is similarly anticipated in the $Brent's chart, posted recently with its own target - See analysis/forecast here:
It now seems quite a distant past when last year, I offered this forecast off of a Wave:
$USOil is caught within a impulse, given a probable respite in the form of a consolidation. Model anticipates a capped reaction to levels defined in the chart, with a lingering bias until the vicinity of 21.02 is reached - At which point, it will be time to re-evaluate the true reversibility nature of this nominal target.
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
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$UKOil versus $USOil - Relative strength chart continues towards the 0.92 forecast:
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)
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$USOIL likely capped at 0.786 #fibonacci reciprocal, lining up with forecast:
@tradingview $WTI #WTIC #oilandgas
$USOIL hit 49.29 target; Reversed into a probable 49.79 projection top:
@tradingview #usoil #oilandgas $WTI #wtic
$UKOIL vs $USOIL chart completes symmetry around target. Break < 1.18 opens floor to bearish target:
$USOIL carves out new low; 43.56 floor breached; Opens to 21.02 Target:
@tradingview $WTI #oilandgas #oil #usoil
Just wondering how your bearish forecast fits with your bullish forecast on xxxUSD pairs?
It makes sense to me that a weak dollar would equal a higher oil price. I understand that's not always the way it works.
I'm still on the fence as to where we go from here, but have bullish trades open on everything against the dollar short term. Tomorrows OPEC press conference should be quite telling for oil.
The x5 refers to Elliott Wave's extended 5th wave.
Following is a link to the http://www.ElliottWave.com site with free education and seminars - This is the only serious, professional (and official) source I would care to consult:
However, there are other available techniques to do so, such as analyzing the Elliott Wave structure and looking for its "Rule of Alterations". In sum, given an impulse wave, which is currently the case (i.e.: points 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 are forming an impulse), it is quite frequent that if Wave-2 is short and simple, then Wave 4 could develop into a much more lingering, complex system).
Hence, the chart I have posted, which assumes that Point-4 is complete, may not necessarily be showing the true and final residence of Point-4, IF and only if price were to rally ABOVE the current level of Point-4 before resuming the dominant downward course into a 5th wave completion.
By this method, if this EW's Rule of Alterations were to occur, then I would expect a protraction or delay before price returns towards its bearish target at 21.02.
Is this making sense?
1 - A fake out to the downside could occur as soon as this or next week, allowing price to rally to the two structural levels as defined. The first level is the most probable were a rally to occur, since per Elliott Wave rule, termination of Wave-4 could NOT occur within the territory of Wave-1, so a rallying into 76.01 is more probable than one at 91.21.
1 - The chart shows the width of Wave-2 compared to that of Wave-4, which per EW's Rule of Alternations would occur over a wider timespan than Wave-2.
2 - A "reverse engineering" using Fibonaccis 1.618 extension was use to define 76.01 relative to the most recent nadir, assuming that a rallying could occur
3 - Red arrows highlight a possible structural validation, capping any relief rally and keeping price in line with 76.01.
@millie, this remains all speculative, but within technical possibilities - Thank you for your inquiry.
I would have to make 3 assumptions:
1 - Banks are excluding any technical considerations other than a practical scale that matters to their level: Weekly. So, any action of central bank or institutional bank magnitude is best considered at this appreciable, albeit glacial-pace, level;
2 - The commentary is purely technical, based on price action, thus not including any indicator or other price-moving event;
3 - My interpretation of the quote is biased by my Model's pre-defined target, as follows:
As of this day, price is already off and above its weekly nadir, moving in the presumed direction I have discussed yesterday, where I speculated that as of this time, there is a good chance that a relief rally might occur - The extent of which is likely to be structurally-defined.
A "W" shape move can be interpreted by the following two charts:
1 - Price moves within a geometry that carves out a lower base of a W:
2 - Price is about to spouse the interim trend I have illustrated on our last discussion, carving out the following speculative pathway:
In either case, there are two important things to glean out of the article:
1 - There remains a significant uncertainty as to the bottom of the decline
2 - The probability of a rally is lower (15%) than that which is speculated.
For reasons that are obvious, I will stick to my Predictive/Forecasting Model. It offers no opinion. Just a trend, strength, and extent of a move marked by a target.
@minnie - To answer your question, I would turn to Elliott Wave analysis, and look into the composition of the recent price action - I am NOT an expert in Elliott Wave, and I would say that they are really only a few and rare handful experts, all of whom work with Robert Prechter (anyone else, and I would simply cast doubt, so please, extend that cloudy doubt upon me as well, as I may be wrong, as well).
Simply put, the bearish moves that I have highlighted are impulses, which move forward and downward, with a 5-wave internal construction. Each of the wave ends by its sequential number, from 1 to 5 - See chart:
What is the most important about Elliott Wave analysis when it comes to guessing 1) whether a move is complete, and 2) whether there is going to be a fast or prolonged subsequent move, is to look at:
1 - The internal composition of each impulses that make up the large impulse. So, I have highlighted the larger impulses within a small square, and regarding the last move, I have highlighted the 5th wave, whch moves in the direction of the larger impulse, and thus should behave itself as an impulse. You will notice that it appears to be missing a 5th wave, and that a 4th wave is STILL underway.
I have used the prior "TARGET HIT" level as a probable level of retracement, and used that height to target a termination level for Wave-5 of the larger move, to coincide also with the internal Wave-5 of the smaller move as well, both finding a possible rest at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
2 - The Rule of Alternations strikes a balance between protracted consolidations that may appear in either Wave-2 or Wave-4. In this case, I have highlighted in ROMAN NUMERALS I and II both instances where these correction occur, once in which a prolonged development of the Wave-2 occurred (large Roman numeral "I"), balanced against a shorter duration of the Wave-4 both being part of the larger bearish impulse.
ow, if you set sight on the INTERNAL structure of the current development of that larger move Wave-5, you will see that a similar insidious development is occurring in the internal wave-2,and that a balancing simplicity might develop out of the internal wave-4 as it reaches for a probably limited rally (up to the FORMER target defined by the Predictive/Forecasting Model), as respective of Elliott Wave's Rule of Alternations.
Is this answering your question at all?
Hope it clarifies a few things.
Price continues to meander, following long-term bearish forecast:
Expect an interim - albeit limited - reaction to the upside as price is likely to find support at the 29.60 level, approximating a 1.618-Fibonacci extension handle. In any case, the long-term 21.02 target remains intact and in force.