4xForecaster
Short

Consolidation Capt At 60.65; Fllor Opened To 21.02 | $WTIC

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
2 years ago
Friends,

Predictive/forecasting model suggests a limited upside with a potential retracement target and cap as follows:

1 - TG-Hi = 56.79 - 04 FEB 2015, representing a low-probability, high-reversibility target

and

2 - 60.75 -- 04 FEB 2015, representing a "terminal velocity" capping value.

The taut value in RSI at 4.8489 corresponded to the recent nadir in price at 43.56. At this point, one would expect a recoiling of RSI back to its 30-line. Were to to occur, there would not necessarily be a proportionate range traveled by price, as bears are likely to continue weighing on price action in a way that may correspond to the Model's defined target overhead.

In fact, a higher low in RSI value would be sufficient to throw price to a lower-low value, at a level that would correspond to the model's target-low at 21.02 - This nominal target carries a low-probability attainment, but high-reversibility potential, if and once reached.

This overall price action is similarly anticipated in the $Brent's chart, posted recently with its own bearish target - See analysis/forecast here:
-
Crude oil Nears Support; Bearish Outlook | $UKOil #Brent #Forex
.

It now seems quite a distant past when last year, I offered this forecast off of a Wolfe Wave:
-
Early Bullish Reversal; Wolfe Waves | $BRENT $OIL #Oil $UKOil
.


OVERALL:

$USOil is caught within a bearish impulse, given a probable respite in the form of a consolidation. Model anticipates a capped reaction to levels defined in the chart, with a lingering bearish bias until the vicinity of 21.02 is reached - At which point, it will be time to re-evaluate the true reversibility nature of this nominal target.

Stay tuned,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster

Linked-In:
David Alcindor
-----
5 months ago
Comment: 09 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

$UKOil versus $USOil - Relative strength chart continues towards the 0.92 forecast:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
4 months ago
Comment: 28 JUL 2016 - Chart Update:

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Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
CajunXChange
2 years ago
Yep...Almost exactly;:
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+2 Reply
CajunXChange
2 years ago
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More confirmation. Short term target before going short.
56.61.
Good work
+1 Reply
Ansari
2 years ago
hi David.
many thanks.
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+1 Reply
13 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
----------
$USOIL likely capped at 0.786 #fibonacci reciprocal, lining up with forecast:

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@tradingview $WTI #WTIC #oilandgas
----------


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David Alcindor
Reply
27 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
----------
$USOIL hit 49.29 target; Reversed into a probable 49.79 projection top:

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@tradingview #usoil #oilandgas $WTI #wtic
----------


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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Benjamin_ 4xForecaster
2 years ago
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+1 Reply
Benjamin_ Benjamin_
2 years ago
Update
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+1 Reply
Benjamin_ Benjamin_
2 years ago
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Benjamin_ Benjamin_
2 years ago
Target Hit
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Reply
03 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$UKOIL vs $USOIL chart completes symmetry around target. Break < 1.18 opens floor to bearish target:

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@tradingview
----------


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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
16 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
-----------
$USOIL carves out new low; 43.56 floor breached; Opens to 21.02 Target:

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@tradingview $WTI #oilandgas #oil #usoil
----------


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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Benjamin_ 4xForecaster
2 years ago
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Benjamin_ Benjamin_
2 years ago
Update:
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+1 Reply
millie PRO
2 years ago
What does the capping value of 60.75 mean? Thanks. A reversal and resumption of the downtrend? Thanks.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO millie
2 years ago
Hello @millie. By capping, I mean resistance.

David
Reply
20 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
---------
$USOIL reached geometric 5'; Expecting reversal to reach 50.0 at a minimum:

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$WTI #oilandgas #wtic $UKOil $brent
----------


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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
08 MAY 2015 - Update;

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USOIL hit forecast ceiling target; Forecast remains bearish:

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$WTI #wti #oilandgas #usoil $brent $UKOil #ukoil
----------


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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
13 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USOIL remains subdued to 60.75 target; Outlook remains bearish, as forecast:

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$brent #crudeoil #usoil $UKOil $WTI
----------


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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
04 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USOIL continues to bump head against resistance as forecast; Remains bearish, eyeing 21.02 per Model:

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$WTI $crude
----------


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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
G_Man 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David,

Just wondering how your bearish forecast fits with your bullish forecast on xxxUSD pairs?

It makes sense to me that a weak dollar would equal a higher oil price. I understand that's not always the way it works.

I'm still on the fence as to where we go from here, but have bullish trades open on everything against the dollar short term. Tomorrows OPEC press conference should be quite telling for oil.

Thanks, G
Reply
10 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USOIL remains intent on 21.02 per Predictive/Forecasting Model:

snapshot


$WTI #crude #usoil #oilandgas #wtic
-----------


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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Realisto_FX PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
David, a notice from your weekly chart. Did you count 5 waves based on Wolfe ? I understood point 4 is always lower than point 1 . Also , could be possible we are just leaving point 2 of a new wave ?
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+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Realisto_FX
a year ago
Yes, the Weekly enumeration is EW-based.

David
+1 Reply
18 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$UKOIL vs. $USOIL rel. strength chart continues to fall as forecast:

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$Brent $WTI #crudeoil #oilandgas #oilprices
----------


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David Alcindor
Reply
28 JUN 2015 - UPDATE

Found this older chart from last NOV 2014 - Hit one target, remains open to further downside. Background Elliott Wave morphology remains incomplete to the down-side, supporting directional bias of the Predictive/Forecasting Model:

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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
06 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USOIL continues to roll as forecast; Gains bearish momentum:

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$WTI $crude #oilandgas #oilprices #usoil $CAD
----------


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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
takefal 4xForecaster
a year ago
What exactly is x5 point in the above graph David?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO takefal
a year ago
Hello @takefal,

The x5 refers to Elliott Wave's extended 5th wave.

Following is a link to the www.ElliottWave.com site with free education and seminars - This is the only serious, professional (and official) source I would care to consult:

- http://www.elliottwave.com/tutorial/Lesson2/2-2.htm


David
+1 Reply
07 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USOIL rolls as forecast; Hit first target; Predictive Model still intent on 21.02 in WEEKLY chart:

snapshot


$WTI #usoil
----------


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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
24 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USOIL mulls next bearish target; Remains limited to the upside:

snapshot


$WTI #crude #oil #oilprices #oilandgas #usoil
----------


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David Alcindor
Reply
24 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$WTI - The Big Picture: Predictive Model eyes 21.02:

chart
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$USOil #wti #usoil #crude #oil #oilprices #oilandgas
----------


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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
02 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USOIL nears 3rd and last bearish target at 45.67; Bears meet resistance:

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$WTI #wti #crude #oil #oilandgas #usoil
----------


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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
03 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USOIL hit last third target in H4; Larger TF still aiming lower:

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#usoil $WTI #wti #crude #oil #oilandgas $brent
----------


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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
09 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USOIL hit all 4 targets; Interim rally probable capped at 38.6%, L/T remains bearish:

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$WTI #crude #oil #oilandgas
----------


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David Alcindor
Reply
11 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USOIL - Monthly:

#elliottwave impulse swing likely to break 42.01 floor as 5th internal IMP unfolds:

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$WTI #oil
----------


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David Alcindor
Reply
13 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$WTI follows forecast; Broke structure at 42.01; Opens floor to 21.02 target:

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$usoil #crude #oil #oilandgas $brent
----------


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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
millie PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi David,

Is there a way to estimate the speed for reaching the end of wave 5 (e.g. anything like from 2 to 3 last year)? Thanks!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO millie
a year ago
Hello @millie - The Predictive/Forecasting Model does not have a way to define timing.

However, there are other available techniques to do so, such as analyzing the Elliott Wave structure and looking for its "Rule of Alterations". In sum, given an impulse wave, which is currently the case (i.e.: points 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 are forming an impulse), it is quite frequent that if Wave-2 is short and simple, then Wave 4 could develop into a much more lingering, complex system).

Hence, the chart I have posted, which assumes that Point-4 is complete, may not necessarily be showing the true and final residence of Point-4, IF and only if price were to rally ABOVE the current level of Point-4 before resuming the dominant downward course into a 5th wave completion.

By this method, if this EW's Rule of Alterations were to occur, then I would expect a protraction or delay before price returns towards its bearish target at 21.02.

Is this making sense?


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Here is how the chart could/would look like:

snapshot


1 - A fake out to the downside could occur as soon as this or next week, allowing price to rally to the two structural levels as defined. The first level is the most probable were a rally to occur, since per Elliott Wave rule, termination of Wave-4 could NOT occur within the territory of Wave-1, so a rallying into 76.01 is more probable than one at 91.21.


TECH-NOTE:

1 - The chart shows the width of Wave-2 compared to that of Wave-4, which per EW's Rule of Alternations would occur over a wider timespan than Wave-2.
2 - A "reverse engineering" using Fibonaccis 1.618 extension was use to define 76.01 relative to the most recent nadir, assuming that a rallying could occur
3 - Red arrows highlight a possible structural validation, capping any relief rally and keeping price in line with 76.01.

@millie, this remains all speculative, but within technical possibilities - Thank you for your inquiry.

Best,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
millie PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Thanks very much for taking the time to clarify! I replied before I saw this example and had googled alternation.
+1 Reply
millie PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
I believe you are saying since wave 2 was a sharp move then wave 4 will likely be protracted and complex based on the alternation.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO millie
a year ago
Exactly.

David
+2 Reply
14 AUG 2015 - NEWS:

"Think Crude Oil’s Low Now? Try This Bear Case… "

Source: Wall Street Journal - http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/08/14/thinks-crude-oils-low-now-try-this-bear-case/


David
+1 Reply
millie PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
How do you interpret:
The bank also slashed its main scenario for oil, citing “a double or triple W-shaped price path.”
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO millie
a year ago
@millie,

I would have to make 3 assumptions:

1 - Banks are excluding any technical considerations other than a practical scale that matters to their level: Weekly. So, any action of central bank or institutional bank magnitude is best considered at this appreciable, albeit glacial-pace, level;
2 - The commentary is purely technical, based on price action, thus not including any indicator or other price-moving event;
and
3 - My interpretation of the quote is biased by my Model's pre-defined target, as follows:

snapshot



As of this day, price is already off and above its weekly nadir, moving in the presumed direction I have discussed yesterday, where I speculated that as of this time, there is a good chance that a relief rally might occur - The extent of which is likely to be structurally-defined.

A "W" shape move can be interpreted by the following two charts:

1 - Price moves within a geometry that carves out a lower base of a W:
snapshot


OR

2 - Price is about to spouse the interim trend I have illustrated on our last discussion, carving out the following speculative pathway:
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OVERALL:

In either case, there are two important things to glean out of the article:
1 - There remains a significant uncertainty as to the bottom of the decline
2 - The probability of a rally is lower (15%) than that which is speculated.

For reasons that are obvious, I will stick to my Predictive/Forecasting Model. It offers no opinion. Just a trend, strength, and extent of a move marked by a target.

Best,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
millie PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Very nice analysis!

Given the recent rally, which path (1 or 2) does the model lean?
Reply
14 AUG 2015 - NEWS:

Baker Hughes Rig Count (14/Aug): 884 (prev 884)

Sources:
- http://www.bakerhughes.com/rig-count
- http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=79687&p=irol-reportsother


NOTE: Unchanged = Nadir? If so, then the speculative price pathway may be on its way.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
26 AUG 2015 - News:

"Oil Industry Needs to Find Half a Trillion Dollars to Survive"
- Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-26/oil-industry-needs-to-find-half-a-trillion-dollars-to-survive


David
+3 Reply
maurotondo
a year ago

change in strategy from short to long?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO maurotondo
a year ago
@maurotondo - This would depend on your timeframe.


David
+1 Reply
maurotondo 4xForecaster
a year ago
I'm buying my first long positions. 1d
Reply
31 AUG 2015 - Chart update:

@minnie - To answer your question, I would turn to Elliott Wave analysis, and look into the composition of the recent price action - I am NOT an expert in Elliott Wave, and I would say that they are really only a few and rare handful experts, all of whom work with Robert Prechter (anyone else, and I would simply cast doubt, so please, extend that cloudy doubt upon me as well, as I may be wrong, as well).

Simply put, the bearish moves that I have highlighted are impulses, which move forward and downward, with a 5-wave internal construction. Each of the wave ends by its sequential number, from 1 to 5 - See chart:


snapshot



What is the most important about Elliott Wave analysis when it comes to guessing 1) whether a move is complete, and 2) whether there is going to be a fast or prolonged subsequent move, is to look at:

1 - The internal composition of each impulses that make up the large impulse. So, I have highlighted the larger impulses within a small square, and regarding the last move, I have highlighted the 5th wave, whch moves in the direction of the larger impulse, and thus should behave itself as an impulse. You will notice that it appears to be missing a 5th wave, and that a 4th wave is STILL underway.

I have used the prior "TARGET HIT" level as a probable level of retracement, and used that height to target a termination level for Wave-5 of the larger move, to coincide also with the internal Wave-5 of the smaller move as well, both finding a possible rest at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.

2 - The Rule of Alternations strikes a balance between protracted consolidations that may appear in either Wave-2 or Wave-4. In this case, I have highlighted in ROMAN NUMERALS I and II both instances where these correction occur, once in which a prolonged development of the Wave-2 occurred (large Roman numeral "I"), balanced against a shorter duration of the Wave-4 both being part of the larger bearish impulse.

ow, if you set sight on the INTERNAL structure of the current development of that larger move Wave-5, you will see that a similar insidious development is occurring in the internal wave-2,and that a balancing simplicity might develop out of the internal wave-4 as it reaches for a probably limited rally (up to the FORMER target defined by the Predictive/Forecasting Model), as respective of Elliott Wave's Rule of Alternations.

Is this answering your question at all?


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Sorry, @millie - I misspelled your alias/name - This above explanation attempts to answer your question from about 2 hours ago: "Given the recent rally, which path (1 or 2) does the model lean? "

Hope it clarifies a few things.


David
+1 Reply
millie PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
No worries regarding the spelling of my alias!

I will read up on Robert Prechter and many thanks for taking the time to clarify things. I think I understand what you are saying with the lower higher and lower low for wave 4.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO millie
a year ago
Here is a useful resources on EW's Alternations from Robert Prechter's own Elliott Wave authoritative site - I believe this to be the one and only authority, as they train or teach everyone else ... For FREE:

http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics4.htm

David
+3 Reply
01 SEP 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USOIL still following forecast pathway capped by prior target; Bearish:

snapshot


$WTI #crude #oil #oilandgas $brent
----------


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
Yahia.Awes 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi David,

I have one here.
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+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Yahia.Awes
a year ago
Yes, it definitely carries that potential - Great find.

David
Reply
Yahia.Awes 4xForecaster
a year ago
Thanks David, if it confirms now at the 4th point we might see it working.
Reply
16 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn update:


$UKOIL v. $USOIL - $brent catches up with the declining $WTI:

snapshot


#crude #oil #oilandgas #oilprices


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
21 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:

No change in Predictive/Forecasting Model's target:


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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
09 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


As per forecast, interim price has rallied. However, any further rallying is expected to remain limited. Bearish target at 21.02 defined last February remains intact and in force:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
14 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


Price reached then retraced from the defined range, likely completed a corrective wave-4. Bears remain in charge; Predictive/Forecasting Model's abysmal target remain intact and in force:


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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
21 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


Price continues to follow forecast; It appears that the start of a renewed move t the downside is underway:

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David Alcindor
Reply
smitheric1970 PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Thanks Dave, love your work! I see the same target in my chart; however, as the mode price of 45.3 (ish) seems to be very strong, do you think theres a chance we will drop down to potential the 40 level and then consolidate between 40 level that a consolidation process will occur between 38 and 51 prior to making lower lows? The only reason this crossed my mind was the last bounce up to 51.

Thanks!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO smitheric1970
a year ago
Hello @smitheric1970 - Yes, I expect the move to the lower lows to be incremental, meandering from a lower-low and revisiting prior lower-highs - This would be expected not only from the perspective of any Elliott Wave's Rule of Alternations (the second consolidation is expected to be more complex whenever the first consolidation is at its simplest morphology), but also from the perspective of a market that is expected to inject bad fundamentals spurring more selling against institutional buyers. Typically, these commodity-based waves will tend to bring price to deep Fibonacci retracements, or even extensions, in the order of 0.886 to 1.313, 1.414 or 1.618.

David
Reply
smitheric1970 PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Awesome, thanks for your time and explanation. I am a big fan of your work! I think that prices are ultimately looking for a 38 resistance level so the final bottoming process can complete. Possibly another lower high at 43 level then another lower high at 38. Good trading sir!
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+1 Reply
27 OCT 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

$USOIL remains tethered to dashed forecast line:

snapshot


$WTI #oilandgas #crude #oil #brent $UKOil #gasprices


David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO
11 months ago
06 JAN 2016 - Chart Update:

Forecast from last February 04th 2015, eyeing bearish target at 21.02, remains intact and in force:

snapshot


Best,


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
smitheric1970 PRO 4xForecaster
11 months ago
Nice, thanks David! Weekly close below this 34.73 this week will be harsh on oil. I think we break 31 as soon as next week.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
10 months ago
13 JAN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price continues to meander, following long-term bearish forecast:
snapshot


Expect an interim - albeit limited - reaction to the upside as price is likely to find support at the 29.60 level, approximating a 1.618-Fibonacci extension handle. In any case, the long-term 21.02 target remains intact and in force.

Best,


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
10 months ago
15 JAN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Yes, today we hit the 1.618-Fibonacci level, but no: This is not the bottom ... 21.02 forecast defined last year remains a high-probability target:

snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
10 months ago
A reactive rally may occur, but do not expect it to exceed $40.00, as predefined by the arrow pathway forecast - David
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP 4xForecaster
10 months ago
Great stuff David.
+1 Reply
smitheric1970 PRO 4xForecaster
10 months ago
Agreed, 33.9 seems very strong as current resistance if we get a small bounce. Great analysis sir!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
10 months ago
30 JAN 2015 - Chart Update:

Price remains tethered to forecast. As mentioned before, an overhead structure level near $40.00 should impose a significant resistance to currently advancing bulls:
snapshot


Overall, bears remain in charge - Original forecast dating back February 21st 2015 remain intact and in force.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
10 months ago
TYPO - Forecast dates back to February 04th, 2015, whereas the forecast target was and remains $21.02 - David
+2 Reply
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