Consolidation Capt At 60.65; Fllor Opened To 21.02 | $WTIC

FX:USOIL   CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)

Predictive/forecasting model suggests a limited upside with a potential retracement target and cap as follows:

1 - TG-Hi = 56.79 - 04 FEB 2015, representing a low-probability, high-reversibility target


2 - 60.75 -- 04 FEB 2015, representing a "terminal velocity" capping value.

The taut value in RSI at 4.8489 corresponded to the recent nadir in price at 43.56. At this point, one would expect a recoiling of RSI back to its 30-line. Were to to occur, there would not necessarily be a proportionate range traveled by price, as bears are likely to continue weighing on price action in a way that may correspond to the Model's defined target overhead.

In fact, a higher low in RSI value would be sufficient to throw price to a lower-low value, at a level that would correspond to the model's target-low at 21.02 - This nominal target carries a low-probability attainment, but high-reversibility potential, if and once reached.

This overall price action is similarly anticipated in the $Brent's chart, posted recently with its own bearish target - See analysis/forecast here:
- .

It now seems quite a distant past when last year, I offered this forecast off of a Wolfe Wave:
- .


$USOil is caught within a bearish impulse, given a probable respite in the form of a consolidation. Model anticipates a capped reaction to levels defined in the chart, with a lingering bearish bias until the vicinity of 21.02 is reached - At which point, it will be time to re-evaluate the true reversibility nature of this nominal target.

Stay tuned,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


David Alcindor
Comment: 09 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

$UKOil versus $USOil - Relative strength chart continues towards the 0.92 forecast:


David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Comment: 28 JUL 2016 - Chart Update:


David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
30 JAN 2015 - Chart Update:

Price remains tethered to forecast. As mentioned before, an overhead structure level near $40.00 should impose a significant resistance to currently advancing bulls:

Overall, bears remain in charge - Original forecast dating back February 21st 2015 remain intact and in force.

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster 4xForecaster
TYPO - Forecast dates back to February 04th, 2015, whereas the forecast target was and remains $21.02 - David
+2 Reply
15 JAN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Yes, today we hit the 1.618-Fibonacci level, but no: This is not the bottom ... 21.02 forecast defined last year remains a high-probability target:

David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster 4xForecaster
A reactive rally may occur, but do not expect it to exceed $40.00, as predefined by the arrow pathway forecast - David
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie 4xForecaster
Great stuff David.
+1 Reply
smitheric1970 4xForecaster
Agreed, 33.9 seems very strong as current resistance if we get a small bounce. Great analysis sir!
+1 Reply
13 JAN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price continues to meander, following long-term bearish forecast:

Expect an interim - albeit limited - reaction to the upside as price is likely to find support at the 29.60 level, approximating a 1.618-Fibonacci extension handle. In any case, the long-term 21.02 target remains intact and in force.


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
06 JAN 2016 - Chart Update:

Forecast from last February 04th 2015, eyeing bearish target at 21.02, remains intact and in force:


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
smitheric1970 4xForecaster
Nice, thanks David! Weekly close below this 34.73 this week will be harsh on oil. I think we break 31 as soon as next week.
+1 Reply
27 OCT 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

$USOIL remains tethered to dashed forecast line:

$WTI #oilandgas #crude #oil #brent $UKOil #gasprices

David Alcindor
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