Oil Daily Analysis - Baby bull growing up?

FX:UKOIL   CFDs on Crude Oil (Brent)
My previous bias was still short, but price moving above 57.75 yet again invalidated this.

57.75 is now my new line in the sand. Above I'm after longs, below I'm after shorts.

A couple of interesting things to note:

- D+ is above 20 yet again, indicating the bulls are showing some strength and might have woken up from their multi-month coma.

- Ichimoku still shows mixed signals and is probably overall more short than long, but price has moved above the Tenkan Sen. In the short term, the Tenkan Sen at 57.75 is now my new line in the sand. In the medium to long term I'm still not sure it'll really take off north.

- IF it goes long, I expect it to be a fairly choppy ride back to 70 (and maybe eventually 80) because fundamentally nothing supports a rocket-style launch to the sky. The 3 "X" mark areas where I'm expecting choppiness .

- ADX is still below 20, something to keep in mind. Generally a new trrend is only really confirmed if ADX is above 20, so for now, more ranging crap is totally possible. We're getting close though, just 5 points below the magic mark!

As price is above my line in the sand, I am now in favor of longs. Having said that, I'm not telling you to go long "right now"!! It's just my medium term daily chart analysis giving me a bias for H4 analysis and eventually entries on the H1 and M15.

Cliff             notes: Long above 57.75, short below 57.75, potential ride to 70 will be choppy and more ranging is still possible
Aaaand we're below the line in the sand again. ADX edged a bit closer to 20 overnight but still not good enough for a proper trend.

Not easy to trade anything but short term like that...
Inventory reports out tomorrow- trade safely
Yup, and today's news wasn't exactly great for oil bulls.

Like I said, ADX still below 20 which suggests further choppiness is still likely. The best spot to enter is very often right when the ADX crosses 20...which hasn't happend yet. Might range a bit longer or even change direction again.

Still sticking with the 57.75 line in the sand for now.

GL to you :)
Reply TradeApe
Thank you. I hope your trade goes accordingly. I will remain subdued with oil until the news is released so I can trade technicalities only.
Oh, I'm not long atm. This is just my base bias for taking trades should I get a good signal on the lower timeframes ;)

So kinda sitting on my hands too atm.
Ichimoku is blowing my mind sometimes. Look at how price on the H1 (at least temporarily) stopped the drop right on the Tenkan Sen (orange MA).

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